AGC ACTION ALERT: OPPOSE THE PRO ACT

Political Snippets 2.05.2021

Listed below are political snippets on congressional, gubernatorial and city-wide races across the country. Enjoy!

President

Nomination Rules

Former Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid may not be in Congress anymore, but he is still very politically active. Now, he is leading an internal lobbying effort to move his state of Nevada into the first primary position for the 2024 presidential election. The move would usurp Iowa and New Hampshire as the first caucus and primary states. New Hampshire, however, is still in the driver’s seat. By law, the Secretary of State has the power to move the primary date at will in front of any state attempting to jump ahead of them on the voting schedule, so this could be the beginning of a long and interesting political fight.

U.S. Senate

Arizona

Now that term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey (R) has removed himself as a potential US Senate challenger to special election winner Mark Kelly (D), the political jockeying among Republicans is beginning. Attorney General Mark Brnovich, state Treasurer Kimberly Yee, US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), and former Congressman Matt Salmon are potential Senate or gubernatorial candidates. In order for the Republicans to make a strong run at the majority in 2022, they must put the Arizona Senate seat in play.

Colorado

US Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor) announced earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Michael Bennet (D) next year and will instead seek re-election to a fifth term in the House. Mr. Buck resigned his position as chairman of the Colorado Republican Party earlier in the year thus fueling speculation that he was preparing to run statewide. At this point, Sen. Bennet’s only announced opposition is from former Democratic state Rep. Joe Salazar who plans to attack the incumbent from his ideological left.

Florida

Former US Rep. Alan Grayson (D) who represented two different central Florida congressional seats over a period of eight years and unsuccessfully ran for the US Senate, may again be returning to the political scene. Reports suggest he is laying the groundwork for a run against Sen. Marco Rubio (R).

Georgia

Fox News is reporting that former Rep. Doug Collins (R), who placed third in the statewide special 2020 election that Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) won, looks to be preparing another run for the statewide federal office. Since the 2020 vote was a special election to fill the balance of resigned Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R) last term, Sen. Warnock now has to stand for a full six-year term in 2022.

Indiana

Soon after his Democratic presidential campaign ended, many believed former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) would be preparing a 2022 campaign to challenge Sen. Todd Young (R). Mr. Buttigieg becoming US Transportation Secretary effectively ended such a budding challenge, however, so speculation then began circulating around Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett (D) as a potential Senate candidate. That now has also been quelled. Last weekend it was reported that Mayor Hogsett said he will not enter the race to challenge Sen. Young next year.

Now the speculation is turning toward former Sen. Joe Donnelly, who was defeated for re-election in 2018. At this point, Mr. Donnelly is not shutting the door on another Senate challenge.

North Carolina

Former North Carolina Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D), who lost her seat on the bench this past November by just 413 votes statewide, is expected to soon enter the open US Senate race. Former Gov. Pat McCrory (R), who was defeated for re-election in 2016, is also reportedly making moves to form a US Senate campaign committee. Already in the race are former US Rep. Mark Walker (R) and ex-state Senator and 2020 Senate candidate Erica Smith (D) along with sitting state Sen. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). Sen. Richard Burr (R) has announced he will not seek a fourth term in 2022.

Ohio

US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) is reportedly set to announce a 2022 run for retiring Sen. Rob Portman’s open seat in March. Mr. Ryan participated in the Democratic presidential campaign but dropped his bid even before the Iowa Caucus vote. He was first elected to the House in 2002 and has averaged 66.3% of the vote in his ten congressional elections, though his win percentage has lessened in recent election cycles as eastern Ohio turned more Republican during his two decades in the House.

One more Republican who will not be in the Senate race is Attorney General David Yost. He announced mid-week that he will seek re-election to his current position next year. Previously declining a Senate bid were Lt. Gov. Jon Husted and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Urbana). Reportedly considering the Senate race are Reps. Steve Stivers (R-Columbus), Bill Johnson (R-Marietta), David Joyce (R-Russell Township), ex-Rep. and 2018 US Senate nominee Jim Renacci, and several wealthy business owners.

Wisconsin

While prominent people in other states are already saying they won’t run for the Senate in two years, one person confirming he is at least considering such a campaign is Badger State Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D). Sen. Ron Johnson (R) has not yet indicated whether he will seek a third term. When first elected in 2010, he said he would only serve two terms, but now publicly does not equivocally rule out running again.

United States House of Representatives

CA-22

Democrat Phil Arballo, who spent over $5.1 million against Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Tulare) in losing 54-46%, says he will run again in 2022. Mr. Arballo believes the California Citizens Redistricting Commission will make the 22nd District more competitive, thus enhancing his chances of unseating the ten-term incumbent. Rep. Nunes was the strongest fundraiser of any House Republican in both 2020 and 2018. In the most recent campaign, he banked over $26.3 million for his re-election run and ended the race with more than $4 million in his campaign account.

CA-28

According to the Axios news site, California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) is lobbying Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) to appoint him to the soon-to-be-vacant Attorney General’s position in his home state. Incumbent Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D) was appointed as President Biden’s Secretary of Health and Human Services. Upon Mr. Becerra’s confirmation, the California AG’s position will be vacant, and Gov. Newsom is empowered to appoint a replacement.

