GA-Sen: Q-Poll, An Outlier

It appears the late June Quinnipiac University poll (6/23-27; 1,497 GA registered voters; live interview) giving Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) a ten point, 54-44%, lead over Republican former NFL and college football player Herschel Walker is an outlier. Previous and subsequent polls have put forth differing conclusions.

The most recent GA-Senate survey, from the progressive left research firm Data for Progress, went into the Georgia field (7/1-6; 1,131 GA likely general election voters; text & online) and actually posts Mr. Walker to a 49-47% slight advantage. This wholly contrasts with Quinnipiac University’s data even to the point of disagreeing as to which contender is the race leader.

But, Data for Progress is not alone. Another Democratic firm, Change Research, also tested the Peach State electorate, and within the same time frame as when Quinnipiac conducted their poll. The Change Research survey (6/24-27; 704 GA likely general election voters; part of a series of polls conducted within the same time frame in several competitive 2022 states; online), while agreeing with Quinnipiac as to who is leading the race, Sen. Warnock, finds the spread between he and Mr. Walker just slightly beyond the polling margin of error at 48-44%.

Approximately ten days prior to the Quinnipiac release, two other research entities were in the field, and these pollsters arrived at exactly the same conclusion: that is, the two candidates are tied.

Republican pollster Moore Information (6/11-16; 800 GA likely general election voters; interactive voice response system) projected that Sen. Warnock and Mr. Walker were deadlocked at 47% apiece.

A week before, East Carolina University (6/6-9; 868 GA registered voters; live interview & text) also detected a tie on their Senate ballot test, an almost identical 46-46%.

To underscore that the Q-Poll is the one out of step, three of the four pollsters (Change Research did not) also tested the state’s hard fought Governor’s race between incumbent Brian Kemp (R) and former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D). The same pattern emerged: the Q-Poll projects the Democratic candidates with higher percentages.

Quinnipiac found the Governor and Ms. Abrams tied at 48%. Yet, every other recent poll, and all eleven publicly released surveys conducted since December, posts Gov. Kemp to a lead of between two and nine points.

East Carolina and Moore Information, like in the Senate race, arrived at virtually identical conclusions for the Governor’s contest. ECU posted Gov. Kemp to a 51-45% advantage; Moore Information: 51-44%.

Even more surprisingly, it is Data for Progress that gives Gov. Kemp his strongest lead. Their July 1-6 survey produced a ballot test of 53-44%.

Of the four grouped polls, most either did not ask many questions other than presidential approval, or didn’t release the results to their full survey. Data for Progress only tested the Senate candidates in terms of their “horse race” standing.

The other three pollsters at least asked and released a presidential approval rating, while the Q-Poll asked the most in-depth questions of the four. Yet again, the Q-Poll stands isolated, but this time Quinnipiac is extreme in the opposite direction.

The Q-Poll projects the President with his worst job approval rating, 33:60% positive to negative. This is particularly surprising since Quinnipiac, as outlined above, found the strongest ballot tests in favor of the Democratic candidates.

The other two firms querying Biden approval again found virtually identical responses. Moore Information sees a 38:58% upside down presidential job approval ratio, and ECU found a similar 38:54%.

Based upon the preponderance of recent data, it appears apparent that the Warnock-Walker race is tight. The Quinnipiac finding suggesting that a significant Warnock lead exists should be disregarded, at least in the short term.

Naturally, both the Georgia Senate and Governor’s races should be closely monitored throughout the remainder of the cycle. They will be two of the nation’s top races of interest come November 8th.

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