October 20, 2025
U.S. Senate
Iowa: Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris (D) who was responsible for hiring what turned out to be an illegal alien with a criminal record as the Superintendent of Des Moines Public Schools announced that she is ending her U.S. Senate campaign. With such baggage associated with her from the school board situation, it became evident that Ms. Norris would not be a viable statewide candidate.
Florida: Ex-Google executive and investor Hector Mujica (D) announced his U.S. Senate candidacy hoping to oppose appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R). Democrats have been searching for a candidate to oppose Sen. Moody in the special election to fill the unexpired term. Because then-Sen. Marco Rubio (R) was appointed Secretary of State, a special election must be held concurrently with the next regular election. The winner would then serve the balance of the present term. This means Sen. Moody, like appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) in Ohio, who is in a similar position, must run in 2026 and then again in 2028 to secure a full six-year term. It is possible that Mr. Mujica will have the financial resources to compete in what is becoming a more difficult state for Democrats. At this point, Sen. Moody is the clear favorite for the Republican Senate nomination and to win the general election next year.
Kentucky: Marine Corps veteran Amy McGrath, who proved her fundraising prowess in two unsuccessful political races, announced that she will enter the 2026 Kentucky U.S. Senate race. Her previous losses were to Congressman Andy Barr (R-Lexington), who may well again be her opponent in next year’s Senate general election, and Sen. Mitch McConnell. According to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, Ms. McGrath raised over $94 million for her two campaigns. She lost a close race to Rep. Barr, and in a landslide to Sen. McConnell.
Two polls were released in the upcoming open Kentucky Senate race. The co/efficient research firm, polling for former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron (R) (10/8-10; 911 KY likely Republican primary voters; text & live interview), finds their candidate leading Rep. Barr and businessman Nate Morris, 39-22-8%, respectively. Interestingly, Rep. Barr also released his UpONE Insights survey (10/13-14; 600 KY Republican primary voters; live interview) that shows virtually the same result as Mr. Cameron’s co/efficient survey. According to the Barr campaign poll, Mr. Cameron’s advantage is 42-25-10%.
It is unusual for a candidate to release a poll that shows him trailing, but in this case Mr. Barr is doing so. He compares his ballot test with the Cameron data to show that businessman Morris, who is spending heavily to attack Mr. Barr, is not in a position to win the nomination thus proclaiming the campaign as a two-way contest between he and Mr. Cameron.
Louisiana: Sen. Bill Cassidy has drawn another Republican primary opponent. St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden announced that she will join the growing group of Cassidy primary opponents. In the race are State Treasurer and former U.S. Congressman John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia), and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta. U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) continues to dangle the possibility of her entering the race. If she decides not to become a candidate, state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), chair of the Louisiana House Ways & Means Committee, is likely to enter.
Late last year, the legislature and Governor changed Louisiana’s election system. Instead of a jungle primary for federal races, the state returns to a partisan primary format. Therefore, the new primaries are scheduled for April 18. If no candidate secures majority support in the initial election, a runoff between the top two finishers will occur on May 30.
While a potential Republican primary battle for Sen. Cassidy is attracting the most attention, former Governor John Bel Edwards (D), who Democratic leadership had been attempting to recruit into the Senate race, announced that he will not run. Therefore, with Louisiana’s new partisan primary election structure for federal offices, the GOP primary becomes the election that will likely decide who will be the Senator after the 2026 election.
Maine: Maine Democratic Gov. Janet Mills formally declared her intention to challenge veteran Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins. In 2020, the Democrats and their candidate, then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon, spent over $60 million against Sen. Collins in a state of just over a million people. In fact, Ms. Gideon had so much money that her campaign coffers still possessed over $9 million after the election. Though every poll but one showed Gideon winning, Sen. Collins went on to score what had to be considered an upset win despite her long-term incumbency with a 50-42% victory margin. Heading into the election year, the Maine Senate campaign must be rated as a toss-up. Expect the polling to favor Mills, as it consistently favored the Democratic nominee in 2020, but history shows that Maine Republican turnout typically well exceeds projected polling results.
Massachusetts: Six-term U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) announced that he will challenge Sen. Ed Markey (D) in next year’s Democratic primary. Rep. Moulton, who is 47 years of age, will draw a generational contrast with Sen. Markey who would be 86 years old if he secures and finishes another term. The Massachusetts primary is not until September 1 of next year, so much time remains for this campaign to develop. In 2020, Sen. Markey faced a similar primary challenge from then-Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy, III. In that election, Sen. Markey trailed early but used his veteran political experience to score a 55-45% victory over a member of the Kennedy family in their home state. Sen. Markey was first elected to Congress in 1976, and he will complete 50 years of congressional service at the end of his current term.
