Political Snippets from Around the Country

Check out these political snippets on the presidential, congressional and gubernatorial races from across the country. 


Indiana Primary

Since the presidential contest is effectively over, it was with little surprise that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump easily won their respective primaries. Turnout heavily favored Republicans, as the GOP participation total outpaced the Democrats by almost 400,000 voters. Of the 35 states holding primaries or definable caucus votes, Republicans have seen more voters cast ballots than Democrats in 26 domains. Of those voting in the Hoosier State, 76.6% of the individuals chose the Republican primary.

U.S. Senate


A surprising poll was just released from Emerson College (5/6-8; 1,115 MD registered voters; 462 MD likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) that sees Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for the first time slipping past US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac). The results yield a 42-41% count despite Ms. Alsobrooks being outspent by an almost 10:1 ratio. This data clearly suggests that the upcoming May 14th Democratic primary election will yield an interesting night.

The general election data is surprising, too. After several earlier polls projected former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan (R) holding leads over his Democratic opponents, this survey posts both Alsobrooks and Trone to nine (46-37%) and ten point (48-38%), respective leads over the ex-state chief executive.

West Virginia

With just days to go before the May 14th West Virginia primary, Research America conducted another GOP US Senate survey (4/24-5/1; 407 WV likely Republican primary voters; live interview & online) and released the results. The data finds Gov. Jim Justice* leading US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) by a huge 67-23% tally. Gov. Justice is expected to win the Republican nomination next week and the Senate seat in November.

U.S. House of Representatives


California Secretary of State Shirley Weber (D) announced that she is dropping her office’s appeal of the ruling that allows Assemblyman Vince Fong* (R-Bakersfield) to run for the open 20th District congressional seat while still on the ballot for state Assembly. Ms. Weber contended that a candidate cannot seek two offices simultaneously.

Two court rulings, however, allowed Mr. Fong to continue his regular election campaign for the seat from which former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) resigned even after qualifying for the state Assembly ballot. Ms. Weber’s action means that Mr. Fong’s congressional candidacy is finally unimpeded.

Assemblyman Fong did appear on the ballot for both offices on the March 5th jungle primary. He placed first in the congressional race and was unopposed for re-election to his current office. He is also on the ballot for the May 21st special congressional election to fill Mr. McCarthy’s unexpired term. In both the special election and in November, Mr. Fong will face Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux in a double-Republican format.

Should Fong win the special election, and he is favored to do so, he will resign from the Assembly. At that point, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will call a special election to fill the balance of the unexpired Assembly term and another for the regular election.


While 3rd District incumbent Jim Banks has an easy run for the Senate, the Republican primary to replace him in the House evolved into a highly competitive political battle. The winner is former Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R) who clinched the nomination with just 24.2% of the vote. Following Mr. Stutzman are businessman Tim Smith with 22.6% support, former circuit judge Wendy Davis at 19.4%, and state Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington) who posted a close 16.4% preference factor.

With the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating IN-3 as R+34, there is little doubt that Mr. Stutzman will win the general election and return to the House after leaving Congress at the beginning of 2017. In 2016, then-Representative Stutzman ran for the Senate but failed to overcome then-US Rep. Todd Young in the Republican primary. Mr. Young would then go onto win the open Senate seat in 2016 and re-election in 2022.


The Indiana House incumbent facing the most competitive challenge was Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) who originally announced her retirement only to change her mind before filing time. Despite attracting just 39% of the vote, she wins the plurality primary, which should be enough political insurance to easily carry the general election in this central Indiana district at the beginning of November.

The Congresswoman’s closest finisher is state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville) whose 33% support figure was unsurprisingly not strong enough to topple the incumbent. None of the other seven GOP candidates even reached the 10% mark. The new Democratic nominee is educator Deborah Pickett who won her party’s nomination with 59% of the vote. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+22, Rep. Spartz will have little trouble winning a third term later this year.


Three-term Rep. Greg Pence (R-Columbus) is retiring, and the Republican nomination battle in this district became fierce. The winner is former Indianapolis City Councilman Jefferson Shreve, who was both the campaign’s biggest fundraiser, and the subject of the most negative attacks. Mr. Shreve self-financed $4.5 million of his campaign effort, which was enough to secure a 29-22-21% victory over state Rep. Mike Speedy (R-Indianapolis) and businessman Jamison Carrier. IN-6 is the safest Republican seat in the state, so Mr. Shreve will have little trouble holding the district in the GOP column come the November election.


Seven-term Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Evansville) is the third member of the Hoosier State US House delegation not to seek re-election. Like in the 3rd District, a former Congressman, John Hostettler who represented the seat from 1995-2007, was attempting a political comeback. The result did not turn out as well for Mr. Hostettler as it did for Mr. Stutzman.

The winner of the 8th District Republican primary is state Senator Mark Messmer (R-Jasper) who appeared to be the leading candidate from the outset. He topped Mr. Hostettler with a 38.5 -19.6% victory margin. None of the other six candidates reached the 15% mark. Sen. Messmer now becomes the prohibitive favorite to succeed Rep. Bucshon in the November election.


