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US Senate: A Polling Comparison

Today, we look at the competitive Senate races and segment the group around polling consistency. Several races routinely report point spreads between the two major party candidates that are wildly inconsistent, while others vary over a small difference often within the same polling period.

The two most extreme surveys during the month are listed for each state with the most extreme first and the closest second. You will notice that the British firm, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, is often listed as the most extreme.

We begin, alphabetically by state, with the inconsistent group. Only the two Georgia races are in the September consistent segment.

Inconsistent Polling

Arizona: Sen. Martha McSally* (R) vs. Mark Kelly (D)

  • Number of September polls: 14
  • Polling range: 16 points

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (9/12-16; 855 AZ likely voters; combination online and live interview)

  • Kelly - 52%
  • McSally - 35%

ABC News/Washington Post (9/15-20; 579 AZ likely voters; live interview)

  • Kelly - 49%
  • McSally - 48%

Iowa: Sen. Joni Ernst* (R) vs. Theresa Greenfield (D)

  • Number of September polls: 2
  • Polling range: 8 points

Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research (8/30-9/5; 800 IA likely voters; live interview)

  • Ernst (R) - 50%
  • Greenfield (D) - 45%

Selzer & Company (9/14-17; 658 IA likely voters; live interview)

  • Greenfield (D) - 45%
  • Ernst (R) - 42%

Maine: Sen. Susan Collins* (R) vs. Sara Gideon (D)

  • Number of September polls: 5
  • Polling range: 11 points

Quinnipiac University (9/10-14; 1,183 ME likely voters; combination online and live interview)

  • Gideon - 54%
  • Collins - 42%

Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research (8/30-9/5; 800 ME likely voters; live interview)

  • Gideon - 44%
  • Collins - 43%

Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D) vs. John James*

  • Number of September polls: 11
  • Polling range: 15 points

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (9/12-14; 930 MI likely voters; combination online and live interview)

  • Peters - 51%
  • James - 35%

Tarrance Group (9/1-3; 569 MI likely voters; likely voters)

  • Sen. Gary Peters - 47%
  • John James - 46%

Minnesota: Sen. Tina Smith (D) vs. Rep. Jason Lewis (R)

  • Number of September polls: 5
  • Polling range: 8 points

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (9/12-17; 718 MN likely voters; combination online and live interview)

  • Smith - 51%
  • Lewis - 36%

YouGov (9/11-17; 1,031 MN likely voters; online)

  • Smith - 47%
  • Lewis - 40%

North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis* (R) vs. Cal Cunningham (D)

  • Number of September polls: 17
  • Polling range: 10 points

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (9/12-15; 1,052 NC likely voters; combination online and live interview)

  • Cunningham - 49%
  • Tillis - 38%

CNN/SSRS (9/9-13; 787 NC likely voters; online)

  • Cunningham - 47%
  • Tillis - 46%

Texas: Sen. John Cornyn* (R) vs. M.J. Hegar (D)

  • Number of September polls: 4
  • Polling range: 7 points

University of Texas at Tyler (8/28-9/2; 901 TX likely voters; live interview)

  • Cornyn - 39%
  • M.J. Hegar - 28%

Public Policy Polling (9/1-2; 743 TX voters; interactive voice response system)

  • Cornyn - 44%
  • M.J. Hegar - 40%

Consistent Polling

Georgia – A: Sen. David Perdue* vs. Jon Ossoff (D)

  • Number of September polls: 5
  • Polling range: 3 points

University of Georgia (9/11-20; 1,150 GA likely voters; live interview)

  • Perdue - 47%
  • Ossoff - 45%

Morning Consult (9/11-20; 1,406 GA likely voters; live interview)

  • Ossoff - 44%
  • Perdue - 43%

Georgia – B (Jungle Primary): Sen. Kelly Loeffler* (R) vs. several candidates

  • Number of September polls: 5
  • Polling range: 2 points

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (9/12-16; 800 GA likely voters; combination online and live interview)

  • Loeffler - 26%
  • Raphael Warnock - 21%
  • Rep. Doug Collins - 19%
  • Matt Lieberman - 15%

University of Georgia (9/11-20; 1,150 GA likely voters; live interview)

  • Loeffler - 24%
  • Collins - 21%
  • Warnock - 20%
  • Lieberman - 11%

Not Enough September Polling

  • Alaska
  • Colorado
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Mississippi
  • Montana
  • New Hampshire
  • New Mexico
  • South Carolina