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Where the Senate Stands Today

Posted by 238cc on August 31, 2020  ·  Share This Post

A tough battle is underway for the US Senate majority, and both parties are fiercely attempting to assume control in the next Congress. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, but a win in Alabama would send them to 54-46, and that makes the Democrats’ road to the majority all the more difficult.

Democrats need a net conversion of three Republican seats if Joe Biden is elected President, and four if Donald Trump wins re-election.

Today, we take a snapshot look at polling figures in the key campaign states. How the states listed below eventually fall will determine which party runs the Senate for the 117th Congress.

Below, we provide you the two most extreme results of recent publicly released surveys from the competitive campaigns. The Ellis Insight ratings depict where the race is today, which is not solely based upon polling.

Alabama – Lean R (possible conversion)

  • Morning Consult (7/24-8/2; 809 AL likely voters)
    • Tommy Tuberville* (R) - 52%
    • Sen. Doug Jones (D) - 35%
  • Auburn University at Montgomery (7/2-9; 558 AL registered voters)
    • Tommy Tuberville (R) - 44%
    • Sen. Doug Jones (D) - 36%

Arizona – Lean D (possible conversion)

  • Redfield & Wilton Strategies (8/16-18; 856 AZ likely voters)
    • Mark Kelly (D) - 53%
    • Sen. Martha McSally* (R) - 34%
  • OnMessage (8/2-4; 400 AZ likely voters)
    • Mark Kelly (D) - 48%
    • Sen. Martha McSally (R) - 48%

Colorado – Lean D (possible conversion)

  • Public Policy Polling (8/18-19; 731 CO voters)
    • Ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) - 51%
    • Sen. Cory Gardner* (R) - 42%
  • Morning Consult (7/17-26; 616 CO likely voters)
    • Ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) - 48%
    • Sen. Cory Gardner (R) - 42%

Georgia – A – Lean R/Toss

  • Garin Hart Yang Research Group (8/10-13; 601 GA likely voters)
    • Jon Ossoff (D) - 48%
    • Sen. David Perdue* (R) - 46%
  • Survey USA (8/6-8; 623 GA likely voters)
    • Sen. David Perdue (R) - 44%
    • Jon Ossoff (D) - 41%

Georgia – B – Lean R (Jungle Primary – Nov 3)

  • Survey USA (8/6-8; 623 GA likely voters)
    • Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) - 22%
    • Rep. Doug Collins (R) - 18%
    • Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) - 14%
    • Matt Lieberman (D) - 14%
    • Ed Tarver (D) - 6%
  • MRG Research (6/18-23; 1,259 GA likely voters)
    • Rep. Doug Collins (R) - 27%
    • Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) - 23%
    • Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) - 21%
    • Matt Lieberman (D) - 13%

Iowa – (Toss-Up)

  • Data for Progress (7/24-8/2; 1,101 IA likely voters)
    • Theresa Greenfield (D) - 45%
    • Sen. Joni Ernst* (R) - 41%
  • Monmouth University (7/30-8/3; 401 IA likely voters)
    • Sen. Joni Ernst (R) - 48%
    • Theresa Greenfield (D) - 47%

Kansas – (Lean R)

  • Survey USA (8/5-9; 1,202 KS likely voters)
    • Rep. Roger Marshall* (R) - 46%
    • St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) - 44%
  • Public Policy Polling (8/5-6; 864 KS voters)
    • Rep. Roger Marshall (R) - 43%
    • St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) - 42%

Kentucky – (Lean R)

  • Quinnipiac University (7/30-8/3; 909 KY registered voters)
    • Sen. Mitch McConnell* (R) - 49%
    • Amy McGrath (D) - 44%
  • Morning Consult (7/24-8/2; 793 KY likely voters)
    • Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) - 53%
    • Amy McGrath (D) - 36%

Maine – (Toss-Up)

  • Critical Insights (7/28-8/9; 453 ME likely voters)
    • Sara Gideon (D) - 43%
    • Sen. Susan Collins* (R) - 38%
  • RMG Research (7/27-8/2; 500 ME registered voters)
    • Sara Gideon (D) - 48%
    • Sen. Susan Collins (R) - 41%

Michigan - (Lean D)

  • Change Research (8/21-23; 809 MI likely voters)
    • Sen. Gary Peters (D) - 50%
    • John James* (R) - 45%
  • Redfield & Wilton Strategies (8/16-18; 812 MI likely voters)
    • Sen. Gary Peters (D) - 48%
    • John James (R) - 39%

Minnesota - (Likely D/Lean D)

  • Emerson College (8/8-10; 733 MN likely voters)
    • Sen. Tina Smith (D) - 48%
    • Ex-Rep. Jason Lewis (R) - 45%
  • Public Policy Polling (7/22-23; 1,218 MN voters)
    • Sen. Tina Smith (D) - 48%
    • Ex-Rep. Jason Lewis (R) - 39%

Montana – (Lean R)

  • Emerson College (7/31-8/2; 584 MT likely voters)
    • Sen. Steve Daines* (R) - 50%
    • Gov. Steve Bullock (D) - 44%
  • Public Policy Polling (7/9-10; 1,218 MT voters)
    • Gov. Steve Bullock (D) - 46%
    • Sen. Steve Daines (R) - 44%

North Carolina - (Toss-Up)

  • Morning Consult (8/14-23; 1,541 NC likely voters)
    • Cal Cunningham (D) - 39%
    • Sen. Thom Tillis* (R) - 47%
  • Harper Polling (8/6-10; 600 NC likely voters)
    • Cal Cunningham (D) - 41%
    • Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - 38%

South Carolina - (Lean R)

  • Quinnipiac University (7/30-8/3; 914 SC registered voters)
    • Sen. Lindsey Graham* (R) - 44%
    • Jaime Harrison (D) - 44%
  • Public Policy Polling (7/30-31; 1,117 SC voters)
    • Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) - 47%
    • Jaime Harrison (D) - 44%

Texas - (Lean R)

  • YouGov (8/4-13; 846 TX registered voters)
    • Sen. John Cornyn* (R) - 44%
    • M.J. Hegar (D) - 37%
  • Global Strategy Group/Latino Decisions (7/25-29; 700 TX likely voters)
    • Sen. John Cornyn (R) - 43%
    • M.J. Hegar (D) - 42%