July 8, 2025
Former Congressman and ex-US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D) is returning to the campaign scene. Mr. Allred formally announced his 2026 US Senate candidacy and is “pledging to be a better candidate.”
Despite his self-deprecating comment, Mr. Allred proved himself an able candidate and certainly a prolific fundraiser, accumulating $94.7 million for his 2024 statewide Senate campaign against incumbent Ted Cruz (R). The dollar amount was the fourth largest raised nationally among all individual Senate candidates. The money did not help Mr. Allred secure victory, however, since he lost to Sen. Cruz by a 53-45% margin.
As many believed would be the case, 2024 was not the year Texas would flip to the Democrats considering that then-President Biden’s energy and border policies were proving harmful to the Lone Star State. In addition to Allred losing by a much greater margin than polling suggested, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris fell to President Donald Trump by an even larger 56-42% count.
Now, Mr. Allred is counting on a better Democratic political climate due to the budding and likely divisive Senate Republican primary between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Therefore, the 2026 situation may be better aligned for a Texas Senate Democratic nominee. Because a dozen 2025 polls have all found Paxton leading Cornyn, Democrats see a chance for victory against a weaker general election candidate if the scandal-tainted Attorney General follows through and prevails in next March’s GOP primary.
Mr. Allred, however, may not have a clear path to the Democratic nomination. Former Congressman, ex-presidential candidate and US Senate nominee Beto O’Rourke, and US Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) continue to say that they are considering entering the Senate race even after the Allred announcement.
Though O’Rourke and Castro may be considering running, it is probable that neither will launch their candidacy. Rep. Castro has flirted with running statewide before but has always backed away. He would clearly begin a race against Allred as an underdog.
Beto O’Rourke once had a promising political future when he left the House in the 2018 election cycle to challenge Sen. Cruz and held him to a 51-48% win after running a strong campaign. He then immediately jumped into the 2020 presidential campaign but was an early exit after a disastrous start. He then returned to Texas to launch an ill-fated 2022 run against Gov. Greg Abbott (R), losing by an 11-point margin, 55-44%.
An interesting development occurred on the Republican side just before the Allred announcement that suggests a possible change in direction. Yet another GOP primary poll had been released showing Sen. Cornyn again trailing Mr. Paxton by a large margin (Pulse Decision Science; 6/17-22; 806 TX likely Republican primary voters; Paxton 57 – Cornyn 38%), potentially prompting the four-term incumbent, for the first time, to make a statement hinting that he might not run. Sen. Cornyn stated publicly that ‘if a Republican candidate were to come forward who he was confident would beat Paxton,’ the Senator would step aside.
Turning to potential general election pairings, the most recent poll that tested Mr. Allred against the Republicans was released in May. YouGov, polling for Texas Southern University (5/9-19; 1,200 TX registered voters; online), actually found very little difference between Cornyn and Paxton as the prospective Republican nominee against Allred. From their ballot test result, Sen. Cornyn led Mr. Allred 48-44%. Mr. Paxton fared similarly in that he also led Allred, but by a slightly smaller 48-46% spread. Polling in Texas was considerably inaccurate in 2024 and demonstrated the recurring flaw of underestimating Republican strength. According to the Real Clear Politics polling archives’ cumulative data, 17 polls were conducted of the Trump-Harris race in Texas and the President led by an average of just under seven percentage points. The final result found him carrying the state by almost 14 points.
The Cruz-Allred race was polled in similar fashion. A total of 15 polls from 11 different pollsters were conducted from August through early November of 2024 and, again with cumulative data from the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the race was miscast. The polling average found Sen. Cruz lead at just over four points, yet he won the election with an 8.5 percentage point spread.
Considering that recent election year polling tends to undercut Republican strength, and particularly so in the south, it is likely that both Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton hold at least somewhat stronger margins over Mr. Allred than the early published polling suggests.
There is no question that the Texas Senate race will again be a 2026 political focal point from the beginning of next year until the election cycle closes. We can expect a very competitive campaign with a tighter finish than those consistently seen from the Texas electorate.
