Rumors abound in California that key Kamala Harris supporters will attempt to convince her to run for Governor in 2026 when the seat next comes open. Incumbent Gavin Newsom (D), a Harris political ally, is ineligible to seek a third term.
The idea is reminiscent of Richard Nixon’s move in 1962 after he lost the 1960 presidential election to John F. Kennedy. Like Ms. Harris, Mr. Nixon had been elected as a US Senator from California and then Vice President under Dwight Eisenhower in 1956. Ten years earlier, Nixon was elected to the House of Representatives from a southern California congressional seat.
Mr. Nixon’s gubernatorial bid failed. He would lose to then-Gov. Pat Brown, father of future Governor and presidential candidate Jerry Brown, by a 52-47% majority. Though Mr. Nixon carried California against Kennedy, he did so with a bare 50.1 – 49.5% margin meaning a spread of 35,623 votes from a total voting universe of 6.48 million ballots. Therefore, the idea of Nixon running for Governor after losing the presidential race was iffy at best.
In those days, however, California was a competitive political state, and a Republican candidate could win a statewide election. Ronald Reagan would prove such four years later as he unseated Gov. Brown with a landslide 58-42% election that translated into an almost one million vote spread win for the actor turned politician who was of course a future President. In that election, Mr. Reagan won 55 of the state’s 58 counties.
The situation for Ms. Harris would be different. In the 2024 election, she carried California over President-Elect Donald Trump with a 58.7 – 38.2% vote split, far superior to Nixon’s tight victory margin. In her lone Senate race, 2016, she captured almost 62% of the vote against then-US Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Orange County) in a double-Democratic general election. In her two successful races for California Attorney General, Ms. Harris recorded victory percentages of 57.5 and 46.0%. The latter contest, in 2010, proved only a ½ point win for Ms. Harris, but that was her first statewide run and California was more politically competitive during that period than today.
Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) are already announced gubernatorial candidates. Former State Controller Betty Yee (D) and ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) are also formally announced candidates. In the state’s top two primary system, it is possible that two Democrats could again advance into the general election.
Therefore, Ms. Harris placing first in a multi-candidate jungle primary election would likely be the projected outcome, thus putting her in a strong position for the general election.
Like Sen-Elect Adam Schiff (D) surmised in his statewide race, it would be to her benefit to draw a Republican opponent in the general election rather than another accomplished Democrat. Though Republicans are far from being competitive enough to win a California statewide general election, their cumulative percentages in 2024 were an improvement over recent election cycles. Therefore, there is a greater possibility that the California GOP has enough strength to qualify a well-known general election finalist in 2026 as former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) was able to do in the ’24 open US Senate campaign.
While it remains unclear as to whether Kamala Harris will attempt a political comeback after her decisive national loss, returning to California to compete in an open 2026 Governor’s race would be a logical place to make such a move should she so decide.
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