Political Snippets from Around the Country

Check out these political snippets on early voting, congressional and gubernatorial races from around the country. 

Early Voting

National Vote

Over 25 million people have already cast their ballots in the 2024 general election and while both Democrats and Republicans are slightly ahead of their 2020 percentage turnout benchmark, we see big increases in the rural vote, while the most consistent voters dominate the early ballot casts.

According to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart data organization, early voters from the rural areas are up a full eight points over their 2020 performance and almost four percentage points over the 2022 turnout statistics. Conversely, urban voters are down ten points from 2020 and six from the 2022 benchmark. Those listed as frequent and “super voters,” the latter meaning individuals who participate in every election, dominate the 2024 early voting statistics.

U.S. Senate

Michigan

Similar to what we see in the Pennsylvania race as described below, a new AtlasIntel poll shows Republican former Michigan US Rep. Mike Rogers* posting a small one point edge over Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), while another poll conducted simultaneously finds the Democrat holding a nine point lead.  AtlasIntel (10/12-17; 1,529 PA likely voters; online) projects Mr. Rogers to be holding a slight 49-48% advantage. The Bullfinch Group (10/11-17; 600 MI likely voters) finds a Slotkin margin of 51-42%.

Pennsylvania

For the first time, a new poll finds Republican David McCormick taking a small lead over Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D), which may explain why the incumbent is citing agreement with the Trump trade policies in a new ad and drawing a distinction between his position and the Biden Administration’s fracking policy. The AtlasIntel survey (10/12-17; 2,048 PA likely voters; online) projects Mr. McCormick to hold a 48-47% edge over Sen. Casey.

Simultaneously, however, the Bullfinch Group (10/11-17; 600 PA likely voters) shows the Senator leading their ballot test by seven percentage points, 50-43%. Sen. Casey has led throughout the entire election cycle, but his sudden message change to at least partially align himself with former President Donald Trump is eyebrow raising and suggests that the campaign’s internal data might be showing something closer to the AtlasIntel result.

Nebraska

The Republicans’ main Senate outside Super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, is dropping another $3 million onto the Nebraska airwaves to help GOP Sen. Deb Fischer* who is in an unexpectedly difficult race against Independent candidate Dan Osborn.

With no Democratic opponent, Sen. Fischer looked to have an easy road to a third term until Mr. Osborn surfaced as a credible candidate. Once he did, the Democrats coalesced around him and helped with his fundraising. In the 3rd Quarter, Mr. Osborn raised over $3.2 million and is running heavy negative personal attack ads against Sen. Fischer.

The Nebraska race is the surprise of the 2024 election cycle and has now become a critical contest with respect to the Senate majority. With Republicans on the threshold of claiming chamber control, they cannot afford to see any of their incumbents, including Sen. Fischer, upset.

Wisconsin

A fourth consecutive poll, this one from Emerson College (10/21-22; 800 WI likely voters; multiple sampling techniques), finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) lead over businessman Eric Hovde (R) falling to less than one percentage point, 48.4 – 47.7%. Since October 18th, three other pollsters have found a similar result.

Redfield & Wilton, Quinnipiac University, and the Trafalgar Group all posted the two candidates at even strength, or 1 point Baldwin leads on their ballot test questions. While Sen. Baldwin had maintained a consistent advantage over a period of months, it appears clear that this race has moved to toss-up status.

U.S. House of Representatives

AL-2

The newly created 2nd Congressional District is now beginning to perform as drawn. The original intent was to draw the seat to elect an African American Representative and after a flirtation with Republican Caroleen Dobson, the electorate appears to be returning to normal trends. The legislature was under court order to draw a second majority minority seat, and this district is the result.

A Schoen Cooperman Research survey conducted for the Protect Progress liberal Super PAC (10/14-17; 400 AL-2 likely voters) finds former Obama Administration official Shomari Figurers (D) leading Ms. Dobson by a 49-38% count, which should put the race to bed for the Democrats.

CA-47

WPA Intelligence released the results of their latest survey of the Orange County, CA housed open 47th District featuring former Republican state Assemblyman Scott Baugh and Democratic state Senator Dave Min of Irvine. According to the poll results, Mr. Baugh claims a 43-40% edge over Mr. Min from the survey of 401 CA-47 likely voters through a pool of 1,348 registered voters through live interview calls, interactive voice response, and texts.

The GOP converting this open seat would be a major positive in their quest to maintain their small House majority. The 47th District rates as D+6 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. In 2022, Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) defeated Mr. Baugh 52-48% but had to outspend him by a 10:1 ratio, dropping almost $30 million into her race.

Rep. Porter risked the seat this year to run unsuccessfully for the state’s open US Senate seat, failing to advance into the general election from the jungle primary.

FL-13

Florida pollster St. Pete Polls conducted a survey of the Pinellas County anchored 13th CD (10/20; 905 FL-13 registered voters; interactive voice response system & text) and sees Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg), running for a second term, languishing in a 46-46% tie with Democrat Whitney Fox.

The poll’s accuracy factor is a bit suspect because they show a weighted sample comprised of 41% Republican respondents and 32% Democratic, yet former President Donald Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris, 50-47%. While the district is competitive, these numbers suggest an outlier. Rep. Luna running ahead of Trump is a good sign for her, but this poll will likely prove inaccurate when the votes are actually counted.

