Georgia Polling Dichotomy

An October polling plethora has been released in Georgia, which is becoming one of the most important 2020 election cycle states both in terms of the presidential and US Senate outcomes. As the only state featuring two US Senate races, Georgia has attracted more than its share of polling universe attention.

Quinnipiac University released new data Wednesday that either is detecting a new trend or is an outlier. Their results give Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, and US Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock big leads in their respective races, something no other survey research firm is reporting.

The Quinnipiac poll (10/8-12; 1,040 GA likely voters; live interview) finds Mr. Biden posting a 51-44% lead over President Donald Trump, Mr. Ossoff claiming a similar 51-45% advantage over Sen. David Perdue* (R), and Rev. Warnock outpacing both Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) and Sen. Kelly Loeffler* (R) by 19 and 21 percentage points (41-22-20%).

Six other pollsters, also surveying in October, largely see things much differently.

Polling within the same period as Quinnipiac are Survey USA, Data for Progress, and Morning Consult.

Survey USA chose exactly the same sampling period as Quinnipiac, October 8-12. With a sample size of 877 likely Georgia voters also in live interviews, they see a dissimilar political landscape. While they find Mr. Biden leading in the presidential race, his margin is only two points, 48-46%.

The two pollsters’ Senate numbers are starkly different. S-USA finds Sen. Perdue leading Mr. Ossoff, 46-43%, a net nine-point variance when directly compared with Quinnipiac. The jungle primary special election race is even more disparate. While Quinnipiac projects one of the biggest leads for Warnock during the entire election cycle, S-USA finds only a four-point difference between he and Sen. Loeffler, 30-26%, a far cry from the Q-Poll’s 41-20%.

The two pollsters even see a different ballot test order. While the Q-Poll finds a Warnock-Collins-Loeffler split, Survey USA projects a virtual three-way battle among Warnock, Loeffler, and Collins. The latter poll posts Rep. Collins’ statewide support at 20%.

Data for Progress is a progressive left pollster, and they surveyed the Georgia electorate during a commensurate period, October 8-11. Their sample was comprised of 782 Georgia likely voters contacted through an online and text approach. Their presidential result produces a dead even contest between President Trump and Mr. Biden, with each man claiming 46% support. They then see a 46-44% advantage for Sen. Perdue and find the jungle primary results very close to that of Survey USA, a 30-22-22% split among Rev. Warnock, Sen. Loeffler, and Rep. Collins, respectively.

Morning Consult conducted a series of state polls, of which Georgia was one, during the October 2-11 period. They administer online polls through large pre-selected sampling universes. In Georgia, 1,837 likely voters were sampled during the early October period. The MC result is different than Quinnipiac’s and within the Survey USA and Data for Progress realm, though they find a different leader in the presidential race. Morning Consult sees President Trump holding a 49-47% edge.

Their Senate numbers are also closer to the latter two pollsters. MC finds Sen. Perdue holding a four-point lead over Mr. Ossoff, 46-42%. They did not test the jungle primary.

Public Policy Polling was also in the field during this relative time period, surveying 528 voters during the October 8-9 period through an automated response device process. They, too, come much closer to the group result than Quinnipiac’s. PPP finds Mr. Biden holding a one-point, 47-46%, edge.

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