Check out these political snippets on the presidential and congressional races from around the country. 

President

Kamala Harris

Rumors are surfacing in California that a group of Kamala Harris’ supporters are beginning to test the waters for her to run for Governor of California in 2026. Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so the position will be open in the next election. Prior to her election as Vice President, Ms. Harris had been elected to the Senate from California. She had also been twice elected as the state’s Attorney General.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) are already announced gubernatorial candidates. In the top two primary system, it would not be surprising to see two Democrats advance into the general election. Ms. Harris won a similar campaign when she was first elected to the Senate in 2016 where she captured almost 62% of the vote against then-US Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Orange County).

Popular Vote Count

All of the states with the exception of Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington have only a smattering of overseas votes left to be received and counted, with the Golden State, of course, having the largest contingent of remaining uncounted ballots. California, because they verify every signature for mailed ballots, always takes weeks to finalize their election results. Approximately 3.5 million votes are outstanding in the four states.

President-elect Donald Trump’s current popular vote margin will recede when these states are fully counted, but he is likely to carry the national vote with at least a 2 million vote edge, and potentially secure majority support nationwide.

He currently sits a 50.11% with over 75.7 million votes, while Kamala Harris tallies 48.0% for a total of 72.65 million votes. The total turnout looks to exceed 154 million, making it the second largest turnout in American history. Only 2020 with just over 158.5 million ballots cast would be larger.

U.S. Senate

Arizona

In what was predicted to be an easier road for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to replace retiring Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), the Grand Canyon State Senate race was finally projected over the weekend in the Democratic Representative’s favor. With 95% of the Arizona vote tallied, Rep. Gallego tallies 50.1% support while his opponent, Republican former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake recorded a better than expected 47.7%. The raw number difference at this point in the counting is 79,102 votes.

With Republican victories over Senate Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania post-recount, and winning the open Democratic seat in West Virginia, the Republicans will lead the new Senate with a 53-47 majority.

Florida

Sunshine State Sen. Marco Rubio (R) this week was chosen as the country’s Secretary of State. The Senator will resign his current position just two years into his third six-year term. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will then be charged with replacing Sen. Rubio through appointment. The new Senator will then have the opportunity of running in 2026 to fill the balance of the current term, and then again for a full six-year stint in 2028.

Rumors are being quashed that Gov. DeSantis would either appoint himself or his wife, Casey DeSantis, to replace Sen. Rubio when he resigns to become Secretary of State.

With President-Elect Trump already selecting three US House members for appointments, including Florida Congressmen Mike Waltz* (R-St. Augustine Beach) and Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) as National security Advisor and Attorney General, none of the state’s 18 other Republican House members will be considered for the Senate appointment since the new House majority is expected to be razor-thin.

Rather, topping the list of potential appointees appear to be Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Attorney General Ashley Moody, and former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva.

Ohio

Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who President-Elect Donald Trump yesterday appointed along with Elon Musk to head a new official government efficiency operation, confirmed that he is no longer under consideration to replace Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance in the US Senate.

Mr. Vance will resign from the Senate at some point before being sworn in as Vice President on January 20th. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement to serve the balance of the current term. Since Mr. Vance was elected in 2022, the new appointed Senator will run to complete the current term in 2026, and then again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle.

Pennsylvania

Keystone State Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt announced late this week that the US Senate results featuring Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R) will move to a mandated recount because the difference between the two competitors is less than ½ a percentage point. Under Pennsylvania election law, recounts are mandated when the vote margin is less than a half point.

Mr. Schmidt says the final count in each county must be completed before the recount begins no later than November 20th. The political overtime count must conclude by November 26th with the final report sent to the Secretary’s office on November 27th.

The ruling is somewhat curious in that the counties have apparently not finished the counting process, so it is presumed that should the final unofficial count grows to a margin greater than ½ percent the recount will be cancelled.

The reported results and percentages are: McCormick: 3,380,310 (48.93%); Casey 3,350,972 (48.50%). The McCormick margin is 29,338 votes.

2026 Campaign Decisions

Two Senators thought to be either on the retirement list or among those running for another office, both announced they will seek re-election in 2026. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), completing her 28th year in the Senate, declared that she will run for a sixth term in the next election. Speculation was brisk that she would opt for retirement.

Rumors that Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) would run for his state’s open Governor’s position in 2026 were also quelled this week. Instead of entering the Governor’s race, Sen. Tuberville made public his plan to seek re-election for a second term.

