March 11, 2026
CA-48
In another House retirement decision, veteran California US Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) reversed course and announced on Friday that he will not seek re-election this Autumn.
The new California redistricting plan was not kind to Rep. Issa, but he initially made statements predicting victory in the new version of District 48. Under the current map, the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation revealed a 58.3R – 39.8D split for CD-48. The new version, in use for the 2026 election, yields a 50.6D – 48.7R partisan lean. Though the Democratic map drawers attempted to make this a seat for their new party standard bearer, the numbers suggest a competitive contest will develop potentially resulting in a toss-up rating.
With the news of Mr. Issa’s intended retirement, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R), who was running in Congressional District 49 against US Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano), will change his focus and move into what will now be an open 48th CD.
Mr. Desmond, who represents much of CA-48 on the county Board, will be a strong candidate for the GOP and can now compete in a district more favorable for a Republican. New District 49 carries a 53.8D – 45.3R partisan lean according to the DRA calculations.
There are 12 announced CA-48 Democratic candidates. California candidate filing closed on Friday but because the incumbent did not file in this district, the deadline extends until March 11. Therefore, it becomes unclear exactly how many individuals will ultimately qualify.
Among the notable Democratic individuals who had previously announced are frequent candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar, San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, and Vista City Councilwoman Corinna Contreras.
A recent Public Policy Polling company survey (2/16-17; 727 CA-48 registered voters; live interview and text) produced a 40-18% Issa lead over Mr. Campa-Najjar with no other potential candidate even reaching the 10% level.
Under California’s top two jungle primary system, all contenders will compete in a June 2 qualifying election. The top two finishers, regardless of partisan affiliation and percentage attained, will advance to the general election. Under the new lineup, Supervisor Desmond appears as a lock to advance because he will likely coalesce the Republican vote, while the large Democratic grouping will split their party’s votes and battle for the second qualifying position.
While the partisan lean slightly favors the Democrats, the CA-48 election could conceivably develop into a toss-up general election campaign as previously mentioned. Without Rep. Issa in the race, however, the eventual Democratic finalist will begin the general election with a slight advantage.
CA-6
As candidate filing was coming to a close in northern California’s 6th District, we see 3rd District Congressman Kevin Kiley (I-Rocklin) filing in this domain while 6th District incumbent Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) is seeking re-election in the adjacent District 3.
Rep. Kiley appeared indecisive about where he would run. Most observers believed he would file against Republican Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in District 5, which stretches all the way to the Fresno area. The 5th is one of four Republican favorable districts in the state after the new redistricting plan was enacted. Mr. Kiley clearly did not want to challenge Rep. Bera in CD-3, so as the filing deadline drew near the Congressman announced that he would enter the District 6 race indicating that he did not want to run in a place, meaning CD-5, that didn’t include his hometown.
District 6, located to the north and east of downtown Sacramento and stretching to the city of Roseville, is now as Democratic as District 3 (each new draw for Districts 3 and 6 show a partisan lean of approximately 53D – 46R). While running in CD-6 does not provide Mr. Kiley with a partisan edge, he isn’t facing a fellow incumbent.
His surprise move, likely in an attempt to negate some of his partisan disadvantage, is to file as a No Party Preference candidate, meaning an Independent.
While he isn’t opposing Rep. Bera, Mr. Kiley does have a group of formidable Democrats to overcome. In the field are Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho, West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero, and ex-state Senator Richard Pan. In all, six Democrats, four Republicans, and Rep. Kiley on the NPP ballot line appears to be the 6th District field.
How Rep. Kiley not filing as a Republican helps him remains a subject of debate. While he is trying to ditch the GOP party label in an area where it is unpopular, he loses the institutional party support and likely many donors. He begins the campaign with just over $2 million in his campaign account, which should be enough to run a credible campaign if the money is spent late in the campaign cycle.
Both CA-48 and CA-6 will be districts to watch in the June 2 qualifying election and the November campaign.
