One of the more important states that will determine the House November outcome is the Lone Star State of Texas. Now with 14 of their 15 congressional runoff elections decided, we have almost a full card of nominations set in the state’s 36 districts.

On this special day in American history, the AGC PAC Board of Trustees and AGC staff wish you a happy Fourth of July.

Presidential Race

Georgia

Public Policy Polling’s new Georgia poll (6/25-26; 734 GA self-identified “voters”), gives former Vice President Joe Biden a 49-45% edge in this most critical of battleground states. The Democratic nominee, however, being up at this point in the election cycle is not particularly unusual. Looking back at the 2016 race, the Real Clear Politics polling archives reveals that while President Donald Trump led in almost every Georgia poll four years ago, two in early August, from the Atlanta Journal Constitution and JMC Analytics, found Hillary Clinton topping her opponent by four and seven points, respectively.

The Pew Research Center recently released the results of their national poll about how the public is viewing the COVID-19 response, which enables us to put the data in a political context. The polling results contain some good news for both presidential candidates and the respective major party leaders who are attempting to craft national campaign agendas in unique times.

As many pollsters have done, Siena College and their New York Times polling partner just released survey data for the Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina Senate races. This is largely because those three states have attracted much attention in the Democrats’ battle to topple the Republican majority.

But a group of four other states may be a better indicator of whether the Senate will flip in November, and all are competitive.

While the pre-election coverage for Tuesday’s Colorado primary focused on how former Governor and presidential candidate John Hickenlooper would fare in the Democratic Senate primary – he would win 60-40%, which was certainly well below what original projections forecast – the real story came in the state’s Western Slope congressional district.

There, five-term veteran Rep. Scott Tipton (R-Cortez) was soundly denied re-nomination by 2nd Amendment activist and local restaurant owner Loren Boebert in the Republican congressional primary. When the final votes are counted, Ms. Boebert will break 54% of the vote of what looks to be about 120,000 cast votes, more than double the amount of the last GOP primary held here in 2016.

Arizona Poll: In the middle of May, OH Predictive Insights (5/9-11; 600 AZ likely general election voters) released their Arizona statewide survey that received considerable attention in the political pundit community due to the Grand Canyon State’s importance in the presidential campaign. With its 11 electoral votes, Arizona is a must-win state for the Trump campaign. The OH poll found former Vice President Joe Biden leading 50-43%, his largest margin to date, but little in the way of analysis accompanied the poll release.

Democratic Nomination: Former Vice President Joe Biden clinched the Democratic nomination last Tuesday in Georgia with an 84% victory and a 65% West Virginia win sweeping the states’ combined 133 bound first ballot votes. By all counts now, Mr. Biden has exceeded the minimum 1,991 delegate votes to officially clinch the party nomination.

Voters in Georgia, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina, West Virginia and Virginia chose nominees last week.

Documentary film maker and former congressional candidate Jon Ossoff has secured the Democratic US Senate nomination with just over 52% of the statewide vote.