New York Cong Map Set

Steuben County Supreme Court Judge Patrick McAllister approved the special master’s congressional map late last Friday with some changes particularly in the Brooklyn area.

The special master's footprint helps Republicans to an extent in cutting their current delegation size from eight to five seats where the party candidate will be clearly favored, but that is one better than the Democratic map cast.

The new plan does create at least five additional Democratic districts that will be competitive, however, and pairs Democrats Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan) and Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan) into a new 12th District. Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County) will move from his current Westchester County anchored 17th CD into a new west side Manhattan district where he will face former NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio and many others in a hotly contested primary.

New York’s congressional and state Senate primaries are delayed until August 23rd because of the re-draws. The statewide contests and all other races will be decided in the previously scheduled June 28th nomination election.

Beginning numerically, the map restores Long Island’s 1st District more closely to its traditional form. It covers the eastern part of Suffolk County and is much more likely to return to the Republican column as an open seat. Current NY-1 incumbent Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) is running for Governor. According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, this district will be cast as a R+10 open seat.

Rep. Andrew Garbarino’s* (R-Sayville) 2nd District generally returns to its original compact south shore anchored configuration but will now reach to the north shore on central Long Island. It is rated D+1 on the 538 scale, which is considerably more competitive than his current R+8 south shore CD. He will likely face his 2020 opponent, former local Babylon town official Jackie Gordon (D) in the general election.

The open 3rd and 4th CDs return to their previous configurations with the 3rd being much more competitive, D+1 versus the current D+6. Six Democrats are running to replace Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) who is running for Governor, while Republicans are coalescing around their surprisingly strong 2020 nominee, business development executive George Santos.

Retiring Rep. Kathleen Rice’s (D-Garden City) 4th District becomes slightly more Democratic, D+10 compared to the current D+9. At least six Democrats will be contesting the party nomination, with the winner becoming a heavy favorite in November. All four Long Island districts are larger since the region needed to gain approximately 150,000 people combined to meet the state population per district quota.

In New York City, Districts 5 through 10 and 12 through 16 return as safe Democratic seats. Two, Districts 10 and 12 will feature hot Democratic primaries, however, while freshman GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis* (R-Staten Island) sees her 11th District return to a more favorable form after the Democratic plan drew her seat from R+13 to D+7. The new 11th rates as R+5 and it is likely she will again face Democrat Max Rose, the one-term Congressman who she defeated in 2020. The seat will be competitive, but Rep. Malliotakis is in much better political shape under the court ordered map.

District 12 features a key Democratic pairing between two veteran Manhattan Democratic incumbents, Carolyn Maloney and Jerrold Nadler. The new 12th is 61% from Rep. Maloney’s district and 39% from Mr. Nadler’s. Both have said they will oppose the other in the new 12th and this will be a key race to watch on August 23rd.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring) created internal controversy, including a call from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx) to resign his leadership position, when he decided to challenge freshman Rep. Jones in the new 17th rather than running in the 18th District to its north. Rep. Maloney countered that the new draw placed his home in District 17.

In response, and avoiding a pairing with Rep. Maloney, Mr. Jones has decided to run on the opposite end of the NY metro area in new District 10, which is a south west side Manhattan district. While uber-Democratic (D+62), here he will face former NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio, state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou, NYC Councilwoman Carlina Rivera, and possibly state Sen. Simcha Felder in the Democratic primary. State Sen. Brad Hoylman originally announced for the new congressional seat but has since backed away from running in this crowded district. The Jones move is curious in that he currently represents no one in this new 10th CD.

The aforementioned 18th District will be open and competitive as well as the Upstate 19th CD. In the latter, Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinbeck) is in the process of departing since he has been appointed the state’s new Lt. Governor.

Districts 20, 21, 25, and 26 look to be safe for incumbents Peter Tonko (D-Amsterdam/Albany), Elise Stefanik* (R-Schuylerville), Joe Morelle (D-Irondequoit/Rochester), and Brian Higgins* (D-Buffalo).

The Syracuse anchored 22nd District, which corresponds to the current 24th CD from which Rep. John Katko* (R-Syracuse) is retiring, now returns to a more competitive status (D+2) open seat than under the Democrats’ map. The candidate field is now re-forming for this seat.

Rep. Chris Jacobs (R-Orchard Park) announced for the new 23rd CD that is cast as R+21, while Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-New Hartford) will run in the new 24th that rates R+22.

There are upcoming special election situations relating to Districts 18, 19, and 23 that will be covered in subsequent Updates when the individual political playing fields become better defined.

Overall, this is a much more competitive map than the original legislature’s draw and should be even more so in 2022 if the developing Republican electoral trends continue to gel.

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