March 16, 2026
It has been known for some time that Sen. Bill Cassidy* (R) was going to face real competition in his fight for renomination this year, but a legitimate three-way race scenario was not often speculated upon.
A series of late February surveys and the most recent Cassidy campaign poll confirm that State Treasurer and former Congressman and ex-White House Deputy Chief of Staff John Fleming is a viable Republican Senate candidate. This, even though President Donald Trump has endorsed US Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) against Sen. Cassidy.
The two-term incumbent is not a Trump favorite because he is one of two GOP Senators on the ballot in 2026 – Maine’s Susan Collins* is the other – who voted to impeach President Trump in early 2021 over the January 6 Capitol conflict.
Public Opinion Strategies, surveying for the Cassidy campaign (3/7-10; 500 LA likely Republican primary voters; live interview), sees the Senator holding a 35-24-21% advantage over Rep. Letlow and Mr. Fleming. Testing a Cassidy-Letlow runoff, the incumbent would hold only a 45-43% edge. The Cassidy-Fleming runoff possibility was not tested, but it would not be surprising to see a similar preference division.
The February polls, however, show a stronger Fleming standing. The BDPC survey research organization, a bipartisan Louisiana firm, tested the Republican Senate race during the February 21-23 period (600 LA likely Republican primary voters) and found a closer ballot test result, 28-21-21% with Sen. Cassidy leading and Letlow and Fleming tied. According to this survey, Fleming would lead both Cassidy (43-32%) and Letlow (36-27%) in runoff scenarios.
Quantas Insights and JMC Analytics & Polling also project a three-way race in their February polling. Quantas (2/23-24; 1,428 LA likely Republican primary voters; online) saw a 34-25-20% split with Mr. Fleming leading, Rep. Letlow second, and the Senator dropping to third. A Fleming-Letlow runoff was tested and broke 42-32% in Fleming’s favor.
JMC Analytics, another regular Louisiana pollster (2/14-16; 645 LA likely Republican primary voters; live interview), found a virtual three-way tie with Mr. Fleming holding a slight 26-25-22% lead over Rep. Letlow and Sen. Cassidy.
The renomination road for Sen. Cassidy is more difficult than in his first two elections. The state has moved away from its jungle primary system that featured all candidates on the same ballot in a vote scheduled concurrently with the general election. If a contender received majority support, the individual was elected outright in the one election. If no one attained the 50% plateau, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, would advance to an early December runoff election.
In 2024, the legislature and Governor changed the law for federal and some state offices, concluding that their freshmen federal officials were at an organizational disadvantage in Congress because some of their members were joining the body a month after all others. Therefore, the legislative leaders and Governor Jeff Landry (R) believed that the state was penalizing itself in terms of key committee assignments and in some leadership elections. This, even though the Speaker Mike Johnson* and Majority Leader Steve Scalise* both hail from Louisiana.
A reason less talked about for the change is the Senate race. Clearly, the legislators were aware that returning to a partisan primary/runoff system would make re-election much more difficult for Sen. Cassidy, who is viewed as less conservative than the typical Louisiana Republican legislator and primary voter.
Therefore, under the new nomination system, we see a closed primary (voters must be registered party members) scheduled for Saturday, May 16 with a runoff if no one receives majority support calendared for June 27.
Sen. Cassidy is certainly prepared for a tough challenge. He reported over $10.1 million cash-on-hand (COH) at the end of 2025, which is a 4:1 COH advantage over Rep. Letlow, and 5:1 opposite Mr. Fleming.
Considering the Trump endorsement for Rep. Letlow and the GOP/MAGA base expressing anti-Cassidy sentiments, the Senator will need every bit of his financial advantage to fight his way through to renomination.
