October 7, 2025
The University of New Hampshire recently released another of their regular Granite State polls, and we see further evidence of a budding competitive open New Hampshire U.S. Senate contest between U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu (R), son of former Governor and White House Chief of Staff John Sununu and brother of four-term NH Governor Chris Sununu.
The UNH poll (9/17-23; 1,361 NH adults; 1,235 likely general election voters; 529 likely NH Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Pappas leading a ballot test question with ex-Sen. Sununu 49-43%, but the sampling universe leans more Democratic than the actual voting data suggests. Therefore, it is likely that Sununu is a bit closer to Pappas than this spread foretells.
If ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who ran for the New Hampshire Senate seat in 2014 and lost to now-retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 51-48%, were the 2026 Republican nominee the Pappas lead would grow to 52-37%. On the current Republican Senate primary ballot test, Mr. Sununu posts a landslide lead over Mr. Brown, 42-19%.
Several data points provide evidence that the poll skews somewhat Democratic, though the answers have been weighted to balance the responses, at least to a degree.
The skew clues come from several questions. In terms of setting the sampling parameters, the official state voter registration party preference categorization totals 32.0% Republican, 28.3% Democratic, and 39.7% Unaffiliated voters. Total registration is recorded at 1,099,033 individuals.
The UNH poll divides the party identification categories into two different questions. First, is the partisan registered voter query, and this number is consistent with the official state voter reg totals. In the poll, the self-identified partisan total is 32-29-39% Republican, Democratic, and Unaffiliated voters.
A second “Party ID” cell segmentation, however, asks an additional question, and the responses swing toward the Democrats with a 44-41-14% partisan division (Democratic; Republican; Unaffiliated). It is surmised that the pollsters are attempting to see how the unaffiliateds break, which explains the partisan switch and the severe reduction from the actual number of Unaffiliated registered voters (39%) to those who self-identify as Unaffiliated (14%).
Such a partisan break is seemingly consistent with New Hampshire’s federal election results even though the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations suggest a very different pattern. In terms of the statewide partisan lean, DRA calculates a 52.0R – 45.2D party break. While the federal delegation (2 Senators; 2 Representatives) is unanimously Democratic, the Republicans back home enjoy a statewide trifecta (Governor; majorities in both legislative houses). Thus, the voting split between federal and state offices is diametrically opposed. Together, these points largely explain the high number of close elections seen in the state over the past few years.
Perhaps the most definitive skew clue is the reported presidential vote within the polling sample. In the 2024 election, the actual vote count found then-Vice President Kamala Harris defeating then-former President Donald Trump with a 50.3 – 47.6% victory margin. According to the poll respondents the presidential break is 51-45% in Ms. Harris’ favor; hence, these calculations suggest the 49-43% Pappas swing is potentially 2-3 percentage points closer.
Rep. Pappas was first elected to the House in 2018 after serving six years on the New Hampshire Executive Council [a unique five-member panel elected in districts that retains certain veto powers over the Governor relating to budget matters and personnel appointments], four years as Hillsborough (Manchester) County Treasurer, and four years in the state House of Representatives.
Mr. Pappas, in his four U.S. House terms, has turned what was the most volatile congressional district in the United States (from 2004 thru 2016, NH-1 had defeated more incumbents that any CD in the country), into a safe domain for himself, thus bringing some political stabilization to the eastern New Hampshire area.
John E. Sununu was elected to the 1st District U.S. House seat in 1996 and held the position for three terms. He was elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating then-Governor Shaheen. Six years later, Ms. Shaheen returned to challenge Sen. Sununu, and successfully unseated him. She, of course, was then re-elected in 2014 and 2020.
Assuming Mr. Sununu enters the 2026 U.S. Senate race, and all indications suggest he will, the New Hampshire open seat moves into the highly competitive category. Without Sununu as the GOP nominee, Rep. Pappas, who adroitly has positioned himself as the consensus Democratic candidate long before the state’s late September 8th primary, would see a clear path toward succeeding Sen. Shaheen.
