With early voting churning forward and the election just under a week away, several Senate races previously thought to be heading the way of the Democratic incumbent are now very much in play.

To recap, the current Senate majority favors the Democrats in a tight 51-49 margin. With the West Virginia seat assuredly going to Gov. Jim Justice* (R), the electoral majority is effectively tied at 50-50. Republicans, in the person of retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy*, are well positioned to unseat three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) and claim an outright majority. 

The latest Montana survey comes from Emerson College (10/23-25; 1,000 MT likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while the ballot test finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris 58-39%, the Senate race, at 50-46% and 51-48% when leaners to one candidate or the other are added, is tighter than in other recent polls. In any event, Tester remains behind as he has been in seven consecutive published polls with an average spread of just under seven percentage points.

We now turn our attention to the mid-Atlantic region where three Democratic incumbent races are teetering and have now moved into the toss-up category. Recent Republican momentum in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin has erased the leads that Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey, Jr., and Tammy Baldwin have posted for virtually the entire election cycle.

In Ohio, the most recent poll comes from the OnMessage polling firm (10/19-22; 600 OH likely voters; live interview & text). The ballot test finds challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Brown, 49-47%. In early voting, the ballot count so far represents 43% of the 2020 total but has already exceeded 2022’s total EV raw count. 

Both parties, according to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart statisticians, are up in early vote participation when compared to 2020. Democrats are a point and one-half stronger in relation to 2020, but almost six points behind their 2022 total. Republicans are two points ahead of their 2020 performance and a whopping 15 points better than ’22. The Republicans are 119,377 ballots ahead of the current Democratic turnout. In 2020, 167,155 more Ohio Republicans voted early than Democrats. In 2022, however, Democrats posted 182,260 more early votes than Republicans.

In Pennsylvania, the last four polls find Sen. Casey leading Republican David McCormick by one point in three of the polls and tied in the other. Previously in October, ten polls had been released. Sen. Casey led in all and by an average of just under five percentage points.

Pennsylvania early voting heavily favors the Democrats in raw numbers as it did in 2020 and 2022. Still, Republicans are up over their previous performance by three points when compared to 2020 and nine points when looking at 2022. Democrats are also up two based upon their 2020 early vote performance but down 8.5 percentage points when comparing the current turnout percentage to the party’s 2022 numbers. 

The Wisconsin ballot test numbers are dropping similarly for Sen. Baldwin. In the most recent five polls from five different pollsters, Sen. Baldwin led by one, trailed Republican Eric Hovde by one, led by one, was tied, and led by one. In the previous ten October surveys, Sen. Baldwin led in all and her average edge was just over 3.5 percentage points.

In terms of Wisconsin early voting, again according to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart data organization, Democrats are at parity with their 2020 and 2022 early voting turnout figures, but Republicans are way down, 21 points when compared to 2020 and 12 points from the 2022 benchmark. Still, while the early vote favors the Democrats, the consistent recent polling suggests this Senate race is now in play.

A new poll from Nevada is a surprise but may signal the beginning of sustained movement. Since June began, 26 polls have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race and incumbent Jacky Rosen (D) has led in all with an average eight percentage point edge. A new OnMessage survey, however, tells a different story. This poll (10/19-22; 600 NV likely voters; text to web; part of a three state study) sees Republican challenger Sam Brown* pulling into a tie with Sen. Rosen at 48-48%. 

This OnMessage poll could be an outlier or is possibly detecting the onset of a Republican surge. So far, and for the first time since 2020 early voting, more Republicans have cast their ballots than Democrats. In fact, 25,646 more Republicans than Democrats have voted early this year. As a point of reference, the presidential ballot test also showed former President Trump leading, 50-46% suggesting a more favorable Republican turnout model.

The Michigan Senate race has polled close for most of the year, and almost all of the ballot tests favor Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) over ex-Rep. Mike Rogers* (R). In the last seven released surveys, Rep. Slotkin has led in six and by an average of five points. 