U.S. House of Representatives

Alaska

With so many ballots still outstanding in Alaska including those mailed but not received, the overseas ballots, the four unreported precincts, and the provisional ballots from around the state, it is likely that we won’t have a projection on the at-large Alaska House race until November 20th, the deadline for the state to report the unofficial final results. The Alaska election certification deadline is Nov. 30th.

At this point, Republican Nick Begich, III has a 9,435 vote lead over US Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). Mr. Begich stands at 49.1% of the counted vote versus Rep. Peltola’s 46.0%. The number of uncounted or unreceived ballots could be as high as 44,000 votes.

Should no candidate receive 50% plus one vote once the final count is announced, the Ranked Choice Voting round would then begin. To overcome Mr. Begich’s lead, Rep. Peltola will have to secure at least 60% of the remaining votes. Ranked Choice could change the outcome, but currently, Mr. Begich appears to be in the driver’s seat.

California

The remaining California races yet to be called are the following: District 13 (Rep. John Duarte* (R) vs. Adam Gray (D)); District 21 (Rep. Jim Costa (D) vs. Michael Maher (R)); and District 45 (Rep. Michelle Steel* (R) vs. Derek Tran (D)).

Reps. Costa, leads by 5,539 votes and is expected to soon be declared the winner. Rep. Duarte leads his race by 3,765 votes. Projections suggest, assuming the counties will break in the outstanding vote category as they did within the counted votes, that Rep. Duarte will break even within the latter category, thus securing re-election. Rep. Steel leads by only 349 votes meaning this election is up for grabs. As many as 26,000 votes remain to be counted.

CA-27

Ex-Virgin Atlantic CEO George Whitesides has defeated three-term Rep. Mike Garcia* (R-Santa Clarita) by a 51.3 – 48.7% margin in the state’s 27th District, which is fully contained in northern Los Angeles County.

The result is not particularly surprising. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission members increased the Democratic base in this district making it a D+8 as opposed to a D+5 under the previous map. The ratings are taken from the FiveThirtyEight data organization that profiles all 435 US House seats. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians ranked CA-27 as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.

Rep. Garcia first won a differently configured district, numbered 25, in a 2020 special election. He was re-elected in the former 25th later that year, and then won again in new District 27 two years ago. In all three previous elections, Mr. Garcia defeated former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D).

CA-47

Democratic state Senator Dave Min (D-Irvine) recorded a come from behind victory over former state Assemblyman and 2022 congressional general election finalist Scott Baugh* (R) in California’s open 47th District with a 50.9 – 49.1% victory margin according to a projection made earlier in the week.

Republicans had hopes of converting this seat from the Democratic column, but the presidential election year turnout model in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+6 was too much for Mr. Baugh to overcome.

The Min victory means only four uncalled races remain, three of which lie in California. The current House count now stands at 219R – 212D. The 47th District was open because incumbent Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked the seat to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate.

CO-8

Freshman Colorado US Representative Yadira Caraveo (D-Thurston) became the eighth incumbent to lose his or her seat as her Republican opponent, state Representative Gabe Evans* (R-Westminster), was declared the 2024 election winner.

Mr. Evans, also an Army veteran and former police officer, claims the politically marginal 8th District by just under a percentage point in a northern Centennial State seat that was designed to produce close elections.

The 8th District, which was awarded to Colorado in the 2020 census, was placed north and northeast of Denver and includes the cities of Greeley, Thurston, and Westminster. It is a highly marginal political district and, for the second time since the boundaries were adopted, has produced a winner whose victory margin was under one percentage point.

FL-1

In a developing story, President-Elect Donald Trump said Wednesday that he will nominate controversial Florida US Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) as the next US Attorney General. Mr. Gaetz then immediately announced his resignation from the House.

With another House member being chosen for the new Administration, and the majority not yet being completely cemented, the Republicans may be flirting with political “gimbal lock” that could potentially lead to the Democrats gaining control of the body. Much more on this situation to come.

OR-5

Oregon freshman Republican Representative Lori Chavez-DeRemer* (R-Happy Valley) failed in her re-election campaign against state Representative Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) who won a plurality vote victory.

With 96% of the vote counted, Ms. Bynum clinched the election with a 47.7 to 45.2% margin, or a vote spread of 9,575 votes from the 386,225 counted ballots. The incumbent loss was not a surprise since the 5th CD is rated as D+3 from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. OR-5 was ranked as the ninth most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.