Check out these political snippets on the presidential and congressional races from around the country. 

President

President Biden

As we know, President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race last Sunday and now the Democrats are faced with the task of choosing a new nominee. The most logical and practical selection is Vice President Kamala Harris, and she is fast becoming the presumptive nominee. President Biden has already endorsed her, helping to bolster her claim for the position.

Additionally, a focal point of the argument that the President made in favor of staying in the race was the 14+ million people who voted for him throughout the primary voting process. Vice President Harris is the only person who can claim with some legitimacy that the people voting for Biden were also approving her position on the national ticket.

Perhaps most importantly, the money transfer is a critical factor in the transition to a new nominee. The current Biden campaign treasury, some $91.5 million according to the June 30th Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report, can only be transferred to Vice President Harris the Democrats maintain and have acted as such, already changing the name of the Biden committee to Harris for President. For any other candidate, the Biden money would have to be refunded to donors and then re-contributed to the new nominee.

Vice-President Harris

News reports suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris is considering one appointed and four elected officials as possible replacements for herself as she ascends to the presidential nomination. The first cut of potential running mates appears to feature Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and at least three Governors: J.B. Pritzker (IL), Roy Cooper (NC), and Josh Shapiro (PA).

Trump Campaign

Former President Donald Trump’s campaign, and several other Republican and conservative organizations, have filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission arguing that Vice President Kamala Harris’ new campaign committee is not entitled to a direct transfer of the some $91+ million that President Joe Biden held in his campaign account. Many believe that because she was on the presidential ticket her campaign committee would have access to the funds.

The Trump lawyers point out, however, that the official name of the presidential committee is simply, “Joe Biden for President.” The committee name has been changed to “Harris for President,” which the Trump operation claims is premature and an infraction of campaign finance law. Should the complaint before the Commission end in a three to three tie, with the three Republicans likely voting to affirm the complaint and the three Democrats against, the Trump campaign could then take the measure to court.

Democratic National Committee

Following through on predictions that the Democrats would nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as quickly as possible, DNC chairman Jaime Harrison announced that in fact the committee will schedule a virtual roll call vote in advance of the Democratic National Convention.

The voting period will occur over multiple days culminating with an August 7th deadline, or 12 days before the Democratic National Convention officially convenes in Chicago. At this point, it appears that Ms. Harris will easily secure the first ballot nomination and end speculation of another potential candidate arriving to claim support from a delegate majority.

The early vote allows the Democratic leadership to avoid an open convention that could bring chaos, gives the Harris campaign an additional two weeks of general election campaigning, and allows them to make the convention a unifying event.

National Polls

From July 21-24, eight political pollsters conducted national ballot tests of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The surveys produced mixed results. All were conducted online and came from Activote, YouGov, Ipsos, RMG Research, Big Village, Change Research, Morning Consult, and the New York Times/Siena College. The range was from Harris +4 to Trump +3. Of the nine polls (YouGov ran two), Trump was ahead in five results and Harris four.

U.S. Senate

Arizona

Countering the last three July polls that found the Arizona Senate race tightening to within the polling margin of error, Public Policy Polling released new data (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; 7/19-20; 736 AZ registered voters; live interview & text) that posts US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to a seven point advantage, 49-42%, over former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.

In the Presidential race, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris, 46-40%, again finding the familiar pattern of the Republican Senate nominee dropping behind the GOP ticket leader. In terms of approval rating, Mr. Trump scored a 47:49% favorability index. This compares well opposite Ms. Harris’ poor 38:55% positive to negative ratio.

Michigan

Underdog Michigan US Senate candidate Sandy Pensler (R) announced that he is abandoning his own campaign and will instead endorse former Congressman Mike Rogers* (R) for the GOP nomination to oppose US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). The Congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

A pair of polls were also released of the general election yielding considerably different results. While both find Rep. Slotkin leading, EPIC-MRA, the most prolific Michigan pollster (for the Detroit Free Press; 7/13-17; 600 MI registered voters), sees the Congresswoman posting a three point lead over Mr. Rogers, 43-40%.

Public Policy Polling, however, sees a more substantial Slotkin advantage. Their survey (7/17-18; 650 MI registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts a 46-38% result. Of the many polls taken of this race, the EPIC-MRA result is more consistent with the preponderance of other surveys.

Nevada

British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (polling for The Telegraph publication; 7/16-18; 412 NV likely voters; part of a 5,005 sampling universe covering Nevada and seven other states) tested the Nevada Senate race and sees a tighter result than most recent polls. The ballot test found Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading Afghan War veteran Sam Brown* (R), 41-37%. Recently, after a barrage of Rosen advertising, the Senator had been posting leads as high as eight and 12 points.

