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US Senate: Early Voting Recap

The Target Smart statistical website has tracked the national early voting process throughout the country and reports segmentation by state. Nationally, through yesterday’s report, they log over 55.58 million people already voting, an increase of 108% from the same period when compared to the last presidential election in 2016. If national voter turnout projections of more than 150 million people prove correct, then approximately 37% of 2020 voters have already cast their ballots.

Though the first couple of days in early voting greatly favored Democrats, the last few have yielded a Republican increase.

In the 15 most competitive Senate states (Georgia has two races), 12 of which have an early voting process in both 2020 and 2016, while one is added for this year (Kentucky), we see a greater turnout from Democrats in seven of them (Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina), while more Republicans are voting in six (Alaska, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Texas).

Interestingly, in gauging which political entities are gaining the most in early voting percentage today when comparing 2020 with 2016, the Democrats, Republicans, and Unaffiliateds all break evenly with an advantage in four states apiece: Democrats (Alaska, Arizona, Kansas, Michigan); Republicans (Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, Texas); Unaffiliateds (Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota).

It is difficult to say how these numbers will affect the final results. The states possibly producing the most significant early turnout results could be Arizona and Texas. In Arizona, Democrats lead for the first time in early voting aggregate ballots returned, while despite supposition to the contrary, Texas Republicans not only lead in 2020 as they have in the past, but also have gained more in percentage returned when compared to 2016. 

Other stats of note: though behind in 2020 aggregate voting, Democrats have seen an increase in their standing from 2016 in Alaska and Kansas. Republicans, on the other hand, also while trailing on the aggregate count have improved their position more than Democrats when compared to 2016 in Colorado and North Carolina.

Alabama

No Early Voting

Alaska

2020 Total Early Votes: 77,128

  • Democratic: 36.0%
  • Republican: 46.1%
  • Unaffiliated: 17.9%

2016 Total Early Votes: 19,296

  • Democratic: 26.3%
  • Republican: 57.4%
  • Unaffiliated: 16.3%

Current Advantage: Republican

Gaining Most from 2016: Democratic

Arizona

2020 Total Early Votes: 1,478,626

  • Democratic: 49.2%
  • Republican: 44.8%
  • Unaffiliated: 6.0%

2016 Total Early Votes: 1,129,122

  • Democratic: 42.9%
  • Republican: 48.4%
  • Unaffiliated: 8.7%

Current Advantage: Democratic

Gaining Most from 2016: Democratic

Colorado

2020 Total Early Votes: 1,607,475

  • Democratic: 50.8%
  • Republican: 40.0%
  • Unaffiliated: 9.1%

2016 Total Early Votes: 890,120

  • Democratic: 51.0%
  • Republican: 40.8%
  • Unaffiliated: 8.2%

Current Advantage: Democratic

Gaining Most from 2016: Republican

Georgia

2020 Total Early Votes: 2,668,238

  • Democratic: 44.0%
  • Republican: 49.2%
  • Unaffiliated: 6.8%

2016 Total Early Votes: 1,532,728

  • Democratic: 42.1%
  • Republican: 52.9%
  • Unaffiliated: 5.0%

Current Advantage: Republican

Gaining Most from 2016: Unaffiliated

Iowa

2020 Total Early Votes: 717,118

  • Democratic: 48.8%
  • Republican: 40.1%
  • Unaffiliated: 11.0%

2016 Total Early Votes: 424,474

  • Democratic: 53.3%
  • Republican: 39.8%
  • Unaffiliated: 6.8%

Current Advantage: Democratic

Gaining Most from 2016: Unaffiliated

Kansas

2020 Total Early Votes: 290,920

  • Democratic: 45.0%
  • Republican: 47.4%
  • Unaffiliated: 7.6%

2016 Total Early Votes: 152,642

  • Democratic: 38.5%
  • Republican: 54.6%
  • Unaffiliated: 6.8%

Current Advantage: Republican

Gaining Most from 2016: Democratic

Kentucky

2020 Total Early Votes: 818,302

  • Democratic: 38.2%
  • Republican: 51.0%
  • Unaffiliated: 10.8%

2016 Total Early Votes: No Early Voting

  • No Previous Early Voting

Current Advantage: Republican

Maine

2020 Total Early Votes: 340,329

  • Democratic: 58.8%
  • Republican: 30.0%
  • Unaffiliated: 11.2%

2016 Total Early Votes: 134,978

  • Democratic: 60.7%
  • Republican: 30.9%
  • Unaffiliated: 8.4%

Current Advantage: Democratic

Gaining Most from 2016: Unaffiliated

 Michigan

2020 Total Early Votes: 2,021,807

  • Democratic: 42.9%
  • Republican: 38.0%
  • Unaffiliated: 19.0%

2016 Total Early Votes: 806,217

  • Democratic: 38.3%
  • Republican: 36.0%
  • Unaffiliated: 25.6%

Current Advantage: Democratic

Gaining Most from 2016: Democratic

Minnesota

2020 Total Early Votes: 1,212,273

  • Democratic: 47.3%
  • Republican: 30.0%
  • Unaffiliated: 22.6%

2016 Total Early Votes: 292,450

  • Democratic: 51.2%
  •  Republican: 34.7%
  • Unaffiliated: 14.1%

Current Advantage: Democratic

Gaining Most from 2016: Unaffiliated

Montana

2020 Total Early Votes: 359,027

  • Democratic: 29.9%
  • Republican: 45.4%
  • Unaffiliated: 24.7%

2016 Total Early Votes: 181,306

  • Democratic: 36.6%
  • Republican: 36.0%
  • Unaffiliated: 27.4%

Current Advantage: Republican

Gaining Most from 2016: Republican

North Carolina

2020 Total Early Votes: 3,058,579

  • Democratic: 49.7%
  • Republican: 44.0%
  • Unaffiliated: 6.2%

2016 Total Early Votes: 1,870,414

  • Democratic: 54.2%
  • Republican: 41.7%
  • Unaffiliated: 4.1%

Current Advantage: Democratic

Gaining Most from 2016: Republican

South Carolina

  • No Early Voting

Texas

2020 Total Early Votes: 6,984,081

  • Democratic: 38.5%
  • Republican: 51.9%
  • Unaffiliated: 9.3%

2016 Total Early Votes: 3,049,348

  • Democratic: 41.6%
  • Republican: 50.6%
  • Unaffiliated: 7.8%

Current Advantage: Democratic

Gaining Most from 2016: Republican


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