Check out these political snippets on the presidential and congressional races from around the country. 

President

Alaska

Alaska should be a safe state for former President Donald Trump, but the Ranked Choice Voting system that allows those who support the last place finisher to have a second vote can alter the results in favor of a minority party candidate. If a contender records majority support in the original vote, the RCV rounds do not occur.

The new Alaska Survey Research poll (10/8-9; 1,254 AK likely voters; online and text) projects Mr. Trump to hold a 50-43-7% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I). Though the Independent has attempted to withdraw in the battleground states and has subsequently endorsed Mr. Trump, he remains on the Alaska ballot.

The pollsters asked the second round question, and even within the Ranked Choice system, it appears Mr. Trump would carry the state. With most of Mr. Kennedy’s votes going to Trump in the second round, he would prevail 54-46%.

U.S. Senate

Michigan

The Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) firms partnered on a Michigan voter poll for AARP (10/2-8; 600 MI likely voters from a universe of 1,382 MI registered voters; live interview and text) and the results project that Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) holds a 49-46% edge over former US Rep. Mike Rogers* (R). The presidential vote, as a point of reference, was tied a 46% apiece between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

The results of this and other similar polls were enough to convince the Senate Leadership Fund to spend an additional $10.5 million in media time to aid Mr. Rogers. The new expenditure brings the SLF entire investment to $33 million. It appears the three Senate races in which Republicans see recent positive movement are Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Nebraska

The most surprising Senate race is the Nebraska campaign between Sen. Deb Fischer (R) and Independent Dan Osborn. Two new developments have occurred.

First, retired University of Nebraska championship head football coach and former US Congressman Tom Osborne cut a new ad for Sen. Fischer in which he explains that confusion exists because he and the Senate candidate share the same surname. He goes onto explain that he has never met Dan Osborn but does know Sen. Fischer. Coach Osborne, who is a revered legend in the state, then reiterates how important it is to re-elect Sen. Fischer.

Second, we have also seen conflicting polls within the last week with both candidates releasing internal surveys placing them six points ahead. Yesterday, Sen. Fischer’s campaign published another new poll to counter Osborn’s last release. The data is again from her campaign pollster, Torchlight Strategies (10/12-15; 625 NE likely voters), and this time places Sen. Fischer seven points ahead at 51-44%.

Nevada

Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is making a clear move to clinch her re-election with a massive $20 million media buy from October 11 through the election according to the AdImpact organization as reported in The Down Ballot political blog. This, they report, is four times the amount Republican Sam Brown* has reserved.

Sen. Rosen has been on the air nonstop since early in the campaign cycle. She has been able to overwhelm Brown with ads and appears to have successfully positioned herself for a comfortable re-election victory. At the beginning of the election cycle, this looked to be a potential Republican upset race, but now Sen. Rosen must be rated as a decided favorite.

Wisconsin

The Senate Leadership Fund, the top GOP Super PAC, has added $6.6 million to their ongoing Wisconsin media buy signaling that the most recent publicly released polls showing a tightening of the race between Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and businessman Eric Hovde (R) is verified through the organization’s internal data.

The last six polls from September 27th through October 9th have all returned single-digit results, with Sen. Baldwin’s lead ranging from a high of five percentage points (Redfield & Wilton Strategies and the Research Company) to a low of just one point (Insider Advantage). It appears we will see another tight finish in a Badger State that often features razor-thin results.

U.S. House of Representatives

AZ-2

Arizona pollster Noble Predictive Insights released a new survey that surprisingly depicts freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) as locked into a dead heat polling result with former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-2 as R+15. Mr. Crane, even as a freshman, was one of the House leaders to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) thus becoming labeled as one of the Freedom Caucus activists.

This is a race that had not been on anybody’s board but could quickly become a campaign of note. According to the new Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report for the period ending September 30th, both Rep. Crane and Mr. Nez have over $1 million cash-on-hand with the incumbent having about $400,000 more than the challenger. Assuming this poll is accurate, Rep. Crane will have to increase his turnout operation in order to stave off this upset attempt.

CA-34

Democratic movie executive David Kim has held Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) to 53 and 51% re-election victories in two consecutive election cycles, both double Democratic general elections under California’s top two primary system.

The United Democracy Project, a Super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), announced a $400,000 independent expenditure to help Rep. Gomez. In the past, Mr. Kim has advocated eliminating further US support for Israel. Rep. Gomez is favored for re-election, but it is likely this race will again be close.

CA-41

In 2022, veteran California US Rep. Ken Calvert* (R-Corona) defeated former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D) 52-48% in a Riverside County seat that the redistricting commission members made much more competitive. A new Global Strategy Group survey (for the House Majority PAC (D); 10/3-6; 500 CA-41 likely voters; live interview) sees the 2024 version of this race as a tie with each candidate receiving 45% support.

The Calvert-Rollins contest is one of the key California races that will likely make the difference in determining the House majority. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+7, so Rep. Calvert, running for a 17th term, should still be considered a slight favorite.

