A race that has confounded most political observers from outside Nebraska is how the state’s featured Senate race with two-term incumbent Deb Fischer (R) is unfolding. 

Thought to have an easy run at the beginning of the cycle because she did not draw a Democratic opponent, Sen. Fischer finds herself in a tough race against Independent Dan Osborn who has developed into a major challenger.

Once Mr. Osborn became formidable and polling began to surface that he had a chance to actually win the race, the state’s Democratic establishment began to rally around him similar to how the Utah Democrats backed Independent Evan McMullin in his 2022 competitive race against Sen. Mike Lee (R).

Apparently one of the reasons Mr. Osborn is doing well is because of her opponent’s last name, a famous one in Nebraska.

Retired University of Nebraska championship head football coach and former US Congressman Tom Osborne just cut a new ad for Sen. Fischer in which he explains that confusion exists because he and the Senate candidate share the same surname. The Hall of Fame college coach who served three terms in the House in the early part of this century goes onto explain that he has never met Dan Osborn but does know Sen. Fischer. Coach Osborne, who is a revered legend in the state, then explains how important it is to re-elect Sen. Fischer.

The race has turned nasty as well, with candidate Osborn launching a personal attack against Sen. Fischer claiming that she used her position for personal profit, claiming that her net worth had increased 1,300 percent since the time of her original election to the Senate.

We have also seen conflicting polls within the last week with both candidates releasing mirror image internal surveys placing themselves six points ahead. Yesterday, Sen. Fischer’s campaign released another new poll to counter Osborn’s last release. The data is again from her campaign pollster, Torchlight Strategies (10/12-15; 625 NE likely voters), this time placing the incumbent seven points ahead at 51-44%.

Since the beginning of August, polling was beginning to show a developing campaign. Most believed the early polls were simply outliers and hard to explain since Sen. Fischer had good favorability ratings, a largely non-controversial career, and was literally facing no Democratic opponent.

Yet, since August 12th, polls began to show her holding small leads of just 2, 1, and 1 percentage points. Then, the Survey USA poll conducted during the September 20-23 period was published that, for the first time, showed Osborn leading, 45-44%.

This poll was strange because while it depicted Sen. Fischer’s contest evolving into a competitive race, the same sampling universe found appointed Republican Senator Pete Ricketts, the state’s former Governor who was selected to replace Sen. Ben Sasse (R) after the latter man resigned his seat in 2023, leading by 18 points in his race to win the right to complete the current term, and former President Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 16 points. At that point, the Fischer race became very serious.

Since then, the trend became worse for Sen. Fischer with three polls from three different pollsters finding Mr. Osborn leading by 5, 2, and 3 percentage points.

Ms. Fischer then released her Torchlight poll during the first week of October that yielded her a lead of six points, 48-42%. Mr. Osborn countered with his internal Survey USA poll giving him a six point advantage, 50-44%, prompting Fischer to counter with the Torchlight result mentioned above that places her seven points ahead.

This race has been the surprise of the 2024 Senate election cycle, and the name confusion with coach and former Congressman Osborne at least gave the Independent an early boost. Now seeing him raise just under $5 million for his race according to the September 30th Federal Election Commission campaign finance disclosure report means the Osborn challenge has gone from outlier to top tier.

Aside from explaining that Dan Osborn is not, nor any relation to, Coach Osborne, the Fischer campaign is also running ads attacking him as a “liberal Democrat,” and that voters “should not be fooled.”

There is still time for Sen. Fischer to right her political ship in this surprising campaign, and it now appears she is on the right track toward doing so.