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Comparing 2016 & 2020

Now that the presidential numbers are final and certified in all 50 states, we can begin to draw comparisons between the two Trump election years and see the states where movement was most significant.

A total of 158,507,118 people are recorded as voting in the 2020 election, an all-time record. In 2016, by comparison, 136,792,535 individuals cast ballots. The current total represents an increase of 15.9 percent. Even those forecasting a turnout of just above 155 million, which seemed outlandish at the time, were low as the 2020 aggregate final vote widely cleared all previous electoral participation records.

As you will see from the following charts, most states performed similarly in 2020 as they did in 2016. In the preponderance of places, both former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden posted better percentages in 2020, though Mr. Trump recorded slightly lower 2020 percentages in 13 states as compared to Mr. Biden falling below 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in only one (Mississippi).

The change factors are largely due to lesser independent and minor party candidates on the 2020 ballot as opposed to 2016 and an increase in first-time voters.

Nationally, as determined in all 50 states, President Trump’s numbers increased an average of one percentage point per state, while Mr. Biden saw a mean average four percent jump over Ms. Clinton’s standing.

The first charts depict President Trump’s state totals in alphabetical order. To reiterate, his per state average gain was 1.0%. The second and third charts shows the state’s in order of the largest gains.

The succeeding Democratic charts illustrate Mr. Biden’s increased performance over that of Ms. Clinton. Though his national per state victory margin over President Trump was low in comparison to 2016 – changing Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and the 2nd District of Nebraska would have changed the national outcome and the aggregate vote margin was only 65,009 – his standing in every state was significantly better than hers. The Biden average per state gain was 4.0%.

STATE

2016 R

2020 R

AVE GAIN

2016 D

2020 D

AVE GAIN

Alabama

62.1%

62.3%

0.2%

34.4%

36.6%

2.2%

Alaska

51.3%

52.8%

1.5%

36.5%

42.8%

6.3%

Arizona

48.7%

49.1%

0.4%

45.1%

49.4%

4.3%

Arkansas

60.6%

62.4%

1.8%

33.6%

34.8%

1.2%

California

31.6%

34.3%

2.7%

61.7%

63.5%

1.8%

Colorado

43.2%

41.9%

-1.3%

48.2%

55.4%

7.2%

Connecticut

40.9%

39.2%

-1.7%

54.6%

59.2%

4.6%

Delaware

41.7%

39.8%

-1.9%

53.1%

58.7%

5.6%

Florida

49.0%

51.2%

2.2%

47.8%

47.9%

0.1%

Georgia

50.8%

49.2%

-1.6%

45.6%

49.5%

3.9%

Hawaii

29.4%

33.9%

4.5%

61.0%

63.1%

2.1%

Idaho

59.3%

63.8%

4.5%

27.5%

33.1%

5.6%

Illinois

38.8%

40.6%

1.8%

55.8%

57.5%

1.7%

Indiana

56.9%

57.0%

0.1%

37.8%

41.0%

3.2%

Iowa

51.2%

52.8%

1.6%

41.7%

44.7%

3.0%

Kansas

56.6%

56.2%

-0.4%

36.0%

41.6%

5.6%

Kentucky

62.5%

62.1%

-0.4%

32.7%

36.1%

3.4%

Louisiana

58.1%

58.5%

0.4%

38.4%

39.8%

1.4%

Maine

43.5%

43.6%

0.1%

46.4%

52.5%

6.1%

Maryland

33.9%

32.2%

-1.7%

60.3%

65.4%

5.1%

Massachusetts

32.3%

39.1%

6.8%

59.0%

65.1%

6.1%

Michigan

47.6%

47.8%

0.2%

47.3%

50.6%

3.3%

Minnesota

44.9%

45.3%

0.4%

46.4%

52.4%

6.0%

Mississippi

57.9%

41.1%

-0.3%

57.6%

40.1%

-1.0%

Missouri

56.8%

56.8%

0.0%

38.1%

41.4%

3.3%

Montana

56.2%

56.9%

0.7%

35.7%

40.6%

4.9%

Nebraska

58.7%

58.2%

-0.5%

33.7%

39.2%

5.5%

Nevada

45.5%

47.8%

2.3%

47.9%

50.1%

2.2%

New Hampshire

46.5%

45.4%

-1.1%

46.8%

52.7%

5.9%

New Jersey

41.4%

41.4%

0.0%

55.5%

57.3%

1.8%

New Mexico

40.0%

43.5%

3.5%

48.3%

54.3%

6.0%

New York

36.1%

37.5%

1.4%

58.4%

60.4%

2.0%

North Carolina

49.8%

49.9%

0.1%

46.2%

48.6%

2.4%

North Dakota

65.1%

31.8%

2.1%

63.0%

27.2%

4.6%

Ohio

51.7%

53.3%

1.6%

43.6%

45.2%

1.6%

Oklahoma

65.3%

65.4%

0.1%

28.9%

32.3%

3.4%

Oregon

40.4%

56.5%

0.7%

39.1%

50.1%

6.4%

Pennsylvania

48.6%

48.8%

0.2%

47.8%

50.0%

2.2%

Rhode Island

38.9%

38.6%

-0.3%

54.4%

59.4%

5.0%

South Carolina

54.9%

55.1%

0.2%

40.7%

43.4%

2.7%

South Dakota

61.5%

61.8%

0.3%

31.7%

35.6%

3.9%

Tennessee

60.7%

60.7%

0.0%

34.7%

37.5%

2.8%

Texas

53.2%

52.1%

-1.1%

43.2%

46.5%

3.3%

Utah

45.5%

58.1%

12.6%

27.5%

37.7%

10.2%

Vermont

29.8%

30.9%

1.1%

55.7%

65.5%

9.8%

Virginia

44.4%

44.0%

-0.4%

49.7%

54.1%

4.4%

Washington

36.8%

38.8%

2.0%

52.5%

58.0%

5.5%

West Virginia

68.6%

68.7%

0.1%

26.5%

29.7%

3.2%

Wisconsin

47.2%

48.8%

1.6%

46.5%

49.4%

2.9%

Wyoming

67.4%

69.5%

2.1%

21.6%

26.4%

4.8%

 