California is projected to lose a seat in reapportionment, and the Congressman’s 28th District, which sits in the middle of the San Fernando Valley, is the most under-populated of all the state’s current 53 US House districts. Therefore, the chance that the California Citizens Redistricting Commission eventually collapses this seat and forces him into a race against another Democratic incumbent is a plausible possibility.

CA-39

Freshman California Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra), who lost to Democrat Gil Cisneros in 2018 and then returned to unseat him last November, has already drawn a new challenger for 2022. Community College trustee, businessman, and Navy Reserve officer Jay Chen (D) announced that he will challenge Rep. Kim next year. Former Congressman Cisneros confirms he is considering launching another campaign but has yet to make any firm decision.

CO-3

With controversy surrounding Colorado freshman Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) about her carrying a weapon on the House floor and being a conservative firebrand, it is clear that she will be a top Democratic 2022 target. Yesterday, a major Colorado pol, state Senate President Pro Tempore Kerry Donovan (D-Gunnison), announced that she will challenge Ms. Boebert next year.

We can expect a crowded Democratic primary and redistricting to change this seat only on its eastern border since the seat is surrounded in the other three directions by Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico. Colorado is expected to gain a seat in reapportionment, so the final 2022 congressional map will be much different than the one presently in effect.

MI-6

One by one, the Republican House members who voted to impeach President Trump are already attracting GOP primary opponents. The latest to be challenged is veteran Michigan Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph). Two 2022 GOP opponents came forward this week as Berrien County Commissioner Ezra Scott and local pastor Jerry Solis both announced they will attempt next year to deny Mr. Upton re-nomination for a 19th term.  In 2020, Mr. Upton defeated challenger Elena Oelke in the GOP primary, 62-38%. Ms. Oelke, however, literally spent no money on her campaign. This suggests more serious challengers could make a different primary battle quite interesting.

NJ-5

Sussex-Wantage School Board President Nicholas D’Agostino (R) announced late this week that he will challenge northern New Jersey Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) next year. Mr. D’Agostino is disabled and says that paraplegic Rep. Madison Cawthorn’s (R-NC) successful congressional run inspired him.  Rep. Gottheimer is one of the top Democratic fundraisers, so any challenger will be tasked with raising millions of dollars to adequately compete. In the 2020 campaign, the Congressman spent over $8 million on his re-election effort.

NJ-7

Pharmaceutical executive Rik Mehta, who was the Republican nominee in November against Sen. Cory Booker (D) and scored 41% of the statewide vote, announced this week that he will challenge two-term Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Rocky Hill) next year. The move could set up a Republican primary. State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield), who just a week ago announced that he would not seek re-election this year in a move that many believe better prepares him to make another run against Rep. Malinowski – the 2020 campaign ended in a close 50.6 – 49.3% Democratic victory – is also a serious potential congressional candidate.

NY-22

This week, presiding judge Scott DelConte issued a 23-page ruling pertaining to more than 1,100 contested ballots in the NY-22 campaign that is now virtually decided but still a long way from being over. With the contested rulings now public, former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) has increased her lead over 116th Congress incumbent Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica) to 122 votes. Justice DelConte ordered the counties to appear in court to finish their canvass procedure but then changed his mind. He once again suspended the race results because Mr. Brindisi is already appealing some of Justice DelConte’s rulings and he could win in the higher courts. Therefore, we can expect this contest to continue lingering in political limbo.

OH-16

Non-profit organization director Jonah Schulz (R), who failed to win the Republican nomination in the heavily Democratic 11th District last May, says he will launch a primary challenge against nearby Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Rocky River; North Olmsted) next year. Rep. Gonzalez was one of ten House Republicans to support President Donald Trump’s latest impeachment.

SC-7

The prediction that South Carolina Rep. Tom Rice (R-Myrtle Beach) would draw a serious 2022 primary challenge after voting to impeach former President Trump is already coming true. In addition to state Rep. William Bailey (R-Horry County) announcing his intention to run, Horry County School Board chairman Ken Richardson (R) said this week that he will also make the race, while state Rep. Russell Fry (R-Surfside Beach) confirms that he, too, is seriously considering running. South Carolina is a runoff state, so a crowded field suggests that a secondary Republican nomination election would be forthcoming if no candidate receives majority support in the original June 2022 primary.

TX-32

Businesswoman Genevieve Collins (R), who spent over $6 million on a campaign against Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) but lost 52-46%, says she will return for a re-match in 2022. The district, however, may not be the same, which could help or hinder her new political effort. The Dallas area, with its large population growth, is expected to gain one of the three new projected seats Texas is likely to earn in reapportionment. This will undoubtedly substantially change the 32nd District. Therefore, since the electoral situation could change Ms. Collins’ outlook about where, or whether, she runs means Dallas County politics will remain in flux.

WA-4

As with several of his Republican colleagues who voted to impeach President Donald Trump earlier this month, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside/ Yakima) has already drawn a 2022 Republican challenger. State Rep. Brad Klippert (R-Kennewick) announced his intention late this week to run for Congress. Since Washington uses a jungle primary system, there is no partisan nomination election. Therefore, it is possible for members of the same party to advance into the general election, placing Mr. Klippert in a different position than some of the other challengers directly opposing incumbents within their party.

