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A Plethora of House Polls

In the last two days, 14 polls in 13 competitive House districts were publicly released, and they all tell a unique story. The synopsis is below (in alphabetical order):

CO-3

GQR Research – Mitsch Bush (D) 43%; Boebert (R) 42%

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (8/3-6; 400 CO-3 likely voters) went into the field to test Democratic candidate Diane Mitsch Bush versus Republican Lauren Boebert who unseated Rep. Scott Tipton (R-Cortez) in the June Republican primary.

The result here is not particularly surprising considering Ms. Boebert was a shocking upset winner in the GOP primary. Ms. Mitsch Bush has a huge cash advantage, but Republicans will likely rally around Boebert in a district where President Trump should comfortably win.

IL-13

RMG Research – Londrigan (D) 43%; Rep. Davis (R) 41%

After seeing the 2018 election between Rep. Rodney Davis* (R-Taylorville) and challenger Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D) evolve into a 50.3 – 49.6% result, the pair returns for Round 2. The RMG poll (7/27-8/7; 400 IL-13 likely voters), though over a very long sampling period, finds what has been clear for some time, that the 2020 edition will yield another tight race.

IN-5

WPA Intelligence – Spartz (R) 47%; Hale (D) 40%

The new WPA Intelligence poll (8/4-6; 400 IN-5 likely voters) produces the opposite result of a survey we saw from the GBAO research organization in late June (6/25-28; 500 IN-5 likely voters). The latter study projected Democratic former state Representative and ex-Lt. Governor nominee Christina Hale topping Republican state Senator Victoria Spartz, 51-45%. According to the current WPA data, Sen. Spartz, a Ukrainian immigrant, now holds a 47-40% advantage. The latter numbers are more consistent with the district’s voting history. Incumbent Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Carmel) is retiring.

MI-6

RMG Research – Hoadley (D) 40%; Rep. Upton (R) 36%

RMG conducted this poll (7/30-8/6; 500 MI-6 registered voters) during the August 4 Michigan primary voting period, which likely brought undue attention to the Democratic side since their competitive primary produced a close result. Though it is not surprising they find the race close in this changing CD, seeing Rep. Fred Upton*, who has won 17 consecutive congressional elections, lagging only at 36% appears unrealistically low. The Democratic nominee is Kalamazoo state Rep. Jon Hoadley.

MN-1

RMG Research – Rep. Hagedorn (R) 41%; Feehan (D) 38%

The RMG data here (7/31-8/7; 500 MN-1 registered voters) finding freshman Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Blue Earth/Rochester) topping 2018 nominee Dan Feehan (D) by three percentage points counters the Victoria Research & Consulting data (7/19-23; 511 MN-1 likely voters) that posted the Democratic nominee to a two point edge. The fact that this race is polling close is no surprise. The two men faced each other in the 2018 open seat race and Mr. Hagedorn’s victory margin was only 50.1 – 49.7%.

MN-7

Tarrance Group – Fischbach (R) 52%; Rep. Peterson (D) 42%

This survey produced perhaps the most surprising result of the entire polling group. The Tarrance Group survey (8/2-5; 413 MN-7 likely voters) finds challenger Michelle Fischbach, the former Lt. Governor and state Senate President, leading veteran Representative and House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes) by ten full percentage points. This is the strongest Trump district in the country that elects a Democrat to the House, so the Republican number is not particularly eyebrow raising. Considering that Rep. Peterson has won 15 consecutive congressional races here, this type of early result is unexpected. The 7th District campaign is clearly a top-tier Republican challenge race.

NJ-2

GQR Research – Kennedy (D) 51%; Rep. Van Drew (R) 46%

Global Strategy Group – Kennedy (D) 46%; Rep. Van Drew (R) 45%

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (8/4-6; 400 NJ-2 likely voters) and the Global Strategy Group (8/1-5; 400 NJ-2 likely voters) were in the field within the same time frame and both produce leads for mental health advocate Amy Kennedy (D) over party-switching freshman Congressman Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis Township/Atlantic City). The 2nd District leans Republican, which should help Mr. Van Drew. After the Congressman changed parties halfway through his first term in the House, it became obvious that his 2020 re-election effort would become highly competitive.

NY-24

RMG Research – Rep. Katko (R) 40%; Balter (D) 37%

This is a re-match from 2018, when Rep. John Katko* (R-Syracuse) defeated college professor Dana Balter, 52-46%. The new RMG Research survey (7/24-8/4; 500 NY-24 registered voters) is in line with that result. The Upstate New York seats are volatile, and another tight congressional race is again expected here.

NC-11

DCCC Targeting & Analytics – Cawthorn (R) 46%; Davis (D) 41%

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Targeting & Analytics Department routinely surveys districts around the country, and often times their own candidates fare much better in their results than in other polling or actual ballot totals. Such could be the case here, as Republican Madison Cawthorn is expected to defeat retired Air Force officer Moe Davis (D) by more than five points in what is a safe open Republican western North Carolina district.

Mr. Cawthorn, who will turn 25 years of age before the election, was a 66% winner in the Republican runoff against a candidate endorsed by both President Donald Trump and former 11th District US Rep. Mark Meadows.

PA-10

DFM Research – DePasquale (D) 46%; Rep. Perry (D) 44%

Recent polling projects Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg) and two-term State Auditor Eugene DePasquale (D) to be locked in a close election battle. While a previously published poll found Rep. Perry leading his Democratic general election opponent by three percentage points, a new early August DFM Research survey gives Mr. DePasquale a two-point edge, 46-44%. Expect this contest to remain in toss-up mode all the way to Election Day.

TX-10

RMG Research – Rep. McCaul (R) 46%; Siegel (D) 39%

Veteran Rep. Michael McCaul* (R-Austin) had a close call in 2018 and sees a bit more early breathing room against 2018 Democratic nominee Mike Siegel according to the latest RMG Research poll. They find Mr. McCaul, who was originally elected in 2004, jumping out to a 46-39% advantage.

TX-22

RMG Research – Nehls (R) 39%; Kulkarni (D) 39%

Countering a late July poll from Meeting Street Insights (7/19-22; 400 TX-22 registered voters) that found Ft. Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls* (R) leading es-Foreign Service officer Sri Preston Kulkarni (D) 44-32%, RMG Research (7/27; 8/2; 500 TX-22 registered voters) finds the two candidates tied at 39% apiece. The district, formerly a safe Republican seat, has been moving more toward the political center so a tie at this point in the campaign seems a reasonable conclusion.

TX-23

Public Opinion Strategies – Ortiz Jones (D) 41%; Gonzales (R) 40%

Navy non-commissioned officer Tony Gonzales* was finally declared the winner of the July 14 runoff by just 45 votes over homebuilder Raul Reyes, but the latter man is forcing a recount. Despite 2018 Democratic nominee Gina Ortiz Jones winning her current nomination in March and raising over $4 million, a new Public Opinion Strategies survey gives her only a one-point lead in early August. This seat that stretches from San Antonio to Austin is a true swing district where the winner rarely exceeds 50% of the vote.