New Jersey

After indicating that he would resign from the Senate after being found guilty of bribery but not providing any specifics, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) announced late this week that he will leave the Senate on August 20.

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) immediately indicated that he will appoint a replacement for the outgoing Senator to serve the balance of the term. It is unlikely that he will appoint Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) who won the Democratic nomination after Menendez decided not to seek renomination and Gov. Murphy’s wife, Tammy Murphy, withdrew from the Senate race.

Sen. Menendez then filed as an Independent for the Senate, but that was a move largely to qualify to legally spend his campaign money on legal fees. As a non-candidate, he could not have used the funds for such an expenditure. It is now likely he will also withdraw his Independent candidacy. Rep. Kim is favored to defeat Republican businessman Curtis Bashaw in the November general election.

Pennsylvania

Three pollsters surveyed the Keystone State electorate, and all show Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R) beyond the polling margin of error. The most recent, from SoCal Research for the OnPoint political blog (7/20-21; 500 PA likely voters; online), finds Sen. Casey posting a ten point lead over Mr. McCormick, 50-40%, even while the same sample detects former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 50-46%.

Public Policy Polling, surveying for the liberal Clean and Prosperous American PAC (7/17-18; 624 PA registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), found an almost identical result with Sen. Casey ahead 11 points, 50-39%.

Finally, British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (for The Telegraph publication; 7/16-18; 688 PA likely voters; online, part of a seven-state polling track of 5,005 respondents) added the three minor party candidates to their ballot test and projects that Sen. Casey would lead Mr. McCormick 44-37% with the other candidates attracting a cumulative three percentage points.

U.S. House of Representatives

NE-2

A Torchlight Strategies poll (7/8-11; 300 NE-2 likely voters) sees four-term US Rep. Don Bacon* (R-Papillion/Omaha) topping state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) 46-43% in his bid for a fifth term. NE-2 is a swing congressional district and one that carries its own electoral vote in the presidential election. Because it can vote opposite of the state total, the district is one of two seats in the country – ME-2 being the other – that could cause a tie in the Electoral College.

Both Maine and Nebraska employ a system where the presidential candidate is awarded two electoral votes for winning the statewide count and one each for the congressional districts that they carry.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NE-2 as R+3, which is different than the 2020 configuration that gave Joe Biden a 22,000+ vote win over then-President Donald Trump. The previous rating was Even. In 2022, Rep. Bacon defeated Sen. Vargas, 51-49%, and another tight race between the two men is forecast for November.

NM-2

After New Mexico’s southern 2nd Congressional District was converted into a Democratic seat in the 2021 redistricting map from one that favored Republicans, then-Rep. Yvette Herrell* (R) lost her seat in 2022 to then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) by a scant 50.3 – 49.7% margin.

A new poll suggests we will likely see a similarly close result in 2024. The Tarrance Group, polling for the Herrell campaign (7/11-14; 400 NM-2 likely voters; live interview) finds the former Congresswoman clutching to a 48-46% edge over Rep. Vasquez. At this point, it is unclear which candidate wins the seat, but every available data point is again suggesting that this race will be extremely tight.

TX-18

Late last week, 15-term Texas Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) passed away. Weeks before she announced that she was fighting pancreatic cancer, a disease that she could not overcome. Rep. Jackson Lee was 74 years of age, and the third member of the House to pass away during this Congress. The other two were Reps. Donald McEachin (D-VA) and Donald Payne, Jr. (D-NJ).

Texas’ 18th District is heavily Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as D+43. The Daily Kos Elections site statisticians rank the seat as the 46th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference.

The local Harris County Democratic Party committee will choose a nominee to replace Ms. Jackson Lee on the November ballot by August 26th. It is unclear at this writing whether Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will call a special election for an individual to serve the balance of the current term.

Potential Democratic candidates include former Houston Mayor and ex-state Representative Sylvester Turner, at-large Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer, and former US Senate and congressional candidate Amanda Edwards.

VA-5

Soon after state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) was certified the Republican primary winner by a 374 vote margin, defeated Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) announced he would finance a recount. The election authorities have now said that they won’t begin the recount until August 1st, and that Mr. Good would be charged $97,000 for the process. Should the recount turn the election in Mr. Good’s favor, however, he would not be charged. The chances of an overturn remain slim.

House Democrats

Six Democrats broke party ranks to support a House Republican resolution criticizing Vice President Harris’ role in securing the border. Not surprisingly, the six are all in competitive House districts, and among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents seeking re-election. They are: Reps. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO-8), Henry Cuellar* (D-TX-28), Don Davis (D-NC-1), Jared Golden (D-ME-2), Mary Peltola (D-AK-AL), and Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-WA-3).