Indiana Primary Results

Since the presidential contest is effectively over, it was with little surprise that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump easily won their respective primaries. 

Turnout heavily favored Republicans, as the GOP participation total outpaced the Democrats by almost 400,000 voters. Of the 35 states holding primaries or definable caucus votes, Republicans have seen more voters cast ballots than Democrats in 26 domains. Of those voting in the Hoosier State, 76.6% of the individuals chose the Republican primary.

Psychologist Valerie McCray easily won the Democratic Senate primary with a 67-33% victory over former state Rep. Marc Carmichael. Ms. McCray will now challenge US Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) who was unopposed for the open Republican nomination. Rep. Banks begins this race as the prohibitive favorite to hold the open Senate seat for the GOP.

Unopposed for the Democratic nomination was Jennifer McCormick, the former state Superintendent of Public Instruction and an ex-Republican. Rep. Banks begins this race as the prohibitive favorite to hold the open Senate seat for the GOP.

While 3rd District incumbent Jim Banks has an easy run for the Senate, the Republican primary to replace him in the House evolved into a highly competitive political battle. The winner is still not formally declared, but it appears that former Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R) will claim the nomination with just 24% of the vote. At this writing, 82% of the ballots have been counted and it is doubtful that the finishing order will change. Following Mr. Stutzman are businessman Tim Smith with 22.2% support, former circuit judge Wendy Davis at 19.3%, and state Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington) who posts a close 16.9% preference factor. 

With the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating IN-3 as R+34, there is little doubt that Mr. Stutzman will win the general election and return to the House after leaving Congress at the beginning of 2017. In 2016, Mr. Stutzman ran for the Senate but failed to overcome then-US Rep. Todd Young in the Republican primary who would then go onto win the open seat in 2016 and re-election in 2022.

The Indiana House incumbent facing the most competitive challenge was Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) who originally announced her retirement only to change her mind before filing time. Despite attracting just 39% of the vote, she wins the plurality primary, which should be enough political insurance to easily carry the general election in this central Indiana district at the beginning of November. 

The Congresswoman’s closest finisher is state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville) whose 33% support figure was unsurprisingly not strong enough to topple the incumbent. None of the other seven GOP candidates even reached the 10% mark. The new Democratic nominee is educator Deborah Pickett who won her party’s nomination with 59% of the vote. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization of R+22, Rep. Spartz will have little trouble winning a third term later this year.

Three-term Rep. Greg Pence (R-Columbus) is retiring, and the Republican nomination battle in this district became fierce. The winner is former Indianapolis City Councilman Jefferson Shreve, who was both the campaign’s biggest fundraiser, and the subject of the most negative attacks. 

Mr. Shreve self-financed $4.5 million of his campaign effort, which was enough to secure a 29-22-21% victory over state Rep. Mike Speedy (R-Indianapolis) and businessman Jamison Carrier. IN-6 is the safest Republican seat in the state, so Mr. Shreve will have little trouble holding the district in the GOP column come the November election.

Seven-term Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Evansville) is the third member of the Hoosier State US House delegation not to seek re-election. Like in the 3rd District, a former Congressman, John Hostettler who represented the seat from 1995-2007, was attempting a political comeback. The result did not turn out as well for Mr. Hostettler as for Mr. Stutzman. 

The winner of the 8th District Republican primary is state Senator Mark Messmer (R-Jasper) who appeared to be the leading candidate from the outset. He topped Mr. Hostettler with a 39-19% victory margin. None of the other six candidates reached the 16% mark. Sen. Messmer now becomes the prohibitive favorite to succeed Rep. Bucshon in the November election.

As expected, Indiana US Sen. Mike Braun won the state’s open Republican gubernatorial primary and now will be the clear favorite to replace term-limited Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) in November.

Sen. Braun defeated Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, and businessmen Brad Chambers and Eric Doden by a 39-22-18-12% count. Though the Senator’s primary win was unimpressive for a sitting statewide incumbent, clinching the party nomination makes Mr. Braun the prohibitive favorite to succeed Gov. Holcomb in November.

Showing 1 reaction

Please check your e-mail for a link to activate your account.