Check out these political snippets on congressional and gubernatorial races from around the country. 

U.S. Senate

Louisiana

Last week, we reported that outgoing Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta is considering launching a 2026 partisan primary challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), and now state Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R) announced that he will challenge the Senator.

Outgoing Congressman Garret Graves* (R-Baton Rouge), who was the Republican casualty under the state’s new congressional redistricting map, is also mentioned as a possible candidate. Another who is confirming preliminary Senate race interest is Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) who just won a fifth US House term with 71% of the vote.

The Louisiana political situation will be different in 2026 because the state is moving away from the top two jungle primary system for some offices and returning to the partisan primary procedure that most states use. Under the new legislation, races for the US Senate, US House, state school board, Public Service Commission, and state Supreme Court Justices will go to a partisan primary.

The Louisiana Secretary of State has already released a schedule for the new election calendar. The partisan primaries will be held on April 18, 2026. If no candidate receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on May 30, 2026.

Maine

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) did not close the door on a 2026 challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) when asked about the possibility late last week, but other comments and circumstances suggest that she is unlikely to launch such a campaign. In any event, expect the Democrats to field a strong candidate against Sen. Collins even if they fail to entice Gov. Mills into running.

As an aside, the Governor was actually laudatory in a comment about Sen. Collins becoming the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Gov. Mills stated that she is “pleased” Collins will have her new position and termed it as “an asset for the State of Maine.” These are not quite the comments one might expect from a future political opponent. 

New Jersey

Garden State caretaker Senator George Helmy (D), who Gov. Phil Murphy (D) appointed to replace resigned Sen. Bob Menendez (D) on an interim basis, announced that he will resign this weekend. Sen. Helmy is doing so to allow Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who won the general election on November 5th, to begin his Senate career early as Gov. Murphy will appoint him to replace Helmy. There are likely to be important lame duck session votes in the Senate later this month for which Sen-Elect Kim will now participate.

North Carolina

The Victory Insights data organization surveyed the North Carolina electorate about the upcoming 2026 US Senate race, and a Republican primary battle between Sen. Thom Tillis and Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump would break decidedly toward the challenger. In the general election, both Sen. Tillis and Ms. Trump would each trail outgoing Governor Roy Cooper (D) by one percentage point according to the VI data.

The Victory Insights survey (11/26-27 & 29; 800 NC registered voters; interactive voice response system & text) finds that among an undisclosed sample of Republican primary voters, Ms. Trump, a native of North Carolina, would easily defeat Sen. Tillis in the GOP primary by a whopping 64-11% count. At this point, there is no indication that Ms. Trump would run, but this poll is certainly a warning sign for Sen. Tillis.

South Carolina

Palmetto State US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who in November was just re-elected to his fifth term in the House, is confirming reports that he is considering both a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham, or entering what will be an open race for Governor. In the latter race, incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to seek a third full term. 

Both races would be considered uphill. While Rep. Norman is more conservative than Sen. Graham, the latter man has a strong relationship with President-Elect Donald Trump. Therefore, what might normally be considered a Trump endorsement for Norman may not materialize in this case. For Governor, the potential leading candidate is two-term Attorney General Alan Wilson (R), son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale). Another reported potential gubernatorial candidate is US Rep. Nancy Mace* (R-Charleston).

U.S. House of Representatives

CA-13

Weeks after the election, we finally have all 435 congressional races decided. In northern California’s 13th District, we now see former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) defeating freshman US Rep. John Duarte* (R-Modesto) by just 187 votes. There will be no recount. Rep. Duarte will not contest the outcome, and so the closest race in the country draws to a close. Mr. Duarte says he hopes to continue serving the public in other ways and is open to again running for Congress. Therefore, we could see a third race between these two in 2026.

The Gray win means the House will divide at 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats, an overall one seat gain for Democrats from the current Congress. The margin will drop to 217-215 with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) having already resigned from the House and Reps. Mike Waltz* (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik* (R-NY) soon to be headed into Trump Administration positions. It is likely the House will remain in the 217-215 mode until early April since the special elections for the two Florida seats will occur on April 1st.

FL-1

A total of five announced Republican special election candidates have exited the race to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) in the northwestern Florida Panhandle’s 1st Congressional District special election. All five then endorsed Florida CFO Jimmy Petronis, who also has the public support of President-Elect Donald Trump and just re-elected Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R). 

Therefore, the race looks to be a battle between Mr. Petronis and state Representative and physician Joel Rudman (R-Navarre), along with several minor candidates. The special GOP primary, scheduled for January 28th, will determine Mr. Gaetz’s successor in what is Florida’s safest Republican US House seat.

