Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) did not close the door on a 2026 challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) when asked about the possibility late last week, but other comments and circumstances suggest that she is unlikely to launch such a campaign.

In any event, expect the Democrats to field a strong candidate against Sen. Collins even if they fail to entice Gov. Mills into running.

As an aside, the Governor was actually laudatory in a comment about Sen. Collins becoming the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Gov. Mills stated that she is “pleased” Collins will have her new position and termed it as “an asset for the State of Maine.” These are not quite the comments one might expect from a future political opponent. 

Additionally, if the daunting fundraising task is not enough to dissuade Mills, who saw $9 million donated to her campaign and outside support efforts as opposed to 14 times that amount in the 2020 Senate race, her age might be a factor in running what promises to be another exhaustive campaign. Gov. Mills will be 78 years of age at the time of the 2026 election, and becoming a freshman Senator at that point in life may not be as enticing as it might have been in previous decades.

In 2020, Sen. Collins beat back a major challenge from then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D). Just from the Democrat’s candidate committee, over $65 million was expended on the effort to defeat Sen. Collins, or twice as much as the incumbent spent. An additional $61 million was spent either aiding Gideon or attacking Collins. The Senator’s outside allies spent about $51 million to promote Collins or tear down Gideon. Therefore, political spending in Maine, a state with just two congressional districts, was at an all-time high.

Sen. Collins would overcome the avalanche of money and resources to score a decisive 50.4 – 41.9% victory in the election from four years ago. Despite the 2020 results, it is apparent that the Democratic leadership wants to again challenge Sen. Collins, even if their eventual Senate nominee faces longer odds of winning in 2026.

Consistently, the pollsters and prognosticators badly missed the 2020 Maine Senate outcome. A total of 22 polls from 15 different research entities were conducted from July 1st through the 2020 election, and Sen. Collins led in none. No political prognosticator projected a Collins victory. Rather, all were suggesting either a Lean Democratic or Toss-up rating.

Aside from Gov. Mills’ name being mentioned in a Senate context, the other individual who surfaces is 2nd District Congressman Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) who again won a close re-election victory in November through the Ranked Choice Voting system. Rep. Golden, a former staff member for Sen. Collins, is an obvious choice to run for the Senate but is reportedly unlikely to challenge his former boss. 

Rep. Golden is more likely interested in the open Governor’s race or running for re-election to a fifth term in the House. His response regarding his future political plans, however, is non-committal even to the point of suggesting he might exit elective politics altogether in 2026. 

The state’s 1st District Representative, Chellie Pingree (D), who was originally elected in 2008 and re-elected with just under 59% of the vote in November, is certainly another prospective Senate candidate, but her name does not yet feature prominently on the list of potential statewide prospects. In 2002, Ms. Pingree challenged Sen. Collins in the incumbent’s first re-election bid and was soundly defeated, 58-42%.

While the Maine 2026 campaign will undoubtedly be contested, the results of the last campaign and Sen. Collins already announcing her intent to seek re-election thus quelling retirement rumors, suggest that we will see a much different 2026 campaign unfolding, one where Sen. Collins will once again be regarded as the favorite.