Texas: As anticipated for months, two-term Congressman Wesley Hunt officially entered the 2026 Republican U.S. Senate primary. He joins a campaign that has been active for almost a year between four-term Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Though Mr. Hunt just became an official candidate, a Super PAC supporting him has already spent a reported $6 million to positively promote him around the state. The advertisements were run in media markets throughout Texas with the exception of Houston, where the Congressman represents.
Early three-way polling suggests a runoff scenario is likely. At this point, it appears Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton are virtually tied, with Mr. Hunt well behind. On the Democratic side, former Congressman Colin Allred ran a strong 2024 Texas U.S. Senate campaign and was one of the nation’s top political fundraisers. A new university survey, however, finds him trailing an entire field of 2026 announced and potential Democratic candidates in the party primary.
The surprising poll result comes from two Lone Star State universities who partnered in conducting the survey: The University of Houston and Texas Southern University. According to the queries of likely Democratic primary voters, Mr. Allred’s preference figure ranks behind controversial Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, former Congressman, ex-presidential and previous Texas statewide candidate Beto O’Rourke, and state Representative James Talarico. Mr. Allred and Rep. Talarico are announced U.S. Senate candidates. Both Ms. Crockett and Mr. O’Rourke confirm they are considering joining the race. With a March 3 primary schedule, final decisions will soon be made.
U.S. House of Representatives
AZ-01: Danica Patrick (R), the former NASCAR race driver and current television personality, announced that she will not enter the open 1st District congressional campaign next year. The politically marginal 1st CD is now open with incumbent Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) entering the Governor’s race when October began. We can expect tough Republican and Democratic open primaries along with a toss-up general election campaign to unfold.
CA-03: Former state Senator Richard Pan (D) announced that he will challenge two-term U.S. Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). Should the California redistricting special election referendum pass in November, the 3rd District will radically change. Under the current configuration, President Donald Trump scored a 50.3 – 46.5% victory over Kamala Harris, and Rep. Kiley was re-elected with a 55-45% margin. Should the referendum pass, the new 3rd CD would have supported Ms. Harris with a 55-44% spread meaning that Mr. Pan would likely become the favorite to unseat the Republican incumbent. From his announcement comments, it appears Mr. Pan will continue his campaign irrespective of the district boundaries.
CA-45: Since former U.S. Rep. Michelle Steel (R) has decided not to seek a rematch in 2026 against freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange), Republicans may have found a new candidate. Former Cerritos City Councilman Chuong Vo announced that he will enter the 2026 race to challenge the new Congressman. Should the California redistricting map receive majority vote in the November 4 special election, the 45th would move several points closer to the Democratic side but would still be a competitive seat. Mr. Vo says he will run regardless of the redistricting outcome.
IA-02: Former U.S. Rep. Rod Blum (R) who last month announced that he would compete for the open 2nd Congressional District in 2026, already has ended his campaign. Mr. Blum says he can “better help President Trump in other ways that are more effective than being in the U.S. House.”
The 2nd District is open because U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/ Cedar Rapids) is running for the U.S. Senate. On the Republican side, the major candidates are state Sen. Charlie McClintock (R-Alburnett), state Rep. Shannon Lundgren (R-Peosta) and former state Rep. Joe Mitchell. State Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) appears as the leading Democratic candidate. The 2nd District tilts Republican in general election contests with a 51.4R – 45.3D partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians.
IL-02: Former nine-term U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D) announced that he will attempt a political comeback in his former district. Mr. Jackson resigned from the House in 2012 after pleading to misusing $750,000 in congressional and campaign funds. He would spend 18 months in federal prison. In an open crowded Democratic field, Mr. Jackson will likely become the favorite to win the Democratic primary and then the seat next year. The 2nd District is open because incumbent Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) is running for U.S. Senate. Mr. Jackson’s brother, Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago), currently represents the 1st Congressional District.
ME-02: Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) has drawn a strong Democratic primary opponent. State Auditor and former Secretary of State (appointed positions in Maine) Matt Dunlap announced he will challenge Mr. Golden for the party nomination in the June 9 primary. Mr. Dunlap has already unleashed a one-minute digital ad attacking both Rep. Golden and former Maine Governor Paul LePage, who at this point is unopposed in the Republican primary. The Dunlap ad attacks Rep. Golden as “bad,” and ex-Gov. LePage as “worse.” The attack centers around their lack of opposition to (Golden) and support for (LePage) President Donald Trump. The Golden-Dunlap congressional primary will be an interesting race, and with ex-Gov. LePage running as the Republican nominee in a district he carried in all three of his statewide elections, ME-2 could realistically become the GOP’s top national conversion target.
