A new Harper Polling survey of North Carolina likely voters produced positive numbers for Democrats, but other factors suggest the open Senate race is far from over. Harper projects former Governor Roy Cooper (D) to a lead beyond the polling margin of error for the 2026 Senate race. The underlying numbers, however, suggest that the
U.S. Senate Florida: A University of North Florida statewide poll gives us the first glimpse as to how appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) would fare in a general election. The survey (10/15-25; 728 FL likely 2026 general election voters; live interview) finds Sen. Moody comfortably ahead of former Brevard County School Board member Jennifer Jenkins
The Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers that help us preview the resource standing of the key 2026 U.S. Senate contests. This update covers the most competitive campaigns from Alabama through Texas. Alabama: Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) running for governor has opened the in-cycle Senate contest, and the Republican primary will
The Tar Heel State of North Carolina appears positioned to join the national redistricting wars. The state has been redrawn more than any other since the 2010 census, and it looks like the legislature may again change the congressional district boundaries. North Carolina has a unique system where the Governor has no veto power over
U.S. Senate Alabama: A recently released late August Alabama Senate survey (The Alabama Poll; 8/24-26; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters) again found Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) leading US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) by a substantial margin. The Alabama Poll posted AG Marshall to a 37-16% lead over Congressman Moore. In July, McLaughlin &
Looking at the early congressional race announcements, we already see a number of former US House members either preparing or considering campaigns for the purpose of returning to their former position. At this point, we could see as many as ten ex-members embarking upon the campaign trail. Former Reps. Jerry Carl (R-AL), Hilda Solis (D-CA),
Without any incumbent losing in the 2026 election, it is possible we will see as many as a dozen new Senators come to Washington when the 120th Congress convenes. Obviously, the number will grow even higher should any incumbent fall to a challenger, and further retirements as state candidate filing deadlines begin to approach are
U.S. Senate Iowa: As predicted, Iowa Republican US Sen. Joni Ernst who won her previous elections in 2014 and 2020, announced that she will not seek re-election next year. Immediately, and also as predicted, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) entered the race for the now open Senate seat. Rep. Hinson will be a viable
U.S. Senate Florida: Educator and 2025 special election congressional nominee Josh Weil (D) announced that he is dropping his US Senate bid. Mr. Weil says a health condition prevents him from continuing his campaign. Earlier this year, Mr. Weil ran as a socialist in a conservative district but managed to raise over $15 million mostly
The redistricting wars are heating up early in this decade, but the latest move coming from Washington could increase the political temperatures to a “white hot” level. President Donald Trump recently ordered the Census Bureau to craft new state population numbers without including non-citizens. Taken to the fullest, the move could lead to transformational ramifications
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