CA-49

Last week, we reported on a Survey USA poll of California’s coastal 49th District (10/2-6; 617 CA-49 likely voters) that found three-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) comfortably ahead of Republican Matt Gunderson by a twelve point margin, 53-41%. Now, the National Republican Congressional Committee has countered with their 1892 organization survey that produced a much different result.

According to the 1892 data (10/5-8; 400 CA-49 likely voters), the gap separating the two candidates is only one point, 46-45%, in Rep. Levin’s favor. The nature of this district suggests a close Democratic edge (FiveThirtyEight: D+5), so chances are the wide range of these two polls likely lands in the middle. Therefore, Rep. Levin must still be viewed as residing in the favorite’s position.

CT-5

The closeness of the 2022 western Connecticut congressional race between Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott) and then-state Senator George Logan (R) surprised most political observers with its 50.4 - 49.6% finish. With Mr. Logan returning for a rematch, Emerson College, polling for three media entities, (10/9-11; 725 CT-5 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) tested the race. According to the EC results, another close result can be expected. The ballot test shows Rep. Hayes leading Mr. Logan, 49-46%.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CT-5 as D+3. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the district as the 28th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference. Therefore, the voter history plus the current polling confirms that Rep. Hayes’ only maintains a slight edge.

GA-2

Georgia US Rep. Sanford Bishop* (D-Albany) was first elected to Congress in 1992 and has rarely had a close election. A newly released survey from the co/efficient polling firm (10/3-4; 847 GA-2 likely voters; live interview & text) for Republican nominee Wayne Johnson finds the challenger trailing Rep. Bishop by just three percentage points, 45-42%. This is a race that had not been considered competitive and has drawn little in the way of national attention. Whether outside groups from either side begin spending late money here is a point to be observed.

MI-7

A new Cygnal poll (10/6-8; 407 MI-7 likely voters; live interview and text) sees former state Senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett* (R) taking a four point lead, 47-43%, over former state Senator and ex-Whitmer chief of staff Curtis Hertel (D) in the open seat that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is risking to run for the Senate. The race is universally viewed as a toss-up campaign.

In 2022, Rep. Slotkin defeated Mr. Barrett, 52-46%. Placing this district in the Republican conversion column would be a boon to party’s hopes of holding their slim House majority.

NV-2

Similar to Sen. Deb Fischer’s Nebraska re-election situation, Nevada US Rep. Mark Amodei* (R-Carson City) also faces a strong Independent opponent and no Democrat. Greg Kidd is a registered Republican who qualified by petition signature to run in this congressional race as an Independent. Mr. Kidd is a venture capitalist and former analyst for the Federal Reserve and has committed $3 million of his own money to his campaign.

There has been no recent polling released for this race, so it is difficult to tell if the ballot test is close. An expenditure the size of what Mr. Kidd is capable of making, however, can certainly move numbers, but Rep. Amodei has so far been virtually inactive on the airwaves. Considering Mr. Kidd’s personal financial resources and commitment to self-financing his political effort to a major degree, expect Rep. Amodei to immediately increase his campaign presence.

TX-34

A new poll from the 1892 firm for the National Republican Congressional Committee (9-28/10-1; 400 TX-34 likely voters; live interview) finds Republican former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R) trailing Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) by just a 49-46% margin in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+17.

This is largely an under-the-radar race that has drawn little national attention but may be moving up the conversion priority chart. The poll is another indication that the Republicans are doing better with the Hispanic population. This district is 88% Hispanic and former President Donald Trump, in this same poll, leads Vice President Kamala Harris by a 49-47% in a seat drawn to elect a Democrat.

WI-3

In a race that has been teetering ever since the August primary, a new Normington Petts survey for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (10/3-7; 400 WI-3 likely voters; live interview & text) projects Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke to be taking a one point lead over freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien), 49-48%, and she leads 51-43% within the all-important Independent voter segment.

Rep. Van Orden defeated then-state Sen. Brad Pfaff (D) in the last election, but with a slightly disappointing 52-48% margin since the national Democratic establishment didn’t target the race and then-President Trump carried the seat in both 2016 and 2020. Prior to Mr. Van Orden winning the seat, former Rep. Ron Kind held the seat in the Democratic column for the previous 26 years. This is now becoming a significant district to watch on election night.

Voting

Target Early

The earliest national early voting numbers are published, and according to the Target Early/Target Smart website, the big change when compared to 2020 totals is the large increase in the non-affiliated participation rate. A total of 4.39 million people nationally have already cast their ballot, and a whopping 61.7% are from the non-affiliated category. This compares to their 52.9% total of all early votes cast in 2020.

Democrats, so far, are 24.4% of the early vote total, down from their 27.0% share in the 2020 presidential election. Republicans are further off, recording only 12.8% of the early vote as compared to their national total of 18.3% in 2020.

Naturally, these numbers will change drastically as the early voting process proceeds toward the election. In 2020, a total of 85.9 million people (54.3% of the total ballots cast) voted early from the universe of over 158 million who participated in the election.

At this preliminary stage, the ballots already cast represent 5% of the early vote total from the 2020 presidential election. It is likely that the early vote total will be lower in 2024 since the virtual universal mail vote in 2020 was largely a court-ordered emergency measure that won’t be in effect this year.