Signs are prevalent that the special election in western Tennessee’s 7th Congressional district will be closer than the region’s voting history suggests. An Emerson College pre-election survey (11/22-24; 600 TN-7 likely special election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Republican Matt Van Epps, a former cabinet official in Gov. Bill Lee’s (R) administration, leading state Rep.
The already complicated 2025 national redistricting scene grew even more complex when a three judge federal panel in El Paso ruled, in a 2–1 decision, that the new Texas congressional map is a racial gerrymander and therefore voided. The panel ordered the previous 2021 map reinstated. If allowed to stand, the ruling will greatly disrupt
U.S. Senate Kentucky: Well-known racing horse trainer Dale Romans announced that he will compete for Kentucky’s open Democratic U.S. Senate nomination. In the primary he will face retired Marine Corps officer and 2020 U.S.Senate nominee Amy McGrath, who proved herself a strong fundraiser but lacking as a candidate. She was also defeated in a 2018
Last week, the Utah presiding state judge chose a new congressional map that will significantly change the Beehive State delegation. Previously, Judge Dianna Gibson (D) had invalidated the current map drawn in 2021 because she maintained the legislature ignored criteria that voters approved through a ballot initiative. The Utah state Supreme Court then upheld her
The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statistical organization released their data figures for the new 52 California redistricted congressional districts, and their non-partisan analysis may not be quite as rosy for the Democrats as Gov. Gavin Newsom and the party leaders have boasted. The DRA is the only data organization that has already calculated a clear partisan
The number of U.S. House members announcing they won’t seek re-election next year is beginning to form a cavalcade. Five-term Texas U.S. Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), chairman of the House Budget Committee, recently announced that he won’t seek re-election next year. In his retirement announcement, Rep. Arrington said, “I believe, as our founding fathers did,
A new Harper Polling survey of North Carolina likely voters produced positive numbers for Democrats, but other factors suggest the open Senate race is far from over. Harper projects former Governor Roy Cooper (D) to a lead beyond the polling margin of error for the 2026 Senate race. The underlying numbers, however, suggest that the
U.S. Senate Florida: A University of North Florida statewide poll gives us the first glimpse as to how appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) would fare in a general election. The survey (10/15-25; 728 FL likely 2026 general election voters; live interview) finds Sen. Moody comfortably ahead of former Brevard County School Board member Jennifer Jenkins
It appears we are seeing another state poised to join the mid-decade redistricting wars as an active participant. Indiana Gov. Mike Braun (R) summoned the legislature back into session to work several issues and congressional redistricting is expected to be among them. It is now clear that Indiana will play a major role in how
Unofficial 2026 New York gubernatorial candidate Elise Stefanik, the North Country (NY-21) Republican Congresswoman, has taken a small lead over Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) according to a Manhattan Institute survey. The poll (10/22-26; 900 NY likely voters; live interview & text) finds Ms. Stefanik carrying a 43-42% edge over the governor who is seeking a
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