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Where the Senate Stands

Now, less than a month before the official Election Day, we see multiple polls coming regularly in almost every competitive Senate race. Democrats need a net conversion of three Republican seats if Joe Biden is elected President and four if he is not. With 16 races now on the competitive board, we look at where they each stand.

Looking at the current trends, we see a tightening Senate from the current 53R-47D majority. Under the current swing, Democrats could reach 51, but with several races remaining as toss-ups or in range where they still could go either way. It’s conceivable, at this point, that both parties could claim 49 seats with a fight for the remaining two that would decide the next majority.

All of the polling data listed below is from late September and early October.

Alabama

Candidates: Sen. Doug Jones (D) vs. Tommy Tuberville* (R)

Trend: Tuberville

Polls:

  • University of Auburn @ Montgomery (9/30-10/3; 1,072 AL registered voters)
    • Tommy Tuberville (R) - 54%
    • Sen. Doug Jones (D) - 42%
  • Morning Consult (9/11-20; 658 AL likely voters)
    • Tommy Tuberville (R) - 52%
    • Sen. Doug Jones (D) - 34%

Alaska

Candidates: Sen. Dan Sullivan* (R) vs. Dr. Al Gross (I/D)

Trend: Slightly Sullivan

Polls:

  • Alaska Survey Research (9/25-10/4; 676 AK likely voters)
    • Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) - 48%
    • Al Gross (I/D) - 44%
  • Harstad Strategic Research (9/20-23; 602 AK likely voters)
    • Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) - 46%
    • Al Gross (I/D) - 45%

Arizona

Candidates: Sen. Martha McSally* (R) vs. Mark Kelly (D)

Trend: Kelly

Polls:

  • Latino Decisions (9/28-10/6; 600 AZ likely voters)
    • Mark Kelly (D) - 47%
    • Sen. Martha McSally (R) - 42%
  • Ipsos (10/3-5; 550 AZ likely voters)
    • Mark Kelly (D) - 48%
    • Sen. Martha McSally (R) - 44%
  • Data Orbital (10/3-5; 550 AZ likely voters)
    • Mark Kelly (D) - 49%
    • Sen. Martha McSally (R) - 44%
  • HighGround, Inc. (9/28-10/5; 400 AZ likely voters)
    • Mark Kelly (D) - 50%
    • Sen. Martha McSally (R) - 44%

Colorado

Candidates: Sen. Cory Gardner* (R) vs. Ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper (D)

Trend: Hickenlooper

Polls

  • Survey USA (10/1-6; 1,021 CO likely voters)
    • John Hickenlooper (D) - 48%
    • Sen. Cory Gardner (R) - 39%
  • Morning Consult (9/11-20; 613 CO likely voters)
    • John Hickenlooper (D) - 49%
    • Sen. Cory Gardner (R) - 42%

Georgia-A

Candidates: Sen. David Perdue* (R) vs. Jon Ossoff (D)

Trend: Slightly Perdue

Polls:

  • Public Policy Polling (10/8-9; 528 GA likely voters)
    • Jon Ossoff (D) - 44%
    • Sen. David Perdue (R) - 43%
  • Landmark Communications (10/7; 600 GA likely voters)
    • Sen. David Perdue (R) - 47%
    • Jon Ossoff (D) - 45%
  • University of Georgia (9/27-10/6; 1,106 GA likely voters)
    • Sen. David Perdue (R) - 49%
    • Jon Ossoff (D) - 41%

Georgia-B

Candidates: Sen. Kelly Loeffler* (R) – Jungle Primary

Trend: Runoff: Rev. Raphael Warnock vs. ?

