Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) has been on a political roller coaster this year to say the least. 

At the beginning of the 2024 election cycle, looking at adverse re-election prospects in District 3, a seat she won by just 546 votes in 2022 which proved the closest House contest in the country, Rep. Boebert decided to take advantage of Rep. Ken Buck (R) retiring in the eastern Colorado seat and announced she would seek another term from his 4th District.

The move was met with surprise but is understandable. She looked to be a severe underdog in her western slope District 3, but moving across Colorado to the safest Republican seat in the Centennial State, assuming she could win a Republican primary, looked to be a shrewd move.

Her toughest Republican opposition appeared to be coming from state House Minority Leader Mike Lynch (R-Weld County), but a previous arrest for drunk driving and brandishing a firearm while intoxicated forced him out of his legislative leadership position and his congressional campaign never developed as a result.

Former state Senator Ted Harvey also looked like a strong Boebert competitor, but he failed to reach the 30% threshold at the nominating convention to secure a primary ballot position. Because he didn’t file signature petitions, Mr. Harvey was out of the race when he lost at the convention. For her part, Ms. Boebert secured the first ballot position at the convention and submitted petitions as a political insurance policy.

Logan County Supervisor and ex-state Senator Jerry Sonnenberg and state Rep. Richard Holtorf (R-Akron) have been unable to raise the resources to compete with Boebert, thus their campaigns have failed to solidify.

All this being the case, Rep. Boebert is the clear favorite to claim the regular term Republican nomination on June 25th. Usually, winning the GOP primary is enough to secure this seat, but a recently released general election poll tells a different story.

Gravis Marketing released a recent survey of Colorado’s 4th District (5/22-24; 423 CO-4 likely general election voters; online & text) and finds retired Marine Corps officer Ike McCorkle (D) leading Rep. Boebert, 41-27%, in a hypothetical general election pairing.

This result is surprising in a 4th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+26, which is the safest Republican seat in the Centennial State. Former President Donald Trump defeated President Joe Biden here, 58-39%, and Rep. Buck averaged 62% of the vote in his five successful elections.

Rep. Boebert has dominated all of her opponents in fundraising, and Mr. McCorkle has the most resources of any Democratic candidate, though of the $987,000 raised through the March 31st campaign finance disclosure deadline he reported just over $157,000 remaining in his campaign account.

While McCorkle may have the most money and looks strong in the early general election poll, he is not home free as the Democratic nominee.

A special election will also occur on the primary election day to fill the balance of resigned Rep. Buck’s final term. The 4th District Democratic Committee members bypassed McCorkle, a two-time nominee for the seat, and instead chose political speechwriter Trish Calvarese as their special election nominee. Therefore, this likely gives her a major push toward claiming the party nomination for the regular term.

The Republican special election nominee is former local mayor Greg Lopez. Rep. Boebert did not enter the special election, largely because she would have been forced to resign from the 3rd District seat had she won, thus creating another Republican vacancy. Instead, the local GOP delegates agreed to support Mr. Lopez, who said he would not run in the regular cycle.

Therefore, the special election dynamics here could become interesting. If Ms. Calvarese scores an unlikely, but possible, upset in the special election, then this seat could transform into a national general election campaign and a situation most unusual in this typically safe, rural Republican district.

Once the GOP primary concludes and Ms. Boebert is nominated, she will then begin coalescing the party behind her candidacy. Additionally, we can expect to see her become attached to GOP presidential nominee Trump who is again likely to flirt with the 60% vote threshold from this district even though he will lose the statewide tally.

The open general election race will probably become more competitive in the early and middle part of the post-June general election cycle, but in the end the most probable outcome is that Ms. Boebert finds a way to hold her new Republican seat