October 21, 2025
The Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers that help us preview the resource standing of the key 2026 U.S. Senate contests. This update covers the most competitive campaigns from Alabama through Texas.
Alabama: Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) running for governor has opened the in-cycle Senate contest, and the Republican primary will be the determinative election. Attorney General Steve Marshall, U.S. Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), and retired Navy SEAL Jared Hudson are the major contenders. Mr. Hudson has $357,000 cash on hand, while Messrs. Marshall and Moore each have just over $555,000 in their campaign accounts. It is probable the May 19 primary will end with no candidate having majority support. If such is the case, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16 runoff election.
Florida: Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) must run in 2026 to fill the final two years of the current term. At the end of third quarter 2025, she held $3.6 million cash on hand. The most credible Democrat appears to be technology company executive Hector Mujica. He just announced his candidacy; therefore, he is not yet required to file a campaign financial disclosure report. Former Rep. Alan Grayson (D), who has tried and failed several times to win statewide office, holds only $127,000 in his campaign account. Sen. Moody has won two statewide elections as state attorney general. In a state turning safely Republican, she is favored to hold her seat.
Georgia: First-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is the 2026 election cycle’s leading fundraiser obtaining more than $54 million. From the gross receipts total, he holds $21.3 million in his account. The Republicans are headed for a competitive primary that will likely culminate in a June runoff. Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) and Mike Collins (R-Jackson) along with former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of former University of Georgia legendary coach Vince Dooley, are the top contenders.
Rep. Carter has done best on the fundraising circuit and holds just under $4 million in his campaign account. Rep. Collins has $2.3 million, and Mr. Dooley, $1.7 million. The Republicans’ collective problem is their candidates will have to spend heavily just to win the nomination while Sen. Ossoff can continue to build in unopposed fashion for the general election. Irrespective of who becomes the Republican nominee, the general election promises to evolve into a tight finish.
Illinois: Retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) leaves a contested March Democratic primary in his wake, one that will effectively elect the state’s next senator. At this point, U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) has a commanding lead in fundraising and polling. According to the third quarter FEC report, he has raised just under $25 million and holds a touch over $18 million in the bank. His two major opponents, Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) and Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton, are well behind in cash on hand. Rep. Kelly reports $2 million in available funds and Ms. Stratton just under $1 million. This means that Rep. Krishnamoorthi enjoys a respective 9:1 and 18:1 cash advantage over his two main opponents.
Kentucky: Without Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the open Senate race, the May Republican primary for all intents and purposes will determine retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s successor. Three candidates are vying for the nomination: U.S. Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, and businessman Nate Morris. The latter man has already been spending heavily and running attack ads, particularly against Rep. Barr. While Mr. Cameron enjoys significant polling leads, it is Rep. Barr who is in the best financial position. He holds $6.7 million in his federal campaign account, while Mr. Cameron has just under $630,000. Mr. Morris, who is self-financing, reported $1 million at the September 30 disclosure deadline.
Louisiana: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) may have dodged his toughest general election opponent (former Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) announced he would not run for the Senate), but the same can’t be said for the new partisan Republican primary. Louisiana changed its election law, so instead of a jungle primary in November, we will see an April 18 primary followed by a May 30 runoff election if no one reaches the majority support level in the first vote.
Recently, state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee, announced her Senate candidacy. This very likely means that U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) will not run as the two were unlikely to oppose each other. Already in the race are state Treasurer, former Deputy White House chief of staff, and ex-Congressman John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia), and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta.
Sen. Cassidy is well ahead in fundraising, but President Donald Trump clearly wants to settle a political score with him since the Louisianan was one of seven Republican senators to vote for impeachment regarding the January 6 U.S. Capitol controversy. Only two of those seven, Sens. Cassidy and Susan Collins, will be on the ballot in 2026. Four are no longer members (Sens. Ben Sasse (NE), Richard Burr (NC), Pat Toomey (PA), and Mitt Romney (UT)). Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is not in-cycle but is at least a potential gubernatorial candidate. In terms of fundraising, Sen. Cassidy posts $9.5 million in cash on hand. This compares to Sen. Miguez’s $2.5 million and Mr. Fleming’s $2.1 million. Rep. Emerson and Mr. Skrmetta are not yet required to file disclosure reports.
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) overcame $60 million of spending against her in 2020 and can expect another difficult campaign next year. She is well prepared, with $6.7 million in the bank. Her principal opponent will be Gov. Janet Mills (D), who just announced her candidacy. Like several others in this report, the governor is not yet required to file a financial disclosure report. Expect this race to be hot all the way through November and will carry at toss-up rating.
Massachusetts: We see a Democratic primary emerging between Bay State Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem). Both men have equivalent cash reserves ($2.7M for Markey; Moulton: $2.1M) but it is clear that Sen. Markey begins as the favorite. Rep. Moulton will try to make the incumbent’s age (Markey will be 80 years old at the time of the next election) an issue, but it is unlikely that such an attack will dissuade a majority of Democrats from voting for the veteran politician who first came to Congress in 1976. This primary challenge is a very long shot but the Massachusetts primary cycle is lengthy, and much can change. The nomination election is not scheduled until September 1, 2026.