At this point, Wolverine State Democrats are up 11 points over the 2020 early vote performance and are at parity with 2022. Republicans are at parity with 2020 and up 11 points over their ’22 numbers. The Democratic raw number lead in early voting is 195,332. At the end of the 2020 cycle, the Democratic advantage was 59,692, so the GOP is significantly behind their early voting pace of four years ago.

In Florida, Sen. Rick Scott six years ago unseated veteran Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson by just 10,033 votes from almost 8.2 million ballots cast.

Though former one-term US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) has run relatively close to Sen. Scott in 2024 polling, the state has greatly changed since both last appeared on a ballot.

When Scott defeated Nelson in 2018, the state featured 257,000+ more registered Democrats than Republicans. Today, there are more than 1 million more registered Republicans than Democrats. Therefore, the electorate is very different than it was six years ago, and the change is all in Scott’s favor.

Early voting looks good for Florida Republicans, too. GOP participation is up in comparison to both 2020 and 2022. Conversely, Democrats are down between five and six percentage points in reference to both years. Additionally, the rural vote is up, urban ballot casting is down, and suburban voting is on par with previous performance.

Turning to Nebraska, two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer* is embroiled in the most surprising race of the election cycle. Even though the Senator does not have a Democratic opponent, she finds herself locked in a bitter contest against Independent Dan Osborn.

Though Mr. Osborn is not a party nominee, the Democrats are coalescing behind him and the party donors are largely responsible for his strong fundraising. Since its inception, the Osborn campaign has raised over $8 million for the small state campaign.

Polls are erratic and while both former President Trump and Sen. Pete Ricketts* (R), the latter of whom must run to fill the unexpired portion of his appointed term, are running nearly 20 points ahead, Sen. Fischer has been tied in several ballot tests, and running a little ahead, and a little behind in others.

In statewide early voting, both parties are at parity with where they have been in previous elections. The 2nd District, which is important in the presidential election because Nebraska allows its congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote, is trending Democratic in polling. 

The 2nd District early vote, however, shows the Republicans edging up a point over their 2020 performance, while the Democrats are at parity. Breaking close to even in the 2nd District will be key to Sen. Fischer assuming and then expanding a lead in the other part of the state in order to put the race away.

The Texas race has attracted a great deal of political media attention and polling consistently shows a close contest. While both Sen. Ted Cruz* (R) and Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) have together raised just under $175 million, split virtually evenly, the task to unseat the incumbent is still major for the challenging three-term Congressman.

The Texas early voting numbers look strongly Republican. The GOP voters are turning out approximately three points stronger than they did in 2020, while the Democrats are down two points while the unaffiliated voters are down one point. On the raw vote count, with four days remaining in the early process, the total early voter turnout is just over 51% of the 2020 entire Texas EV total. So far this year, 772,000+ more Republicans than Democrats are estimated to have cast their ballot.

While Rep. Allred has proven himself an able candidate, 2024 is not likely the year that Democrats reverse their 30-year losing streak in Texas statewide races. 

Former President Trump is again well positioned to carry the state. The Biden energy policies have had a negative effect upon the Texas dominant oil and gas industry, and a large majority of the voting public has regarded the Administration’s border policies poorly. Therefore, seeing Mr. Allred prevail in such a Lone Star State political climate is highly unlikely, but he will run ahead of most other Democratic candidates who have tried to win a Texas statewide political position.

Though all three of these Senate challenge races are viable, expect the Republican incumbents all to prevail. Should any of the three ultimately lose, then GOP chances of wresting the Senate majority away from the Democrats could fall by the wayside.

Looking at the major Senate races, it appears likely that Republicans will secure at least a 51-49 majority by winning West Virginia and Montana and securing all 11 of the in-cycle seats. Ohio could then become the Republicans’ 52nd seat, thus making their quest for a sustained majority more realistic.