July 17, 2025
Political succession in Arizona and a fractured mayoral race in New York City reflect broader shifts within Democratic power bases, as rising figures navigate legacy politics, party divisions, and changing voter dynamics in two of the nation’s most reliably blue strongholds.
AZ-7
Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, and daughter of the late Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson), won the special Democratic primary, easily defeating media influencer Deja Foxx and former state Representative Daniel Hernandez. Ms. Grijalva’s victory is the first step toward replacing her late father in Congress. The 11-term US Representative passed away in March.
Ms. Grijalva will now face painting contractor Daniel Butierrez, who won the Republican nomination as he did for the 2024 election. In last November’s result, Mr. Butierrez fell to Rep. Grijalva, 63-37%, and spent just over $76,000 on his campaign.
The 7th District of Arizona is strongly Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 65.5D – 32.3R), so Ms. Grijalva is now the prohibitive favorite to win the special general election on September 23rd. At that point, she would be sworn into the House to complete the balance of the current term.
The Grand Canyon State’s vacant 7th District is anchored in Arizona’s second largest city, Tucson, and contains all of Santa Cruz County and parts of four other counties including Pima. The district’s voting age population is heavily Hispanic, 55.4%, as compared to 32.9% White.
The 7th is Arizona’s heaviest Hispanic district and stretches from just west of New Mexico all the way to the California border. In 2024, former Vice President Kamala Harris defeated President Donald Trump here, 60.5 – 38.4 percent.
The Arizona vote was the first in a series of special elections. On July 20th, US Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) will resign from the House. Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) will then have ten days to set the special election calendar for the state’s 7th District (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.1R – 42.1D). At this preliminary point, we already see eight Republicans and four Democrats already declaring their candidacies.
On September 9th, Virginia’s 11th District (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 67.2D – 30.7R) voters will choose a replacement for the late US Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax). The party nominees are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw for the Democrats and Republican former FBI agent Stewart Whitson.
The TX-18 seat (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 73.6D – 24.4R) will then hold its special jungle preliminary election to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) concurrently with the Texas municipal calendar on November 4th. The crowded open contest will most likely produce two runoff participants. Such will occur if no candidate receives majority support, which is the most probable result. If so, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will then schedule a special general election in order to fill the district’s vacant congressional seat.
New York City
Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who lost the New York City Democratic mayoral primary earlier this year, formally announced that he will return for the general election on the Independent ballot line. He joins the city’s incumbent Mayor, Eric Adams, as Independents. Controversial state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-New York City) won the open partisan primary election on June 24th.
With a split field that also includes Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, the most likely result is Mamdani winning a plurality victory in this most Democratic of municipalities. Though the Ranked Choice Voting process was used in the primary election, it is not a factor in the November general election.