Michigan: The open Michigan Senate race will be one of the top national contests next year. Republicans have successfully given former U.S. Representative and 2024 U.S. Senate nominee Mike Rogers a clear path to the nomination which helps solve one of their key past problem areas: fundraising. The fact that Mr. Rogers does not have to spend much to secure the nomination means virtually all fundraising assets will be directly applied to the general election. At this point, Mr. Rogers holds $2.7 million in his campaign account.
The Democrats, on the other hand, are embroiled in a tough primary that won’t be decided until August 4. The three major candidates have equivalent resources. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) holds $2.6 million, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) reports $1.4 million cash on hand, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed has also proven himself a strong fundraiser. His campaign account reports $1.8 in available resources. The Democratic primary is a toss-up at this point. Expect a tough campaign before a nominee is crowned and financial resources will be exhausted. Democrats are adept fundraisers, however, so the winner’s campaign treasury will be quickly replenished after the party unites post-primary.
Minnesota: The Land of 10,000 Lakes also features a competitive Democratic Senate primary. In this case, the candidates are vying to replace the retiring Senator Tina Smith (D). Today, it appears the nomination contest is evolving into a two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake). In Minnesota, the state political party endorsements are very influential. Usually, a candidate not obtaining the party endorsement withdraws from the race but is not required to do so. For this Senate primary, it is likely that both of these candidates will advance into the August 11 primary irrespective of the party endorsement process. According to the 3rd quarter financial reports, Ms. Craig has a significant fundraising advantage. She posts $2.9 million cash on hand as compared to just under $836,000 for Lt. Gov. Flanagan.
Nebraska: In 2024, Independent Dan Osborn became the election cycle’s surprise Senate candidate when he took several polling leads over Nebraska Senator Deb Fischer (R). In the end, Sen. Fischer claimed a six-point win, but Mr. Osborn’s strong fundraising effort and populist appeal turned what should have been an easy Fischer win into a competitive contest. Now, Mr. Osborn returns for another Senate campaign, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Once again, Mr. Osborn is likely to enjoy Democratic Party official support; therefore, the party won’t field its own candidate. Sen. Ricketts is still a strong favorite, but this contest is likely to again draw national attention. The 3rd Quarter financial disclosure reports show Sen. Ricketts holding $1.2 million in his campaign account while Mr. Osborn posts just under $517,000.
New Hampshire: Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has successfully defined himself as the consensus party candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). Republicans are likely to soon see a new entry. Former Sen. John E. Sununu, the son of former Governor and White House chief of staff John Sununu and brother of former four-term Governor Chris Sununu, is likely to soon enter the campaign. At this point, the leading Republican is former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate candidate Scott Brown. Early polling puts Sununu in position to tighten the race against Rep. Pappas, while the Congressman appears poised to easily defeat Mr. Brown. Rep. Pappas reports $2.6 million in his campaign account as compared to just under $803,000 for Mr. Brown. Since Mr. Sununu is not an official candidate, he is not yet required to file a disclosure report.
North Carolina: In what promises to be one of the defining national Senatorial contests, the general election candidates are unofficially set. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley are virtually unopposed for their respective nominations. Mr. Cooper has a major fundraising advantage. He already holds $8.6 million in his campaign account. Mr. Whatley, who started later, has just $1.1 million. Expect this race to go down to the wire. All North Carolina statewide races are tight, and this one will be no exception.
Ohio: The Ohio special election is another race where the general election is virtually set. Appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) will run to serve the final two years of the current term. Opposing him will be former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat in 2024. This will be an expensive race since then-Sen. Brown raised over $100 million for his last campaign. At this point, Mr. Brown has $5.9 million in cash on hand. Sen. Husted posts a similar $5.0 million. While Sen. Husted has the advantage because Ohio has been moving decidedly rightward in recent elections, we can count on seeing a very competitive contest here next year.
Texas: The Texas Senate situation has recently changed. With Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) joining the Senate Republican primary, the race is no longer solely a battle between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. The chances of the Republicans heading to a post-primary runoff are now high. For the Democrats, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred is no longer a lock for the 2026 party nomination. Polling shows him dropping. Announced candidate James Talarico, an Austin state Representative, is making significant gains. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), while not an announced candidate, is the clear polling leader. Not only is the Republican primary in a state of flux, but now the Democratic nomination battle is as well.
On the financial front, Sen. Cornyn is the strongest among all candidates. He holds $6.0 million in his campaign account, which compares favorably against AG Paxton ($3.2M) and Rep. Hunt ($1.5M). For the Democrats, it is Mr. Talarico who possesses the most money at $4.9 million. Rep. Crockett, again not officially in the race, has $4.8 million, and Mr. Allred finds himself also trailing in this category with $1.8 million. In 2024, Mr. Allred was one of the top Democratic fundraisers in the country. The Texas Senate race will be a race to watch from the March 3 primary until the campaign concludes on November 3.
