More primaries are underway, and we saw the Alaska, Florida, Wyoming electorates choosing their general election competitors earlier this week.

Alaska

As expected, at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished first in the top four Alaska jungle primary, but the unanswered question was whether businessman Nick Begich, III or Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, the choice of the Republican establishment and former President Donald Trump, would become her prime competitor. While Rep. Peltola is knocking on the door of the majority support threshold as ballots continue to be counted, it was Mr. Begich who secured second place while Ms. Dahlstrom finished almost seven points behind him and 30 points behind the Congresswoman.

Before the election, Mr. Begich said he would withdraw from the general election if he finished behind Ms. Dahlstrom, but the latter made no such commitment. Now advancing to the general election, it is highly possible that once again because of the Ranked Choice Voting system to take effect if none of the candidates receive 50% in November, that Rep. Peltola will again prevail.

The next few days of jockeying will be interesting. The Republicans will have their best chance of unseating Rep. Peltola if they unite behind one candidate, and it appears their only choice will be Mr. Begich. If they remain divided among two major GOP contenders, then the outcome will be the same as we’ve seen before, that is Rep. Peltola will continue representing the most Republican congressional district in the country that elects a Democrat to the House. 

Florida

The Florida primary unfolded as expected. Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) were easy winners in their respective primaries. Sen. Scott posted over 84% in the Republican primary, while Ms. Mucarsel-Powell captured just over 2/3 of the Democratic vote.

The main difference in the two primaries, however, was turnout. Sen. Scott alone, with over 1.28 million votes, exceeded the entire Democratic participation factor by over 194,000 votes. Sen. Scott and Ms. Mucarsel-Powell will now advance to the general election where the incumbent is favored in a state where the Republican registered voter factor exceeds its Democratic counterparts by more than 1 million individuals.

In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) was again an easy winner, exceeding 72% of the vote over Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock who moved into the district to challenge the Congressman. Mr. Gaetz will now advance into the general election where he becomes a prohibitive favorite in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+38.

In the Atlantic coastal 8th District, as expected, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos topped 72% of the vote to claim the Republican nomination. He will replace retiring Congressman Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) who announced that he would not seek re-election just before the candidate filing deadline expired. Mr. Haridopolos now becomes a sure winner in the general election.

In a St. Petersburg anchored congressional district that can become competitive, marketing consultant Whitney Fox, as expected, easily won the Democratic primary and advances into the general election to oppose freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg). The Congresswoman is favored, but the district electorate is relatively close. The Republican general election vote is likely to land in the low to mid-50s.

Rep. Laurel Lee* (R-Tampa), who former President Donald Trump targeted for defeat before he decided to endorse her when no major GOP competition emerged, also topped 72% in last night’s GOP primary. Hillsborough County Commissioner Patricia Kemp, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary, will now become Rep. Lee’s November opponent. Since Ms. Kemp has underperformed on the fundraising circuit, Rep. Lee is viewed as a clear November favorite in central Florida’s most competitive seat.

Veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan* (R-Sarasota) faced a credible Republican primary opponent, but the Congressman easily prevailed with 61% voter preference. The primary should prove to be Rep. Buchanan’s most formidable challenge in a 16th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+13.

In South Florida, we saw a minor upset as Miami-Dade County School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller defeated former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey with a 54% vote total. She now will face two-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar* (R-Miami) in what appears to be a dead even district on paper demographically, but with an electorate that tends to vote more conservatively.

Wyoming

As predicted, Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso* (R) and at-large US Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) were easily renominated with landslide Republican primary victories last night. Sen. Barrasso’s 68% victory at this writing and Rep. Hageman scoring 81% of the primary vote will send both office holders to the general election in what promises to be Donald Trump’s strongest state in the country.