MD-07: Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway (D) filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission suggesting that he may challenge veteran U.S. Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore). Rep. Mfume was first elected to the House in 1986 but left Congress to head the NAACP in 1996. He returned to the House in the 2020 election. Prior to his service in Congress, Mr. Mfume spent eight years on the Baltimore City Council. It remains to be seen whether Mr. Conway is preparing a primary challenge or readying a congressional committee in case Congressman Mfume decides to retire.
MO-01: Former Missouri Congresswoman Cori Bush (D), who was defeated in the 2024 Democratic primary, announced that she will attempt a political comeback. Ms. Bush declared that she will return for a rematch with freshman Rep. Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis), who defeated her 51-46% in the previous Democratic primary. The 1st District is largely unchanged in the new Missouri redistricting map, so we will see a rerun of the 2024 campaign. In ’24, Rep. Bell went onto score a 76% win in the general election. During her two terms in the House, Ms. Bush was a member of the informal Democratic Socialist “Squad” caucus.
NH-02: Democratic state Representative Paige Beauchemin (D-Nashua) announced that she will challenge freshman U.S. Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) in next year’s September Democratic primary. Ms. Beauchemin, who won her state position in 2022, says she will run a campaign based upon a “message of radical empathy and grassroots energy.” Rep. Goodlander will be a heavy favorite for renomination and re-election in 2026.
NY-19: In a seat that has swung back and forth between Democratic and Republican representation in the U.S. House, freshman Rep. Josh Riley (D-Ithaca), who defeated then-Rep. Marc Molinaro (R), sees a new Republican announcing his candidacy. In what promises to be a competitive race, state Sen. Peter Oberacker (R-Schenevus) stated that he will join the 2026 congressional campaign. We can expect this race to become a national congressional campaign that is expensive and highly competitive.
TN-05: Former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher (R) announced that he will challenge two-term U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) next year. Rep. Ogles was renominated in 2024 despite ethics charges being filed against him and accusations that his professional history is untruthful. Gov. Bill Lee appointed Mr. Hatcher to lead the Agriculture Department for his administration in 2019. This 5th District congressional campaign will be a race to watch in the August 6 Republican primary.
TN-07: Another special election was held to fill a vacant congressional seat, this one in western Tennessee. On October 7, both parties conducted competitive primary elections. For the Republicans, with President Donald Trump’s endorsement, former Tennessee cabinet secretary Matt Van Epps easily won the Republican nomination. On the Democratic side, in a tight four-way race that featured three state legislators, state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) won the party nomination. The 7th District is strongly Republican, so Mr. Van Epps is favored in the December 2nd special general election. The winner will replace resigned Republican Representative Mark Green who left Congress to accept a position in the private sector.
TN-09: Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson (D-Memphis) announced that he will challenge veteran U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) who, as a White male, has held the majority Black district since the 2006 election. Prior to his service in Congress, Rep. Cohen served 24 years in the Tennessee state Senate. This is another Democratic primary situation where a young challenger – Rep. Pearson is 30 years of age – is challenging an older veteran incumbent. Rep. Cohen is 76 years old. This race can become highly competitive.
UT-04: While it appears the new Utah redistricting map will create at least one competitive or lean Democrat district, former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams (D) has filed a new 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Mr. McAdams was elected to the House in 2018 but defeated in 2020. Prior to serving one term in Congress, Mr. McAdams was the Mayor of Salt Lake County and a former state Senator.
Redistricting
Louisiana: The U.S. Supreme Court held a second round of oral arguments on the Louisiana racial redistricting case on October 15. The high court ruling on this case could set further legal parameters on redistricting situations around the country, particularly relating to the Alabama and Texas legal challenges as well, of course, as the state’s own 6-member delegation.
Governorships
Alaska: Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson (R), who was defeated for re-election to a second term, has entered the 2026 open Governor’s race. He becomes the 10th Republican vying for the party nomination. The group includes Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and ex-appointed Attorney General Treg Taylor. U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski also has not publicly ruled out joining the campaign. On the Democratic side, former state Senator Tom Begich is the only announced candidate. Mr. Begich, however, says he will withdraw if former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola decides to enter. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
California: Billionaire Tom Steyer (D), who was a 2020 presidential candidate, is considering entering the California Governor’s campaign particularly since polling leader and former U.S. Representative Katie Porter (D) has stumbled recently. Mr. Steyer begins his new California political involvement with a $12 million contribution to aid the Democrats’ efforts to pass the redistricting referendum scheduled for November 4. Obviously, Mr. Steyer has the financial wherewithal to compete in a California statewide race, meaning a highly competitive jungle primary next June with a large number of candidates.
Maine: Healthcare company executive Jonathan Bush, cousin to former President George W. Bush, announced that he is joining the crowded open Governor’s candidate field. Mr. Bush is now the seventh Republican to announce his or her candidacy. Democrats have five contenders, along with three Independents. Gov. Janet Mills (D) cannot succeed herself under Maine’s term limit law. She is expected to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) next year.