Polls

  • Public Policy Polling (10/8-9; 528 GA likely voters)
    • Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) - 41%
    • Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) - 24%
    • Rep. Doug Collins (R) - 22%
    • Matt Lieberman (D) - 3%
    • Ed Tarver (D)  - 0%
  • Landmark Communications (10/7; 600 GA likely voters)
    • Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) - 36%
    • Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) - 26%
    • Rep. Doug Collins (R) - 23%
    • Matt Lieberman (D) - 3%
    • Kandiss Taylor (D) - 3%
  • University of Georgia (9/27-10/6; 1,106 GA likely voters)
    • Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) - 28%
    • Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) - 22%
    • Rep. Doug Collins (R) - 21%
    • Ed Tarver (D) - 4%
    • Matt Lieberman (D) - 3%

In the jungle primary, a candidate wins the special election outright if they reach 50% plus one vote. Without a majority, the top two finishers will advance to a January 5th runoff election.

Iowa

Candidates: Sen. Joni Ernst* (R) vs. Theresa Greenfield (D)

Trend: Slightly Greenfield

Polls

  • Civiqs (10/3-6; 756 IA likely voters)
    • Theresa Greenfield (D) - 49%
    • Sen. Joni Ernst (R) - 46%
  • Quinnipiac University (10/1-5; 1,205 IA likely voters)
    • Theresa Greenfield (D) - 50%
    • Sen. Joni Ernst (R) - 45%
  • Hart Research Associates (9/24-27; 400 IA likely voters)
    • Theresa Greenfield (D) - 48%
    • Sen. Joni Ernst (R) - 48%

Kansas

Candidates: Rep. Roger Marshall* (R) vs. St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D)

Trend: Slightly Marshall

Polls:

  • VCreek/AMG (9/29-30; 3,104 KS likely voters)
    • St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) - 45%
    • Rep. Roger Marshall (R) - 42%
  • Civiqs (9/26-29; 677 KS likely voters)
    • Rep. Roger Marshall (R) - 50%
    • St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) - 43%
  • GBAO (9/24-27; 600 KS likely voters)
    • St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) - 45%
    • Rep. Roger Marshall (R) - 43%
  • co/efficient (9/15-16; 794 KS likely voters)
    • Rep. Roger Marshall (R) - 43%
    • St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) - 39%

Kentucky

Candidates: Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell* (R) vs. Amy McGrath (D)

Trend: McConnell

Polls

  • Morning Consult (9/11-20; 746 KY likely voters)
    • Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) - 52%
    • Amy McGrath (D) - 37%
  • Data for Progress (9/14-19; 807 KY likely voters)
    • Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) - 46%
    • Amy McGrath (D)  - 39%

Maine

Candidates: Sen. Susan Collins* (R) vs. Speaker Sara Gideon (D)

Trend: Slightly Gideon

Polls

  • Critical Insights (9/25-10/4; 466 ME likely voters)
    • Speaker Sara Gideon (D) - 44%
    • Sen. Susan Collins (R) - 43%
  • Data for Progress (9/23-28; 718 ME likely voters)
    • Speaker Sara Gideon (D) - 46%
    • Sen. Susan Collins (R) - 41%
  • Colby College (9/17-23; 847 ME likely voters)
    • Speaker Sara Gideon (D) - 45%
    • Sen. Susan Collins (R) - 41%
  • Moore Information (9/20-22; 500 ME likely voters)
    • Speaker Sara Gideon (D) - 42%
    • Sen. Susan Collins (R) - 42%
  • Suffolk University (9/17-20; 500 ME likely voters)
    • Speaker Sara Gideon (D) - 46%
    • Sen. Susan Collins (R) - 41%

Michigan

Candidates: Sen. Gary Peters (D) vs. John James* (R)

Trend: Peters

Polls:

  • Emerson College (10/6-7; 716 MI likely voters)
    • Sen. Gary Peters (D) - 51%
    • John James (R) - 41%
  • Ipsos (9/29-10/6; 709 MI likely voters)
    • Sen. Gary Peters (D) - 50%
    • John James (R) - 43%
  • Tarrance Group (10/3-5; 601 MI registered voters)
    • Sen. Gary Peters (D) - 48%
    • John James (R) - 46%
  • Glengariff Group (9/30-10/3; 600 MI likely voters)
    • Sen. Gary Peters (D) - 45%
    • John James (R) - 40%
  • Public Policy Polling (9/30-10/1; 746 MI voters)
    • Sen. Gary Peters (D) - 48%
    • John James (R) - 41%
  • Trafalgar Group (9/26-28; 1,042 MI likely voters)
    • Sen. Gary Peters (D) - 48%
    • John James (R) - 47%