STATE

2016 R

2020 R

AVE GAIN

Utah

45.5%

58.1%

12.6%

Massachusetts

32.3%

39.1%

6.8%

Hawaii

29.4%

33.9%

4.5%

Idaho

59.3%

63.8%

4.5%

New Mexico

40.0%

43.5%

3.5%

California

31.6%

34.3%

2.7%

Nevada

45.5%

47.8%

2.3%

Florida

49.0%

51.2%

2.2%

North Dakota

65.1%

31.8%

2.1%

Wyoming

67.4%

69.5%

2.1%

Washington

36.8%

38.8%

2.0%

Arkansas

60.6%

62.4%

1.8%

Illinois

38.8%

40.6%

1.8%

Iowa

51.2%

52.8%

1.6%

Ohio

51.7%

53.3%

1.6%

Wisconsin

47.2%

48.8%

1.6%

Alaska

51.3%

52.8%

1.5%

New York

36.1%

37.5%

1.4%

Vermont

29.8%

30.9%

1.1%

Oregon

40.4%

56.5%

0.7%

Montana

56.2%

56.9%

0.7%

Arizona

48.7%

49.1%

0.4%

Louisiana

58.1%

58.5%

0.4%

Minnesota

44.9%

45.3%

0.4%

South Dakota

61.5%

61.8%

0.3%

Alabama

62.1%

62.3%

0.2%

Michigan

47.6%

47.8%

0.2%

Pennsylvania

48.6%

48.8%

0.2%

South Carolina

54.9%

55.1%

0.2%

Indiana

56.9%

57.0%

0.1%

Maine

43.5%

43.6%

0.1%

North Carolina

49.8%

49.9%

0.1%

Oklahoma

65.3%

65.4%

0.1%

West Virginia

68.6%

68.7%

0.1%

Missouri

56.8%

56.8%

0.0%

New Jersey

41.4%

41.4%

0.0%

Tennessee

60.7%

60.7%

0.0%

Mississippi

57.9%

41.1%

-0.3%

Rhode Island

38.9%

38.6%

-0.3%

Kansas

56.6%

56.2%

-0.4%

Kentucky

62.5%

62.1%

-0.4%

Virginia

44.4%

44.0%

-0.4%

Nebraska

58.7%

58.2%

-0.5%

New Hampshire

46.5%

45.4%

-1.1%

Texas

53.2%

52.1%

-1.1%

Colorado

43.2%

41.9%

-1.3%

Georgia

50.8%

49.2%

-1.6%

Connecticut

40.9%

39.2%

-1.7%

Maryland

33.9%

32.2%

-1.7%

Delaware

41.7%

39.8%

-1.9%

 

STATE

2016 D

2020 D

AVE GAIN

Utah

27.5%

37.7%

10.2%

Vermont

55.7%

65.5%

9.8%

Colorado

48.2%

55.4%

7.2%

Oregon

39.1%

50.1%

6.4%

Alaska

36.5%

42.8%

6.3%

Massachusetts

59.0%

65.1%

6.1%

Maine

46.4%

52.5%

6.1%

New Mexico

48.3%

54.3%

6.0%

Minnesota

46.4%

52.4%

6.0%

New Hampshire

46.8%

52.7%

5.9%

Idaho

27.5%

33.1%

5.6%

Kansas

36.0%

41.6%

5.6%

Delaware

53.1%

58.7%

5.6%

Nebraska

33.7%

39.2%

5.5%

Washington

52.5%

58.0%

5.5%

Maryland

60.3%

65.4%

5.1%

Rhode Island

54.4%

59.4%

5.0%

Montana

35.7%

40.6%

4.9%

Wyoming

21.6%

26.4%

4.8%

North Dakota

63.0%

27.2%

4.6%

Connecticut

54.6%

59.2%

4.6%

Virginia

49.7%

54.1%

4.4%

Arizona

45.1%

49.4%

4.3%

Georgia

45.6%

49.5%

3.9%

South Dakota

31.7%

35.6%

3.9%

Oklahoma

28.9%

32.3%

3.4%

Kentucky

32.7%

36.1%

3.4%

Michigan

47.3%

50.6%

3.3%

Texas

43.2%

46.5%

3.3%

Missouri

38.1%

41.4%

3.3%

Indiana

37.8%

41.0%

3.2%

West Virginia

26.5%

29.7%

3.2%

Iowa

41.7%

44.7%

3.0%

Wisconsin

46.5%

49.4%

2.9%

Tennessee

34.7%

37.5%

2.8%

South Carolina

40.7%

43.4%

2.7%

North Carolina

46.2%

48.6%

2.4%

Alabama

34.4%

36.6%

2.2%

Nevada

47.9%

50.1%

2.2%

Pennsylvania

47.8%

50.0%

2.2%

Hawaii

61.0%

63.1%

2.1%

New York

58.4%

60.4%

2.0%

California

61.7%

63.5%

1.8%

New Jersey

55.5%

57.3%

1.8%

Illinois

55.8%

57.5%

1.7%

Ohio

43.6%

45.2%

1.6%

Louisiana

38.4%

39.8%

1.4%

Arkansas

33.6%

34.8%

1.2%

Florida

47.8%

47.9%

0.1%

Mississippi

57.6%

40.1%

-1.0%


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