Additionally, with almost 67,000 early votes recorded, the Republican number is exceeding past performance, which is another data point not in accordance with these poll results.

MI-8

The National Republican Congressional Committee just released a NMB Research poll (10/13-15; 400 MI-8 likely voters) that continues to find GOP nominee Paul Junge*, who has twice run for the seat against retiring incumbent Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township), clinging to a small one-point lead, 41-40%, over state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City).

The 8th District, which houses the municipalities of Flint, Saginaw, Midland, and Bay City, is a swing district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+1. The Down Ballot political blog ranks MI-8 as the 11th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference. Therefore, both the polling and vote history suggest this district is performing as predicted.

MI-10

Michigan pollster The Glengariff Group surveyed the state’s politically marginal 10th District (10/14-18; 400 MI-10 likely voters; live interview) for two media outlets, the Detroit News and WDIV Channel 4 in Detroit. The results find freshman Rep. John James* (R-Farmington Hills) leading his 2022 opponent Carl Marlinga (D), a former judge and prosecutor, by a 47-44% count.

The 10th District is a Detroit suburban seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+6, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.5D – 47.9% partisan lean. The Down Ballot political blog ranks MI-10 as the 24th most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference. This is another of the key national congressional districts that will help determine which party controls the next House majority.

MT-1

Montana US Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) was first elected to the state’s at-large House seat in 2014 and re-elected in 2016. Shortly, after the election, then-President-Elect Trump nominated Mr. Zinke as US Interior Secretary, a position he held for two years. When Montana earned a second congressional district in the 2020 census, Mr. Zinke returned to elective politics and won the Treasure State’s new western 1st District, but with an margin of 50-46% in a seat the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+10.

With 2022 Democratic nominee Monica Tranel back for a rematch, it was thought the ’24 race could again be close. A new Guidant Polling & Strategies survey, however, suggests Rep. Zinke is in position to improve upon his previous performance.

The poll (conducted for the Congressional Leadership Fund; 10/13-16; 400 MT-1 likely voters; live interview & text) projects the Congressman to hold a 52-44% advantage. Yet, a new Impact Research survey for the Tranel campaign (10/14-17; 500 MT-1 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees the race coming back into the one point range with the incumbent still maintaining the slightest of leads.

NM-2

The rematch between current New Mexico US Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) and former Rep. Yvette Herrell* (R), a 2022 race decided by less than a percentage point, continues to poll close but the Congressman maintains a clear lead.

The Research & Polling organization, conducting a survey for the Albuquerque Journal newspaper (10/10-18; 414 NM-2 likely voters; live interview), finds Rep. Vasquez leading 49-45%. This race will attract a great deal of attention on election night as it is one of the key GOP challenger races that could wrest a Democratic seat away.

New York

Siena College tested two Long Island Districts and found scandal tainted freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito* (R-Island Park) trailing badly in the region’s 4th Congressional District. According to the Siena survey (for Newsday; 10/13-17; 532 NY-4 likely voters), the Congressman trails former Hempstead Town Supervisor and 2022 congressional nominee Laura Guillen (D) by a substantial 53-41% deficit figure.

In eastern Long Island, freshman Rep. Nick LaLota* (R-Suffolk County) has only a three point lead over former CNN anchor John Avlon (D). The Siena poll, also conducted for Newsday (10/13-17; 526 NY-1 likely voters), posts the Congressman to a 47-44% edge.

NY-19

A Global Strategy Group large sample survey for the Josh Riley (D) campaign (10/9-13; 801 NY-19 likely voters; live interview & text) gives the challenger a 48-45% lead in a district that the 2023 redistricting map actually made slightly more Republican. In comparison to the presidential race, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by only one point, meaning the incumbent Republican and former Dutchess County Executive is running behind his party’s presidential ticket.

New York will play a major role in determining the next House majority, and this is a district the Republicans need to keep in their column if they are to have a chance of retaining their small majority. Expect right of center outside groups to increase spending in this district. Mr. Riley is outspending the incumbent by almost a 2:1 ratio, while outside groups are helping him in a 3:1 count from combined external spending of over $8 million.

VA-2

A Christopher Newport University survey (10/11-20; 800 VA-2 likely voters; live interview) sees freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans* (R-Virginia Beach) leading Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal by only a single percentage point, 46-45%, in a district that former President Trump lost by two percentage points in 2020 and trails by two in this survey.

This is another tight congressional race that will go a long way toward determining the House majority. If the Democrats unseat Rep. Kiggans, it is highly likely that they will wrest the majority away from the Republicans. VA-2 becomes a must-win for the Republicans, so expect to see some further independent expenditure money coming into the district during the final week of campaigning.

Governor

Indiana

Democrats are not giving up their desire to flip the open Indiana Governor’s race. The Democratic Governor’s Association just increased their investment in party nominee Jennifer McCormick’s campaign by 40%, bringing their entire contribution to her campaign to over $1 million.

Publicly released polls of this race have been sparse. A total of five surveys have been placed in the public domain since September 1st. US Senator Mike Braun (R), eschewing a second federal term in order to compete in the Governor’s race, leads in all five polls by an average of six percentage points. 


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