Minnesota

Candidates: Sen. Tina Smith (D) vs. Ex-Rep. Jason Lewis (R)

Trend: Smith

Polls:

  • Emerson College (10/1-6; 929 MN likely voters)
    • Sen. Tina Smith (D) - 44%
    • Jason Lewis (R) - 37%
  • Suffolk University (9/20-24; 500 MN likely voters)
    • Sen. Tina Smith (D) - 45%
    • Jason Lewis (R) - 35%
  • Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (9/21-23; 800 MN likely voters)
    • Sen. Tina Smith (D) - 49%
    • Jason Lewis (R) - 41%

Montana

Candidates: Sen. Steve Daines* (R) vs. Gov. Steve Bullock (D)

Trend: Slightly Daines

Polls

  • Emerson College (10/5-7; 500 MT likely voters)
    • Sen. Steve Daines (R) - 52%
    • Gov. Steve Bullock (D) - 43%
  • Data for Progress (9/30-10/5; 737 MT likely voters
    • Gov. Steve Bullock (D) - 48%
    • Sen. Steve Daines (R) - 47%
  • Siena College/New York Times (9/14-16; 625 MT likely voters)
    • Sen. Steve Daines (R) - 44%
    • Gov. Steve Bullock (D) - 43%

North Carolina

Candidates: Sen. Thom Tillis* (R) vs. Cal Cunningham (D)

Trend: Slightly Cunningham

Polls

  • Ipsos (9/29-10/6; 601 NC likely voters)
    • Cal Cunningham (D) - 47%
    • Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - 42%
  • Data for Progress (9/30-10/5; 1,285 NC likely voters)
    • Cal Cunningham (D) - 50%
    • Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - 39%
  • Public Policy Polling (10/4-5; 911 NC voters)
    • Cal Cunningham (D) - 48%
    • Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - 42%
  • East Carolina University (10/2-4; 1,232 NC likely voters)
    • Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - 47%
    • Cal Cunningham (D) - 46%
  • Change Research (10/2-4; 396 NC likely voters)
    • Cal Cunningham (D) - 50%
    • Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - 46%

South Carolina

Candidates: Sen. Lindsey Graham* (R) vs. Jaime Harrison (D)

Trend: Toss-Up

Polls

  • GBAO (9/24-28; 800 SC likely voters)
    • Jaime Harrison (D) - 48%
    • Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) - 47%
  • Data for Progress (9/23-28; 824 SC likely voters)
    • Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) - 45%
    • Jaime Harrison (D) - 44%
  • Quinnipiac University (9/23-27; 1,123 SC likely voters)
    • Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) - 48%
    • Jaime Harrison (D) - 48%
  • YouGov (9/22-25; 1,080 SC likely voters)
    • Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) - 45%
    • Jaime Harrison (D) - 44%

Texas

Candidates: Sen. John Cornyn* (R) vs. M.J. Hegar (D)

Trend: Cornyn

Polls

  • Pulse Opinion Research (10/5-6; 1,000 TX likely voters)
    • Sen. John Cornyn (R) - 48%
    • M.J. Hegar (D) - 39%
  • Civiqs (10/3-6; 895 TX likely voters)
    • Sen. John Cornyn (R) - 47%
    • M.J. Hegar (D) - 46%
  • Data for Progress (9/30-10/5; 1,949 TX likely voters)
    • Sen. John Cornyn (R) - 45%
    • M.J. Hegar (D) - 42%
  • YouGov (9/25-10/4; 908 TX likely voters)
    • Sen. John Cornyn (R) - 50%
    • M.J. Hegar (D) - 42%
  • UMass @ Lowell (9/18-25; 882 TX likely voters)
    • Sen. John Cornyn (R) - 50%
    • M.J. Hegar (D) - 40%

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