November 19, 2025
The already complicated 2025 national redistricting scene grew even more complex when a three judge federal panel in El Paso ruled, in a 2–1 decision, that the new Texas congressional map is a racial gerrymander and therefore voided. The panel ordered the previous 2021 map reinstated. If allowed to stand, the ruling will greatly disrupt the Texas political cycle as candidates prepare for the early March 3, 2026 primary.
Critics argue the ruling is questionable because no racial data was used in drawing the 2025 map and because the court relied on assumptions about U.S. Department of Justice intent, including references to liberal news sources. Texas is expected to appeal, and because all three judge panel decisions go directly to the U.S. Supreme Court, the justices must respond.
Reverting to the 2021 map changes 37 of Texas’ 38 congressional districts. Only district 19, the open seat of retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), remains constant. While the 2025 map created nine open seats, restoring the 2021 map likely reduces that number to seven. Twenty-six districts see only minor adjustments, while eleven experience major alterations.
One major shift involves Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin), who had announced retirement under the 2025 map because he was paired with Rep. Greg Casar (D-Austin) in a new 37th district. Under the restored 2021 map, both Doggett and Casar return to their previous districts, and Doggett has indicated he would seek re-election if the 2025 map were tossed.
The invalidated 2025 map created a new 9th district in eastern Harris County. If the ruling stands, that district disappears and candidates running there will have no seat. Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) would again run in the reinstated 9th rather than being paired with the eventual winner of the January 31, 2026 special runoff in the 18th district to fill the vacancy created by the passing of Rep. Sylvester Turner (D).
Rep. Michael McCaul’s (R-Austin) 10th district remains an open seat even under the restored boundaries, and the candidate pool will likely remain the same. Similar situations exist in districts 8 and 21, where Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) is retiring and Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) is running for state attorney general.
In South Texas, Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) returns to her original 15th district. Though the new version would have given her more Republican voters, she is still well positioned under the 2021 lines. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) regains San Antonio area precincts that previously led to competitive primaries, meaning he may again face a serious challenge. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) avoids a tougher new 34th district and regains stronger Democratic territory anchored in Brownsville, though he only won 51–49 in 2024 and is still likely to face Mayra Flores (R) again.
The Dallas–Fort Worth region also sees major reversals. Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth), whose Tarrant County base was removed under the 2025 plan, returns to his previous district and may now remain in the House rather than running for Tarrant County Judge. Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) avoids having her 32nd district moved into heavily Republican East Texas and returns to her prior district configuration.
Republicans had calculated a gain of five seats under the 2025 map, but many projections were optimistic. Under the restored 2021 map, GOP gains disappear, making retention of their slim House majority more precarious.
The situation is further complicated by the Justice Department’s racial gerrymandering challenge to the new California map, filed November 13. That case will be heard by a three judge panel, and conflicting rulings between circuits could force the Supreme Court to intervene. A stay in the Texas case could return the 2025 map for 2026 depending on the Supreme Court’s ruling in the Louisiana gerrymandering case.
With candidate filing closing December 8, the March 3 primary approaching, and Houston’s 18th district holding a special runoff on January 31, 2026, uncertainty over district lines may become another reason to postpone the Texas primary. Louisiana has already delayed its own primary by one month due to its Supreme Court case.
With so many districts changing and timelines tightening, firm decisions must soon be made.
