Republicans secure White House, Senate, likely retain slim House majority, reshaping the U.S. political landscape.

Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, marking one of the most remarkable comebacks in American political history. Despite his loss in 2020, January 6, felony convictions, and surviving two assassination attempts, Trump’s victory sent a message that resonated worldwide.

Currently, Mr. Trump has secured 295 Electoral Votes to Vice President Harris’s 226, with his lead projected to increase to 312 once Arizona and Nevada complete their counts. If he claims both states, Mr. Trump will exceed his 2016 Electoral College total of 304 votes against Hillary Clinton. He is also on track to win the popular vote, a first for a Republican candidate in 20 years.

In the lead-up to the election, polling indicated a tight race, with momentum appearing to favor the vice president in the final days. However, exit polls suggested early signs of a shift:

• Women favored Vice President Harris, but by narrower margins than they did for Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden.
• Men supported Mr. Trump by higher margins than they did in 2016 and 2020.
• Young voters (under 29) backed Vice President Harris by just six points, a stark contrast to President Biden's 25-point advantage with this group in 2020.
• Latino men swung significantly toward Mr. Trump, voting for him by 10 points—a notable shift from Ms. Clinton’s and President Biden’s double-digit margins with this demographic. Latino women supported the vice president, but by significantly smaller margins than they did for Ms. Clinton or President Biden.
• The economy and democracy emerged as the top issues for voters. Among those who prioritized the economy, Mr. Trump held a decisive 61-point lead. Vice President Harris, on the other hand, won by 62 points among those who identified democracy as their primary concern. Interestingly, Mr. Trump also gained support from voters who saw U.S. democracy as “somewhat threatened” or “very threatened,” winning these groups by one and four points, respectively.

As returns began rolling in from key battleground states on the East Coast, the momentum Vice President Harris had counted on to secure the presidency gradually shifted toward Mr. Trump. First, North Carolina went to the former president, followed by Georgia, with the Peach State flipping back to the GOP column. Attention then turned to the Blue Wall states that Vice President Harris needed to hold to win. Michigan was the first to fall, followed closely by Pennsylvania, and then Wisconsin.

Mr. Trump’s victory marks a turning point in American politics, showcasing shifting voter alliances and underscoring the electorate's prioritization of economic concerns over other issues. Americans now wait to see how his administration will address the pressing issues facing the nation.

U.S. Senate

This past Tuesday, voters in 33 states cast ballots in U.S. Senate races, with control of the chamber at stake. Republicans, who were widely expected to gain control, secured a majority and are projected to hold at least 53 seats when the 119th Congress convenes on January 3, 2025.

Among the flipped seats were Montana, where businessman and veteran Tim Sheehy (R) unseated three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D); Ohio, where businessman Bernie Moreno (R) defeated three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D); Pennsylvania, where businessman Dave McCormick (R) defeated three-term Sen. Bob Casey (D); and West Virginia, where Gov. Jim Justice (R) won an open-seat race. Although there was some speculation that Florida, Nebraska, and Texas could be competitive, Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) easily fended off their challengers in the end.

Meanwhile, Democrats are on track to retain their seats in Arizona and Nevada. This would result in a 53-47 partisan breakdown in favor of Republicans.

AGC PAC, AGC of America’s political action committee, supported 14 candidates from both parties in this election. Eleven of its endorsed candidates won, while three were unsuccessful.

U.S. House of Representatives

Since House members serve two-year terms, all 435 seats were on the ballot this year. Leading into the election, Republicans held one of the slimmest majorities in U.S. history, with 221 seats to the Democrats’ 214. As Election Day neared, many analysts expected Democrats to gain control, needing only a net gain of four seats to reach a majority.

At present, it appears Republicans are positioned to keep their losses minimal and are favored to maintain their narrow majority. However, with several races still close — particularly in California — there remains a slim chance Democrats could gain the four seats required to reach the magic number of 218 seats for a majority.

So far, Republicans have secured 210 seats, while Democrats hold 197. Both parties flipped seats in key areas. Democrats regained three districts in New York that supported President Biden in 2020 and won an additional seat in Alabama after a court-mandated redistricting introduced a second “opportunity district.” Meanwhile, Republicans flipped three seats in North Carolina due to redistricting and gained two seats in Pennsylvania and one in Michigan.

AGC PAC supported candidates in 200 races this election, representing 45% of all House races. To date, 177 of its endorsed candidates have won, while only seven have lost, though these numbers are expected to shift as the remaining 16 races are called.

AGC Webinar - 2024 Election Results: What Construction Companies Should Expect to See Come Out of Washington

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