WY-AL

Amid the swirling controversy surrounding Rep. Liz Cheney’s (R-Wilson/Jackson) vote to impeach President Trump, including an array of potential Republican primary opponents already lining up to challenge her in the August 2022 primary election, the McLaughlin & Associates organization released the results of their January 25-27 Wyoming poll of 500 likely general election voters.

According to the survey, only 13% of those surveyed would vote to re-elect her. Among only Republicans, the more serious number, Ms. Cheney’s re-elect score drops to just 10%. Paired with state Sen. Anthony Bouchard (R-Laramie), she would lose a Republican primary, 54-21%. Adding Rep. Chuck Gray (R-Casper) to make a three-way contest, Sen. Bouchard would lead 28-21-17% over Rep. Cheney and Mr. Gray, respectively.

Governor

Arkansas

Former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders whose father, Mike Huckabee, served as Arkansas’ Governor for over ten years, announced her own candidacy for her home state’s top position this week. Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, so this will be an open seat campaign. The Republican primary will be the key battle, and it is already shaping up as a highly competitive race. Minimally, Ms. Sanders will face Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin and state Attorney General Leslie Rutledge, both of whom have confirmed that they will be gubernatorial candidates.

California

Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R), who just left his position in January due to term limits, announced a challenge to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) this week. With the recall petition against Mr. Newsom gaining more support and appearing on the cusp of qualifying for a removal election, potential candidates are beginning to make preparatory moves for such an eventuality. To force a recall election the Secretary of State must record 1,495,708 valid signatures (12% of the total vote in the last gubernatorial election). The organizers have until March 17th to finish petition gathering, and their current validity rate is running at approximately 85% according to news sources.

One potentially strong candidate, tech billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya (R), who at one time suggested he would run is now backing off conducting any such campaign saying, “…I’m not ready to do any of that.”

Florida

US Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg), who served one term as Governor when a member of the Republican Party before losing a US Senate race as an Independent, and then another bid for Governor after switching to the Democrats, again confirmed that he is weighing his chances in yet another gubernatorial campaign. Now, he is looking at challenging Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) who is expected to seek a second term in 2022.

Nebraska

The Omaha World-Herald newspaper ran a recent article detailing the many Nebraska politicos who could run for the open Governor’s position in 2022. Current incumbent Pete Ricketts (R) is ineligible to run for a third term.

Among the people covered was the state’s entire congressional delegation. Perhaps the biggest surprise is the report that two-term Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is seriously considering running for Governor. With her Senate seat not in-cycle until 2024, after her 58-39% re-election win in 2018, Ms. Fischer would not have to risk her position in order to run. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), fresh from his third close victory in the swing 2nd Congressional District, a seat that gave President Joe Biden an extra electoral vote in the general election, is also characterized as considering a Governor’s bid. Reps. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Lincoln) and Adrian Smith (R-Gering) are unlikely gubernatorial candidates.

Texas

In another indication that former US Representative and presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke (D) is beginning to unite the Texas Democratic Party around his budding gubernatorial candidacy, former Housing & Urban Development Secretary and ex-presidential candidate Julian Castro, the former San Antonio Mayor and Councilman, said on Friday that it is “very unlikely he will run for any office in 2022.” At one point, Mr. Castro was not closing the door on a run for Governor. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is expected to run for a third term.

Virginia

Pete Snyder, a Republican venture capital businessman and former convention candidate for Lt. Governor, announced that he will enter the ongoing Virginia gubernatorial battle to succeed term-limited Gov. Ralph Northam (D). Already in the GOP race are former state House Speaker Kirk Cox and state Sen. Amanda Chase (R-Midlothian). For the Democrats, former Governor and Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe and Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax are the key candidates.

Cities

Atlanta

Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has drawn her first major re-election opponent in the person of City Council President Felicia Moore. The race is non-partisan in that party labels do not appear on the ballot, but both of these women are Democrats. Ms. Moore was quoted as saying that the city needs a change in leadership to address the rising crime rate and income inequality.

Detroit

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is a clear favorite to win a third term, but his next campaign might not be as easy as his first re-election effort (72% victory percentage). Anthony Adams, the city’s former Deputy Mayor under since jailed and then pardoned Kwame Kilpatrick, announced his own mayoral campaign yesterday. He indicated that there is a “dramatic need for mayoral change in the city of Detroit.”

New York City

Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang earlier this week released a Slingshot Strategies survey that posted him to a significant lead over his ten Democratic opponents, all vying to succeed retiring Mayor Bill de Blasio. According to the survey, Mr. Yang would top Brooklyn Borough president Eric Adams and NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, 25-17-12%, with all other candidates registering less than 10% support.

The poll particulars were not released, however, meaning the field survey dates and sample size. One clear flaw is the sample size consisting of 59% women, seven points higher than the Census Bureau female statistic for the city.


Showing 1 reaction

Please check your e-mail for a link to activate your account.