The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statistical organization released their data figures for the new 52 California redistricted congressional districts, and their non-partisan analysis may not be quite as rosy for the Democrats as Gov. Gavin Newsom and the party leaders have boasted. The DRA is the only data organization that has already calculated a clear partisan
The number of U.S. House members announcing they won’t seek re-election next year is beginning to form a cavalcade. Five-term Texas U.S. Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), chairman of the House Budget Committee, recently announced that he won’t seek re-election next year. In his retirement announcement, Rep. Arrington said, “I believe, as our founding fathers did,
A new Harper Polling survey of North Carolina likely voters produced positive numbers for Democrats, but other factors suggest the open Senate race is far from over. Harper projects former Governor Roy Cooper (D) to a lead beyond the polling margin of error for the 2026 Senate race. The underlying numbers, however, suggest that the
U.S. Senate Florida: A University of North Florida statewide poll gives us the first glimpse as to how appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) would fare in a general election. The survey (10/15-25; 728 FL likely 2026 general election voters; live interview) finds Sen. Moody comfortably ahead of former Brevard County School Board member Jennifer Jenkins
It appears we are seeing another state poised to join the mid-decade redistricting wars as an active participant. Indiana Gov. Mike Braun (R) summoned the legislature back into session to work several issues and congressional redistricting is expected to be among them. It is now clear that Indiana will play a major role in how
Unofficial 2026 New York gubernatorial candidate Elise Stefanik, the North Country (NY-21) Republican Congresswoman, has taken a small lead over Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) according to a Manhattan Institute survey. The poll (10/22-26; 900 NY likely voters; live interview & text) finds Ms. Stefanik carrying a 43-42% edge over the governor who is seeking a
Ohio’s unique redistricting process ended as quickly as it began. The Buckeye State’s seven-member redistricting commission, which is comprised of elected officials from both parties and includes Gov. Mike DeWine (R), unanimously passed a new congressional map. The act of the commissioners reaching a bipartisan consensus vote means the map becomes law and does not
The recent election results produced broad victories for Democrats across the board, and it appears that high prices and the state of the economy are among the top reasons. Of course, Democrats will argue that their attacks against President Donald Trump compared to the election results is a rejection of the current administration, and the
The Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers that help us preview the resource standing of the key 2026 U.S. Senate contests. This update covers the most competitive campaigns from Alabama through Texas. Alabama: Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) running for governor has opened the in-cycle Senate contest, and the Republican primary will
U.S. Senate Florida: Ex-Google executive and investor Hector Mujica (D) announced his U.S. Senate candidacy hoping to oppose appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R). Democrats have been searching for a candidate to oppose Sen. Moody in the special election to fill the unexpired term. Because then-Sen. Marco Rubio (R) was appointed Secretary of State, a
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