FL-6

President-Elect Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson* (R-LA) have already chosen their preferred candidate to replace outgoing Florida US Rep. Mike Waltz* (R-St. Augustine Beach). The latter man has been chosen as Mr. Trump’s National Security Advisor and announced that he will resign his seat on January 20th, the day the President-Elect is sworn into office for a non-consecutive second term.

With the aforementioned endorsements, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) is the clear early favorite. Because of the Waltz’s early appointment notice, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was able to combine the state’s two special congressional elections into one calendar cycle (primary January 28th; special general, April 1st).

IA-1

The recount in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District is now complete and the final result ended as expected. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks* (R-LeClaire) has now officially won a third term. The recount, requested by opponent Christina Bohannan (D), changed the original vote total by just four votes. Instead of Ms. Miller-Meeks winning by 802 votes, the official total will now be adjusted to a 798 vote margin. Interestingly, this is not the closest election of the Congresswoman’s career. Her initial victory spread in 2020 was only six votes, so this 798 vote win is a landslide in comparison.

MA-6

Massachusetts US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) has been under fire from the far left of his party over comments he made criticizing the practice of allowing biological males to participate in female athletics. The firestorm has caused a possible 2026 Democratic primary opponent to come forward.

Dan Koh, who was chief of staff to former Boston Mayor and US Labor Secretary Marty Walsh (D), lost a 3rd District Democratic primary by just 145 votes in 2018 (to current Rep. Lori Trahan) but then rebounded to win a town Supervisors race in the Andover locality. Mr. Koh was quoted as saying he is considering launching a Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Moulton in 2026.

Mr. Moulton was first elected in 2014 when he defeated then-Congressman John Tierney in the Democratic primary. He has easily been renominated and re-elected in every succeeding election. In the 2024 cycle, Rep. Moulton faced only write-in candidates in both his primary and general election campaigns. The Congressman will be favored in the next election irrespective of who opposes him.

Governor

Michigan

The Wolverine State will host one of 15 open Governor’s races next year because the incumbents are term-limited, so candidates are already beginning to make moves. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who switched from the Democratic Party to Independent status earlier this year, is serving his third term having been originally elected at the end of 2013. This week, the Mayor became the first individual to announce for Governor, and he will run as an Independent.

Mr. Duggan is viewed as an effective Mayor for a city that had major problems when he assumed office. Coming from the state’s largest municipality, his Independent candidacy could become serious. This means we could see a very interesting three-way Michigan gubernatorial campaign in 2026. Certainly, both the Democrats and Republicans will field their own candidates, so we will likely see a winner crowned with only a plurality victory margin.

Minnesota

Now that the election is over for Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s national run as Kamala Harris’ Vice Presidential choice, attention is turning to whether the former national candidate will run for a third gubernatorial term. Gov. Walz has not yet disclosed his political plans, but a member of the US House delegation has increased his public attacks on the Governor suggesting a potential challenge.

Rep. Pete Stauber* (R-Hermantown/Duluth), who was just re-elected to a fourth House term with 58% of the vote, has become more aggressive in commenting upon the Governor’s policies. This suggests that he may be laying the groundwork for a gubernatorial challenge. Many House members are assessing Governors’ races in 2026, so we can add Mr. Stauber to the list of congressional members to watch.

New York

US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) is confirming reports that he is considering challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in the 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Mr. Torres, a staunch defender of Israel, also says he would consider entering the crowded 2025 New York City Mayor’s race but the Governor’s challenge, he reiterates, is “more appealing.” 

Gov. Hochul, who ascended to the Governor’s office from her elected post as Lt. Governor when then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned, defeated New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) 67-19-13% in the 2022 Democratic primary. She won the general election with an underwhelming 53-47% margin over then-US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R).

Of all 50 states, President-Elect Trump’s performance improved over his 2020 showing by the most in the country, a net 11.4 percentage points. Therefore, the state could potentially become more competitive in future elections.

Tennessee

Volunteer State Gov. Bill Lee (R) is another of the state chief executives who is ineligible to seek re-election, thereby Tennessee will also feature an open Governor’s campaign. Even before the 2024 election, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) made clear his intention to run for Governor.

Now, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) is also confirming that he, too, is considering a run for the state’s top job. We are sure to see crowded open seat gubernatorial primaries in both parties around the country in 2026. It already appears that Tennessee will certainly feature a hot contest to succeed Gov. Lee.

States

Alaska

Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who is Alaska’s chief elections officer, has indicated that she will order a recount for the very tight Ranked Choice Voting repeal ballot initiative.

By just 664 votes, a small majority of the electorate fought back an effort to squelch the state’s Top Four/Ranked Choice Voting primary system that was adopted in 2020. A total of 320,574 ballots were cast in the election and the vote opposing repeal was 50.1% while those favoring repeal recorded 49.9%. The vote total is close enough where the recount could conceivably change the outcome.