July 28, 2025
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) surprisingly announced that he will not seek a third term next year, which has initiated a game of Badger State political musical chairs.
Previously, most observers believed that Gov. Evers would run and comments he made leading to the decision were clearly giving the impression that he wanted to call himself, “Three-Term Tony.” Gov. Evers would turn 75 years of age at the next election, and he is already the second oldest Governor in Wisconsin history. Therefore, longevity and quality of retirement life could have factored into his decision.
Immediately, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (D) said she would run to succeed Gov. Evers and Sen. Ron Johnson (R) made a statement saying he will not enter an open gubernatorial race. Ms. Rodriguez, however, can expect to compete in a crowded August 11 Democratic primary before someone advances into the general election.
Two-term Attorney General Josh Kaul (D) has long been considered a gubernatorial prospect. Several state legislators and county and city officials, particularly from Milwaukee, are also expressing interest. So has former Lt. Governor and 2022 US Senate candidate Mandela Barnes.
In the congressional delegation, we see little early movement toward what is now an open Governor’s race. Democrats hold only two US House seats, those of US Reps. Mark Pocan (D-Town of Vermont/Madison) and Gwen Moore (D-Milwaukee), but neither have given any early indications about running for Governor.
On the Republican side, US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) has been publicly considering launching a challenge to Gov. Evers, so the open seat may be a greater enticement for him to enter the statewide race.
Since it is now highly unlikely the Wisconsin congressional districts will be redrawn before the 2026 election, most of the six US House Republicans are in strong political position. The one key exception is Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) who will again face a well-funded opponent, likely 2024 Democratic nominee Rebecca Cooke, in a politically marginal district.
Rep. Van Orden defeated Ms. Cooke 51-49% in 2024. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians rate the WI-3 seat as one of the most evenly divided districts in the nation with a 48.9D – 48.5R partisan lean. President Donald Trump (R), however, carried the district in all three of his elections and scoring a 53-45% victory here in November. Prior to Mr. Van Orden converting the seat to the Republican column in 2022, however, Democratic former Rep. Ron Kind held the seat for 26 years.
Ms. Cooke also became the top Democratic congressional challenger fundraiser during the 2nd Quarter, and she has already amassed a war chest of $1.27 million. Rep. Van Orden showed a campaign account balance of $1.67 million at the June 30 candidate financial disclosure quarterly deadline.
Looking at a difficult re-election race and considering the Republican nomination field could be wide open, it would not be surprising to see Rep. Van Orden at least consider a run for Governor.
Nationally, there are 38 gubernatorial elections in the 2025-26 election cycle, with two coming this year in New Jersey and Virginia. Of the 38, the Evers retirement decision moves the open race count to 18, mostly due to term limits. Overall, both parties risk 19 gubernatorial positions in the next election.
Expect a great deal of post-announcement jockeying to come forth in Wisconsin as the political players continue to digest Gov. Evers’ surprise retirement decision.
