December 2, 2025
U.S. Senate
Michigan: Countering a Rosetta Stone poll (10/23-25; 637 MI likely general election voters) released recently that found former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R) leading all potential Democratic nominees beyond the polling margin of error, regular Michigan pollster EPIC-MRA (released 11/14; 600 MI likely general election voters) finds a different result. From their data, both U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) would post a two and one-point lead over Mr. Rogers, respectively, meaning this pollster sees the race as a dead heat.
North Carolina: Harper Polling, conducting a survey for the Carolina Journal online news site (11/9-10; 600 NC likely general election voters; live interview & online) shows former Governor Roy Cooper (D) posting a 47-39% lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley (R). There are several reasons for the large spread. First, Mr. Cooper has won six statewide races in North Carolina, two for governor and four as attorney general, so he is a well-known Tar Heel State political figure. Second, Mr. Whatley’s name identification is low, and third, Democrats typically over-poll in North Carolina by at least two percentage points. As the campaign unfolds, we can again expect a very close finish, something that typically happens in North Carolina statewide campaigns.
Texas: Ragnar Research (11/12-17; 1,000 TX likely voters; live interview) released a new Texas U.S. Senate poll that finds general political supposition about the TX Senate race is correct. That is, Sen. John Cornyn (R) would lead both 2024 Senate nominee and ex-Congressman Colin Allred (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), but Attorney General Ken Paxton would be in danger of losing the general election. In this poll, Sen. Cornyn tops Allred and Talarico by seven and six points, respectively. As predicted, the two Democrats fare better against Paxton. Mr. Allred would lead 44-43%, and Rep. Talarico would tie the scandal-tainted AG at 44-44%.
U.S. House of Representatives
CA-11: Former San Francisco Mayor London Breed (D), who lost her battle for re-election to current Mayor Daniel Lurie (D) in 2024, announced she will not run for the open 11th Congressional district that former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is vacating. Instead, she endorsed the front runner, state Senator Scott Weiner (D-San Francisco).
FL-19: The U.S. Justice Department has ended its probe of Lee County Sheriff Carmen Marceno (R) clearing him of money laundering accusations. The sheriff is now openly considering joining the open 19th Congressional race but will decide at a later date. If he enters, he will be only the second significant Republican from Florida to become a candidate. The other contenders are former New York Congressman Chris Collins, ex-North Carolina U.S. Representative Madison Cawthorn, former Illinois state Senator Jim Oberweis, and two other defeated candidates from New York and Illinois. The only announced Floridian with resources is radio station owner Jim Schwartzel (R). The Fort Myers anchored 19th district is safely Republican. Incumbent U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is running for governor.
HI-01: U.S. Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe) leads his two Democratic rivals in early 2026 primary polling. The Data for Progress firm tested the Hawaii Democratic primary (10/6-14; released currently; 366 likely Democratic primary voters; text & online) and found Mr. Case below 50% support but well ahead of his intra-party opponents. Opposite former state House Majority Leader Della Belatti and state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Kailua), Rep. Case posts a 40-16-12% plurality.
IL-04: The U.S. House officially rebuked Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) for not allowing an open primary to replace him since he is not seeking re-election next year. In order to pave the way for his chief of staff, Patty Garcia (not related to the Congressman), as his successor, Mr. Garcia waited until the end of the candidate filing period to announce his retirement decision and Ms. Garcia was able to file at the last moment. Now, two individuals are moving toward qualifying as Independent candidates in order to challenge Ms. Garcia. Chicago Alderman Byron Sigcho-Lopez (D) and former Latino Victory Fund executive director Mayra Macias (D) are looking to qualify for the ballot. To do so, however, they must submit more than 15,000 petition signatures by May 26, 2026, to qualify for the general election.
NY-08: New York City Councilman Chi Osse (D-Brooklyn) filed a campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission to prepare for a potential race against House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn). While Mr. Osse says he is considering the race, taking such action suggests that he is moving toward a challenge. Mr. Jeffries will be favored for renomination should such a campaign unfold, but Mr. Osse will be a serious challenger.
NJ-11: New Jersey Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) officially resigned from the House to allow Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to schedule the special election to fill the 11th district vacancy. The governor is expected to calendar the special partisan primaries at the beginning of February with the special general election in early April. Among those indicating they will run for the seat is former 7th district Congressman Tom Malinowski (D) who lost his post in 2022 after redistricting made his seat slightly more Republican. Democrats are favored to hold the seat in the special election.
TX-18: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) announced that the special runoff election to fill the vacant 18th CD in Houston will occur on January 31. Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) qualified for the runoff on November 4. Immediately upon winning the special election, the victor will face U.S. Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in the regular 2026 primary election on March 3 if the Texas redistricting decision is stayed or have a free ride to re-election in the 2021 version of TX-18.
