August 21, 2025
The California proposed retribution redistricting map that key staff members at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) drew is now public, and the process to adopt such a plan is underway.
In order for the California Governor and legislators to replace their current congressional map before the 2030 census is completed, the leadership must find a way to usurp the California Citizens Redistricting Commission that the voters instituted through a 2010 ballot measure. The only way to cancel the Commission map, Governor Gavin Newsom and the majority Democrats believe, is to have another vote of the people to directly adopt a specific new map.
While the Newsom et al interpretation will likely be subject to a lawsuit with the objective of halting the process, the legislature is set to vote on a measure to place a new congressional map on a special election ballot this November. To approve a ballot referendum, each legislative chamber must do so with a 2/3 super majority. Considering the Democrats hold well over 2/3 of the seats in both the state Assembly and state Senate, placing the referendum on the ballot will likely be achieved.
Whether a majority of special election voters will adopt the map is open to question. For years, voters have listened to arguments about enacting “fair” district maps. In fact, this argument was the crux of the 2010 initiative campaign to create the citizens’ commission and 61.3% of the voters did so. Yet, in this special election, the message coming from Democratic leaders will now be to ‘vote yes for gerrymandering.’
Therefore, getting a majority vote on such a measure may be a more difficult political task than Gov. Newsom and his cohorts currently believe.
Thanks to the statisticians at The Down Ballot political blog, we see the data behind the proposed district configurations. The very rapidly completed calculations tell us how the 2024 and 2020 presidential elections unfolded in every new district. The statisticians also calculated how much of each current district is included in a new 2026 district.
To put the new map in context, we must remember that the current delegation is comprised of 43 Democrats and just nine Republicans. The new map is projected to possibly take the Republicans down to as low as four seats.
As we know, the DCCC California map is drawn as a retaliatory move against the Texas new redistricting map, where projections suggest that the new map could yield as many as five additional GOP seats.
It remains an important point to underscore that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) added redistricting issue to his special session in response to a US Justice Department directive to redraw the map. The DOJ cited a recent en banc US 5th Circuit Court of Appeals minority districts ruling that now cause some of the state’s congressional districts to become illegal.
The California Republican US House members facing the most difficult re-election situations should the proposed map become law are Reps. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville; District 1), Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento; District 3), and Ken Calvert (R-Corona; District 41).
Another GOP member, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego; District 48), would find himself in a much more competitive re-election campaign, while Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford; District 22), would see his already Democratic leaning seat further help a Democratic candidate. President Donald Trump, however, still carried the new District 22.
Rep. LaMalfa’s new 1st District, according to The Down Ballot statisticians, would contain just 43.8% of his current constituency and transform from a 61% Trump district to a 54% Kamala Harris CD.
Rep. Kiley would retain 46.8% of his current 3rd CD, and sees the presidential index move from 50% Trump to 55% Harris. Based upon his residence, he would technically be paired with Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento; District 6), but he would likely seek re-election in CA-3.
Rep. Calvert would find himself in the worst position of all the Republicans. A total of 50.5% of his current 41st District constituency would be placed in new District 38, which is 56% Harris and could mean a pairing with Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier; District 38), though it is likely she would run in new District 41. Most of Rep. Sanchez’s constituents are in either District 38 or District 31 that fellow Democrat Gil Cisneros (D-Covina) holds, but District 41 could be open, carries a Kamala Harris percentage of 57, and runs adjacent to her current district.
Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) would find most of her constituency in new District 41, but a third of her voters are in new District 40, which is a 56% Trump seat and does not have an incumbent. We could see Kim and Calvert both running for this seat.
The Issa 48th CD would keep only 32.3% of its current population base, while the presidential index moves from 56% Trump to 52% Harris.
Finally for the Republicans, the Valadao 22nd District keeps 84.3% of its current constituency and moves from 52% Trump to 50% Trump. Therefore, the region is not as partisan as some other district iterations that Congressman Valadao has previously faced.
The other Democrats most affected would be Reps. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach; District 42) who would retain only 35.2% of his constituency base; Dave Min (D-Irvine; District 47) would lose a majority of his current seat (52.7%), but his new territory is much more Democratic; while Scott Peters (D-San Diego; District 50) would keep only 43.5% of his current constituency.
While these Democratic members would be in strong shape against a Republican, a series of strong Democratic candidates could pose individual threats to each.
