March 12, 2026
The Illinois Senate Democratic primary, which will be determinative in terms of who will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), is scheduled for next Tuesday and the race is closing tight.
US Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi has led the open statewide primary from Day 1 and most polling, but not all, still shows him maintaining at least a small advantage. Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton has enjoyed strong outside support, which to a degree has checked Rep. Krishnamoorthi’s major campaign fundraising advantage (better than 7:1 over Stratton).
Furthermore, two March Public Policy Polling (PPP) surveys find her taking the slightest of leads. Yet, two other surveys still see Rep. Krishnamoorthi holding first place.
The Lt. Governor is creating controversy and absorbing push back, however, because of her new ad showing various individuals using censored profanity to express their displeasure with President Trump. Therefore, the final week of this campaign is proving interesting.
The most recent PPP poll for Democratic Lt. Governors Assn (3/9-10; 700 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) projects Ms. Stratton to a 32-30-13% advantage over Rep. Krishnamoorthi and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago). For a time early in the race, it appeared that Ms. Kelly could make this a three-way contest but she has failed to catch fire.
A week earlier, the PPP tracking survey (3/2-3; 577 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) found a similar 33-30% Stratton lead. The previous track (2/23-24; 546 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), however, saw Krishnamoorthi ahead by an equivalent 29-27% spread.
During the same early March time period, two different pollsters, Tulchin Research and Change Research, continued to detect Krishnamoorthi as the front runner by margins beyond the polling margin of error.
The most recent of these latter polls, from Tulchin (3/4-8, 600 IL likely Democratic primary voters), sees the Krishnamoorthi margin at a still substantial 39-28%. Change Research reported almost identical numbers. According to the CR results (3/3-5; 717 IL likely Democratic primary voters; online) the spread is 36-26 percent.
The combined surveys tell a conflicting story, but it is important to remember that all of the research studies showing Stratton leading come from one pollster, Public Policy Polling, using a consistent methodology. The studies repeatedly posting Krishnamoorthi to the first position are from seven different pollsters, even including Public Policy Polling, during the early June to late February period.
Considering Krishnamoorthi’s large cash reserves – he disclosed over $6.5 million in the bank through the February 25 Federal Election Commission pre-primary reporting period – one must surmise that most of the money, after a late media blitz is financed, will go toward voter turnout programs.
The Lt. Governor’s outside support comes largely from two sources. The first is a Super PAC spending approximately $7 million, which Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and his family largely fund, with the second being the Democratic Lt. Governor’s Association. It is also presumed that the Pritzker organization and labor unions supporting her effort will be running the major voter turnout programs on the Stratton campaign’s behalf.
Illinois is a plurality primary state, so the candidate attracting the most votes next Tuesday will be victorious irrespective of percentage attained. Therefore, either Rep. Krishnamoorthi or Lt. Gov. Stratton will claim the Democratic nomination on March 17 and then proceed into a long pro forma general election campaign.
With Illinois being one of the strongest Democratic states in the country, the Senate campaign will not be a Republican general election conversion target. Therefore, Tuesday’s winner will coast through to November and take the Senate seat when the new Congress is sworn into office next January and Sen. Durbin exits the political stage after what will be 44 years in Congress.