Redistricting
Indiana: State legislative leaders adjourned Gov. Mike Braun’s (R) special session. The governor wanted the legislature to address congressional redistricting and other issues in the immediate session. Rather, the legislature will convene in January. National Republican leaders will continue to push to see redistricting completed in the early part of next year. The Indiana primary is scheduled for May 5, 2026. The related candidate filing deadline closes February 6, 2026, so time will be short to draw and approve a new map.
Texas: The already complicated 2025 national redistricting scene is now even more complex. In a 2-1 ruling, a three-judge federal panel in El Paso ruled that the new Texas map is a racial gerrymander and therefore voided. The panel majority ordered the previous 2021 map reinstated. Critics, including Circuit Judge Jerry Smith, the dissenting panel member, say the ruling is questionable since no racial data was used in drawing the map and the decision knowingly defines the U.S. Department of Justice officials’ intent. The state of Texas is appealing the ruling. All appeals of three-judge panel decisions go directly to the U.S. Supreme Court, and the high court must respond. The Texas ruling also creates a further potential conflicting situation when considering that the Justice Department filed a racial gerrymandering complaint against the new California map on November 13. A California three-judge federal panel will be formed to hear that case.
Governorships
Arizona: Emerson College (11/8-10; 850 AZ registered voters; 381 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) provides additional polling evidence finding U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) way ahead in the Republican gubernatorial primary. According to the poll results, Rep. Biggs would lead 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson and U.S. Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) 50-17-8%. For the general election, all candidates are highly competitive with Gov. Katie Hobbs (D).
California: Billionaire Tom Steyer (D), who ran for president in 2020 as an environmental activist, announced that he will enter the crowded California governor’s race. No one has yet broken free from the large pack of candidates. Previous leader Katie Porter (D), a former U.S. Congresswoman and 2024 U.S. Senate candidate, has lost momentum; therefore, Mr. Steyer could be in strong position to capture one of two general election finalist positions under the state’s top two jungle primary system. Mr. Steyer certainly has the wherewithal to self-finance a statewide campaign even in exceedingly expensive California.
Michigan: The aforementioned EPIC-MRA new Michigan survey (11/6-11; 600 MI likely general election voters) also polled the state’s open governor’s race in addition to the Senate contest (see Senate section above). As with other polls conducted of this statewide contest, EPIC sees a close three-way race among U.S. Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D), and outgoing Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (I). In this case, the top two finishers, James and Benson, come within a point of each other (33-32%) while Mr. Duggan posts 20% support. Expect this race also to be in toss-up mode until the final votes are counted. Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term but is a likely 2028 presidential candidate.
New York: The Siena Research Institute of Siena University conducted a New York gubernatorial survey (11/10-12; 802 NY registered voters) and found very different results when compared to previously published data. Countering the recent Manhattan Institute survey (10/22-26; 900 NY likely voters) that showed U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) taking a one point, 43-42% lead over Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), Siena finds the governor holding a major 52-32% advantage. It is surprising to see such a huge difference in polling results over a similar time period. Therefore, future polling will be closely monitored.
Rhode Island: Businessman Greg Stevens, who owns a chain of restaurants in Rhode Island, announced he will enter the Democratic primary to challenge Gov. Dan McKee. He joins former CVS chief marketing officer Helena Foulkes, the niece of former Connecticut U.S. Senator Christopher Dodd (D), in opposing the governor. Ms. Foulkes ran in 2022 and came within three percentage points of denying the governor nomination for a full term. Mr. McKee, previously the state’s lt. governor, assumed the office when then-Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) resigned in 2021 to become U.S. Commerce Department Secretary in the Biden Administration. State House Speaker Joe Shekarchi (D-Warwick) is also a potential gubernatorial candidate. This will be a highly competitive race that won’t be decided until Rhode Island’s late September 8, 2026, primary.
South Dakota: Gov. Larry Rhoden (R), who, as lt. governor, assumed the state’s top office when then-Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned to become Homeland Security Department Secretary, formally announced that he will compete in next year’s gubernatorial campaign. His principal opponent is the state’s at-large Congressman Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell). Early polling suggests a very close June 2 primary battle will ensue.
State and Local
Arkansas: Candidate filing closed in Arkansas for the state’s March 3, 2026, primary election and both Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) and Sen. Tom Cotton (R) have drawn only minimal re-election opposition. It is likely Gov. Sanders will face state Senator Fred Love (D-Mabelvale) in the general election, while Sen. Cotton’s likely Democratic opponent will be Lewisville Mayor Ethan Dunbar. Both incumbents are prohibitive favorites for re-election.
