Two Hidden Races

A pair of campaigns that have not attracted much political attention could come into play according to the most recent information.

Nationally, it appears the House majority could come down to one or two seats, so every race becomes important. Therefore, even contests that were expected to be non-competitive could be the campaigns that tip the majority to one party or the other.

Two such matches are coming to the forefront in Nevada and Texas. Both contests are in districts rated heavily for the incumbent party, but showing potential flip signs. With the majority margins so close, every campaign’s importance factor increases.

Similar to Sen. Deb Fischer*’s Nebraska re-election situation, Nevada US Rep. Mark Amodei* (R-Carson City) faces a strong Independent opponent and no Democrat. Greg Kidd is a registered Republican who qualified by petition signature to run in this expansive northern Nevada congressional race as an Independent. Mr. Kidd is a venture capitalist and former analyst for the Federal Reserve and has committed $3 million of his own money to his campaign.

There has been no recent polling released for this race, so it is difficult to tell if the ballot test is close. An expenditure the size of what Mr. Kidd is capable of making, however, can certainly move numbers, but Rep. Amodei has so far been virtually inactive on the airwaves. Considering Mr. Kidd’s personal financial resources and commitment to self-financing his political effort to a major degree, expect Rep. Amodei to immediately increase his campaign presence.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NV-2 as R+13, and the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 53.8R – 40.5D partisan lean. The Down Ballot data organization ranks NV-2 as the 59th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

While the data suggests the 2nd is a safe Republican seat, the metrics are measured from a Democratic vs. Republican perspective. In this case we see a strong Independent candidate who is a registered Republican but campaigning on abortion rights and pro-prosperity economics. Such could well change the paradigm here and make this a more competitive race than the traditional predictive data would suggest.

In south Texas, we see a rematch from the 2022 campaign where Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and then-US Rep. Mayra Flores (R-McAllen) squared off in an incumbent vs. incumbent post-redistricting pairing. Ms. Flores had won a special election in June of 2022 in the 2011 version of CD 34, which stretched along the Gulf of Mexico from Brownsville in the district’s southernmost point then to the north around the Corpus Christi area, and all the way to the outer Austin suburbs. That version of District 34 was rated D+5 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization.

The 2022 34th District is much different, as it starts just south of Corpus Christi, and stretches to Brownsville, and then west along the Mexican border into the city of McAllen. The new version carries a D+17 rating and is obviously much more Democratic than the configuration that elected Ms. Flores. Yet, we see new competitive signs.

Despite her losing in 2022 by a 53-44% count, a new poll from the 1892 firm for the National Republican Congressional Committee (9-28/10-1; 400 TX-34 likely voters; live interview) finds Ms. Flores trailing Rep. Gonzalez by just a 49-46% margin. This is largely an under-the-radar race that has drawn little national attention but may be moving up the conversion priority chart.

The poll is another indication that the Republicans are doing better with the Hispanic population. This district is 88% Hispanic and former President Donald Trump, in this same 1892 study, leads Vice President Kamala Harris 49-47% despite the seat being drawn to elect a Democrat.

Both NV-2 and TX-34 should receive renewed national interest. Watch for other seemingly safe districts for one party or the other similarly come into play.


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