Maryland: The political rumors that former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) would return in 2026 to challenge the man who replaced him, now-Gov. Wes Moore (D), will likely continue with the release of a new poll pairing the two men. According to the Baltimore Banner poll (10/7-10; 928 MD registered voters), Gov. Moore would lead ex-Gov. Hogan 44-37%. The numbers are not particularly good for either man. Mr. Hogan is running far behind his victorious totals in 2018 and 2022, while Gov. Moore is well under 50% in a re-election poll. It is doubtful that Mr. Hogan will run again, but the media will continue to speculate. Absent a potential Hogan challenge, Gov. Moore should easily win re-election.
New Jersey: Despite considerable negative publicity for Democratic nominee and U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) over her stock transactions and Naval Academy cheating scandal controversy, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds her still leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli. The PPP results (10/2-3; 703 NJ registered voters; text and live interview) see Ms. Sherrill posting a 49-43% advantage. Other polls show the Sherrill lead between two and eight points. It is probable the race is close. Mr. Ciattarelli has substantially under-polled in his previous statewide campaigns based upon the actual result. This will be an interesting race in the campaign’s final month as the candidates stream toward the November 4 election date. The latest Quinnipiac University research survey (10/9-13; 1,327 NJ likely voters; live interview) finds Rep. Sherrill continuing to lead Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Their ballot test finds a Sherrill lead of 50-44%. The race is likely closer with Ciattarelli’s history of under-polling. Expect a tight finish as the contest will continue all the way through November 4.
New York: After several polls had shown Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) posting large polling leads over presumed GOP candidate and U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), an extensive Grayhouse firm survey (9/20-26; 1,250 NY likely voters; 750 text-to-web; 500 live interview; 605 NY likely Democratic primary voters) sees a much closer ballot test result. According to Grayhouse, Gov. Hochul’s lead is just 48-43% over Rep. Stefanik. This data also shows a tightening of the Democratic primary, though Gov. Hochul maintains a sizable lead. The ballot test for this cell segment shows the Governor’s advantage at 43-14% over Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado.
Rhode Island: After toying with the idea of challenging Democratic Gov. Dan McKee in the party primary, term-limited Attorney General Peter Neronha announced that he will not enter the statewide race. At this point, the Governor’s principal Democratic challenger is his 2022 opponent, former corporate CEO Helena Foulkes. State House Speaker Joe Shekarchi (D-Warwick) is also reportedly still considering a gubernatorial bid. The Rhode Island primary is not until September 8, so much time remains for this race to gel. Winning the Democratic primary is tantamount to clinching the Governorship.
South Carolina: A new poll suggests the open South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary has a new leader, and it is not any of the more established political names. The Trafalgar Group just released a new October poll for the South Carolina Republican primary (9/30-10/2; 1,094 SC likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the race’s top finisher is Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. From these results, Ms. Evette edges U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Attorney General Alan Wilson, U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg), 20-16-12-9-1%, respectively with an undecided percentage of 41. All figures are rounded to the highest number.
Texas: State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin) announced that she will enter the Governor’s race, espousing the liberal agenda. Her approach may propel her in the Democratic primary but would not likely be successful in the general election. Ms. Hinojosa faces investment company CEO Andrew White, the son of the late Governor Mark White, and a group of minor candidates. The eventual Democratic nominee faces Gov. Greg Abbott (R) who is running for a fourth term.
Virginia: With the controversy surrounding Democratic Attorney General nominee Jay Jones, the Governor’s race is also tightening because nominee Abigail Spanberger (D) has mishandled the situation in remaining silent and refusing to condemn Jones’ violent posts. Two of the three most recent polls show the race closing. The Trafalgar Group (10/8-10; 1,034 VA likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees the Spanberger lead over Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R) falling to 48-45%. The Cygnal research group (10/6-7; 600 VA likely voters; live interview & text) reports a similar 49-45% split. Public Policy Polling, however, still projects a Democratic advantage nearing double-digits. Their latest survey (10/7-8; 558 VA registered voters; text and live interview) shows Spanberger leading 52-43%.
Wisconsin: Ending speculation about whether he would enter the open Governor’s race, state Attorney General Josh Kaul (D) announced that he will seek re-election to a third term rather than enter what will be a highly competitive open campaign. The Democratic gubernatorial primary field already features Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, former state cabinet secretary Missy Hughes, and two state legislators. Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not seeking a third term.
State and Local
New Orleans: City Council President Helena Moreno (D) was victorious in outright fashion in the open mayoral election. Ms. Moreno defeated state Sen. Royce Duplessis and City Councilman Oliver Thomas, 55-22-19%. The fact that she secured majority support means there is no runoff, and she will replace outgoing Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D) who was ineligible to seek a third term.
