A total of 27 states have completed their redistricting process and, at this point, it appears that the new district boundaries yield 89 competitive US House races, 36 of those in a respective party or jungle primary.
Three of the six at-large states also feature competitive campaigns (Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming). Two of the three are primary contests.
Early reports of this redistricting cycle reducing the number of competitive 2022 campaigns contain a narrow definition of competitive, does not factor nomination battles or jungle primaries, and misjudged that states with citizens’ redistricting commissions have a clear bias toward creating contested seats.
Below is a chart of the 27 states where redistricting is complete, listing the potentially competitive races. If a member is not listed, his or her new district is rated as safe. Of the remaining 17, three big states have not yet drawn final districts: Florida, Pennsylvania, and New York. Therefore, a total of 152 CDs remain to be drawn in the uncompleted states.
|
STATE |
DIST |
INCUMBENT |
TYPE |
RATING |
|
Alabama |
5 |
Mo Brooks |
Open Seat |
Safe R |
|
Arizona |
1 |
David Schweikert |
General |
Toss-Up |
|
2 |
Tom O'Halleran |
General |
Lean R |
|
|
4 |
Greg Stanton* |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
6 |
Ann Kirkpatrick |
Open Seat |
Toss-Up |
|
|
9 |
Paul Gosar |
R Primary |
Safe R |
|
|
Arkansas |
None |
|||
|
California |
3 |
Created |
Open Seat |
Lean R |
|
5 |
Tom McClintock |
Jungle Primary |
Safe R |
|
|
6 |
Ami Bera |
General |
Likely D |
|
|
8 |
John Garamendi |
Jungle Primary |
Safe D |
|
|
13 |
Josh Harder |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
15 |
Jackie Speier |
Open Seat |
Safe D |
|
|
22 |
David Valadao* |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
27 |
Mike Garcia* |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
34 |
Jimmy Gomez |
Jungle Primary |
Safe D |
|
|
37 |
Karen Bass |
Open Seat |
Safe D |
|
|
40 |
Young Kim* |
General |
Lean R |
|
|
41 |
Ken Calvert |
General |
Lean R |
|
|
42 |
Alan Lowenthal |
Open Seat |
Safe D |
|
|
45 |
Michelle Steel* |
General |
Lean R |
|
|
47 |
Katie Porter |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
49 |
Mike Levin |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
Colorado |
7 |
Ed Perlmutter |
General |
Lean D |
|
8 |
New Seat |
General |
Toss-Up |
|
|
Georgia |
2 |
Sanford Bishop |
General |
Lean D |
|
6 |
Created |
Open Seat |
Safe R |
|
|
7 |
Carolyn Bourdeaux |
Pairing |
Safe D |
|
|
Lucy McBath |
||||
|
10 |
Jody Hice |
Open Seat |
Safe R |
|
|
13 |
David Scott* |
D Primary |
Safe D |
|
|
14 |
Marjorie T. Greene |
R Primary |
Safe R |
|
|
Idaho |
None |
|||
|
Illinois |
1 |
Bobby Rush |
Open Seat |
Safe D |
|
3 |
Created |
Open Seat |
Safe D |
|
|
6 |
Sean Casten |
Pairing |
Safe D |
|
|
Marie Newman |
||||
|
13 |
Created |
Open Seat |
Likely D |
|
|
15 |
Mary Miller |
Pairing |
Safe R |
|
|
Rodney Davis* |
||||
|
17 |
Cheri Bustos |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
Indiana |
None |
|||
|
Iowa |
1 |
M. Miller-Meeks* |
General |
Toss-Up |
|
2 |
Ashley Hinson* |
General |
Lean R |
|
|
3 |
Cindy Axne |
General |
Toss-Up |
|
|
Maine |
2 |
Jared Golden |
General |
Toss-Up |
|
Maryland |
1 |
Andy Harris |
General |
Lean R |
|
Massachusetts |
4 |
Jake Auchinloss |
D Primary |
Safe D |
|
Michigan |
3 |
Peter Meijer* |
General |
Toss-Up |
|
4 |
Bill Huizenga |
Pairing |
Likely R |
|
|
Fred Upton* |
||||
|
7 |
Elissa Slotkin |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
8 |
Dan Kildee |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
10 |
Created |
General |
Lean R |
|
|
11 |
Haley Stevens |
Pairing |
Safe D |
|
|
Andy Levin |
||||
|
12 |
Rashida Tlaib |
D Primary |
Safe D |
|
|
13 |
Created |
Open Seat |
Safe D |
|
|
Montana |
1 |
New Seat |
Open Seat |
Lean R |
|
Nebraska |
2 |
Don Bacon* |
General |
Lean R |
|
Nevada |
1 |
Dina Titus |
General |
Lean D |
|
3 |
Susie Lee |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
4 |
Steven Horsford* |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
New Jersey |
7 |
Tom Malinowski |
General |
Toss-Up |
|
New Mexico |
2 |
Yvette Herrell* |
General |
Lean D |
|
3 |
Teresa L. Fernandez |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
North Carolina |
2 |
G.K. Butterfield |
Open Seat |
Lean D |
|
4 |
Created |
Open Seat |
Lean R |
|
|
6 |
David Price |
Open Seat |
Safe D |
|
|
7 |
Ted Budd |
Open Seat |
Safe R |
|
|
11 |
Virginia Foxx* |
Pairing |
Likely R |
|
|
Kathy Manning |
||||
|
13 |
Madison Cawthorn |
R Primary |
Likely R |
|
|
14 |
New Seat |
General |
Lean R |
|
|
Ohio |
1 |
Steve Chabot |
General |
Toss-Up |
|
9 |
Marcy Kaptur |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
13 |
Tim Ryan |
Open Seat |
Toss-Up |
|
|
Oklahoma |
None |
|||
|
Oregon |
4 |
Peter DeFazio* |
Open Seat |
Likely D |
|
5 |
Kurt Schrader* |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
6 |
New Seat |
General |
Likely D |
|
|
Texas |
1 |
Louie Gohmert |
Open Seat |
Safe R |
|
3 |
Van Taylor* |
R Primary |
Likely R |
|
|
8 |
Kevin Brady |
Open Seat |
Likely R |
|
|
15 |
Filemon Vela |
Open Seat |
Toss-Up |
|
|
21 |
Chip Roy* |
General |
Likely R |
|
|
23 |
Tony Gonzales* |
General |
Lean R |
|
|
27 |
Michael Cloud |
R Primary |
Safe R |
|
|
28 |
Henry Cuellar* |
D Primary |
Likely D |
|
|
30 |
Eddie B. Johnson |
Open Seat |
Safe D |
|
|
35 |
New Seat |
D Primary |
Safe D |
|
|
38 |
New Seat |
R Primary |
Safe R |
|
|
Utah |
None |
|||
|
Virginia |
2 |
Elaine Luria |
General |
Toss-Up |
|
7 |
Abigail Spanberger |
General |
Lean D |
|
|
West Virginia |
2 |
Alex Mooney |
Pairing |
Safe R |
|
David McKinley* |
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