The three judge federal panel that invalidated the new Louisiana congressional map is now sending the plan back to the state legislature with a deadline of June 3rd to redraw the plan. This time, there is no judicial requirement to specifically add a new majority minority district. In response, Secretary of State Nancy Landry (R) is filing an appeal of the original ruling with the US Supreme Court and criticized the panel for not adhering to her May 15th deadline for producing a 2024 map. She said the state needs such a time frame to adequately administer the election. While the Louisiana redistricting situation will soon come to a head, it is difficult to see exactly how the map’s final version will develop.


A new publicly released survey posts former Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney (D) leading the large field of 13 Democratic candidates vying to succeed Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) who is running for the Senate. The primary election is this Tuesday.

The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group conducted the survey for the Delaney campaign. The poll (5/6-7; 400 MD-6 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds Ms. Delaney topping state Delegate Joe Vogel (D-Montgomery County) by a 37-24% margin. The pollsters indicate that the remaining 11 candidates combined only posted a cumulative 17% support factor.

There is a wide discrepancy in the polls, however. Recently, Mr. Vogel released a Public Policy Polling survey (4/25-26; 588 MD-6 likely voters; live interview & text) that showed both Vogel and McClain Delaney with 24% support factors. While the data results are very different, it is clear that the primary contest has winnowed to a two-way race.


Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has called a special election to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) who passed away on April 24th. The special primary will be held on July 16th, with the special general on September 18th. The winner will take the seat in late September and then be on the ballot for the regular term on November 5th.

Because Rep. Payne passed away after the candidate filing deadline, the local Democratic Party organizations will choose a replacement nominee after the July 16th special primary for the regular term. It is presumed the delegates will choose the special primary winner, and Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver (D) appears to be the candidate consolidating the earliest support.

Also expressing interest in running for the party nomination are Hudson County Commissioner Jerry Walker, Linden Mayor Derek Armstead, East Orange City Councilwoman Brittany Claybrooks, and NJ state official David Godfrey. Republican Carmen Bucco and Green Party candidate Jon Serrano, along with Congressman Payne, were the only candidates to file at the March 25th filing deadline.

The Democrats will easily retain the Newark anchored 10th District. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+58, and President Joe Biden scored an 81-19% victory here in 2020. 


On Friday, ten-term Texas US Rep. Henry Cuellar* (D-Laredo) and his wife were indicted on federal bribery charges, but the Congressman says he is innocent and will not leave his re-election race. After two consecutive close call renomination campaigns in 2020 and 2022, Rep. Cuellar was unopposed in this year’s Democratic primary.

The Republican side ended in a runoff between retired Navy officer Jay Furman and rancher Lazaro Garza that will be decided on May 28th. Neither man was expected to mount a major challenge in the general election, but the Congressman’s legal situation could change the district’s politics.


A just released Battleground Connect poll (4/30-5/2; 504 VA-5 likely voters; live interview) finds two-term Virginia US Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) falling well behind his Republican primary challenger, state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot). According to the survey data, Sen. McGuire would lead Congressman Good by a double digit margin, 45-31%, as the two battle for position in anticipation of the June 18th Old Dominion primary.

The McGuire effort, which has been principally hitting Rep. Good over his lack of support for former President Donald Trump, is being supplemented by heavy outside spending much of which is coming from organizations affiliated with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who Rep. Good was instrumental in deposing.

Additionally, this is the first time Mr. Good has faced a primary election. Previously, he was nominated through a district convention, which is the way he denied former Rep. Denver Riggleman renomination in 2020.


Dispelling retirement speculation surrounding Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside), one of two remaining Republican House members to vote for the Trump impeachment, the Congressman announced that he will seek re-election. Retirement conjecture grew when 2022 US Senate candidate Tiffany Smiley (R) jumped into the race earlier this week.

Additionally, before Ms. Smiley announced her candidacy, former President Donald Trump endorsed race car driver Jerrod Sessler (R) who, at the time, was Rep. Newhouse’s only declared opponent. Washington employs the top two jungle primary system, so it is possible that both Rep. Newhouse and Ms. Smiley could advance to the general election. This will become a hot August 6th Republican primary.


West Virginia

As the West Virginia open gubernatorial candidates head into the last week of campaigning before the primary election next Tuesday, a new Emerson College survey (5/2-5; 558 WV likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) continues to see Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading the GOP primary race, but his edge is narrowing as the whole field is becoming bunched.

The Emerson results reveal a 33-29-21-15% split among AG Morrisey, former state Delegate Moore Capito, businessman Chris Miller, and Secretary of State Mac Warner, respectively. Next’s week primary winner will become the prohibitive favorite to succeed Gov. Jim Justice* (R) who will likely be nominated for the US Senate in the same election. The erratic polling in the past few weeks in this race suggests we could be headed for a very close final result on election night.

*denotes candidate received AGC PAC support during the 2023-2024 election cycle. 

Showing 1 reaction

Please check your e-mail for a link to activate your account.