Yesterday, New York US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) stated in an interview with CNN that, “If we are going on a political suicide mission, then we should at least be honest about it,” and then released a list of House and Senate Democrats who have made statements about whether President Joe Biden should remain in the race or step aside.
His spreadsheet contained the names of Democratic members who have made public statements about President Biden’s campaign status and were categorized. A total of 71 Senators and Representatives have made statements, according to Rep. Torres’ calculations, indicating they fully support the President maintaining his bid for re-election. Another 38 have either called for him to withdraw or are questioning whether he should.
The list was specific with five members saying they are “undecided or unclear” about whether the President should continue, seven calling for him to “step aside,” eight more indicating they are “troubled or concerned,” a category that includes Mr. Torres, himself, 13 that need further “reassurance, or need to see more,” and five that have publicly stated that Mr. Biden “can’t win.”
The latter category is interesting in that it contains some of the Democrats in the toughest political situations including, Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and House members Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-WA) and Jared Golden (D-ME). The final member of this group, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), is not on the ballot this year.
The list is surprising in that so many Democratic members are publicly making statements that they are, or are at least considering, urging their own party’s leader to step aside so close to the election. A point President Biden made in last night’s news conference is correct, in that the polling data is yet to reflect these specific congressional members, and other Democratic leaders’, concerns.
Since Tuesday, four national polls have been released and all three basically show the race within the polling margin of error, exactly where it has been for months.
The ABC/Washington Post survey (conducted by Ipsos; 7/5-9; 2,041 US registered voters; online) posted a dead heat tie with both former President Donald Trump and Mr. Biden drawing 43% of the vote. In the multiple candidate depiction, Trump only leads by a single percentage point. Testing Vice President Kamala Harris against Mr. Trump, she would hold only a two point edge.
YouGov, polling for The Economist publication (7/7-9; 1,443 US registered voters; online), posts a 43-40% Trump leads with the Independent and minor party candidates included, while the former President leads Vice President Harris by four points.
SoCal Research (7/6-11; 1,000 US adults) actually posts President Biden to a lead over Mr. Trump in a head-to-head pairing. According to this data, the Biden advantage is 47-44%.
The Emerson College data (7/7-8; 1,370 US registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) tested Mr. Trump against a wide range of Democrats and finds that none fare as well as President Biden.
While showing Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden by four percentage points, the former President fares better from point ranges of six to ten points against Vice President Harris (+6), Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (+10), Govs. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and Josh Shapiro (D-PA) (+8), Hillary Clinton (+7), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (+6), and former Vice President Al Gore (+5).
Therefore, though many congressional members, liberal pundits, and party leaders are making the argument that the President should step aside, the vast amount of polling data still suggests that the incumbent is the Democrats’ current best hope of defeating former President Trump.
While the President’s debate performance was poor and ignited the calls for him to withdraw, it appears that the hysteria surrounding that event, kept alive daily in the media, has stretched well beyond what the actual numbers show. Therefore, the prolonged reaction is what has made this situation so much worse for President Biden and possibly Democratic chances of holding the White House, and not necessarily the incumbent’s public performance.
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