September 23, 2025
As we know, the swing state of Georgia will be one of the key battleground 2026 US Senate domains, and a new statewide poll confirms the race will present challenges for both sides.
The Quantus Insights Peach State poll finds first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) falling into a dead heat with one Republican US House member and leads another within the polling margin of error. Yet, as we have seen in some other places, the polling sample shows issue inconsistencies within the electorate.
According to the Quantus study (9/9-12; 624 GA likely general election voters; online and text), Sen. Ossoff and US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) are tied at 38% preference and US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) trails the Senator, 37-40%. Former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of long-time University of Georgia football coach Vince Dooley, is definitively behind Sen. Ossoff trailing 42-35 percent.
While other polls have shown similarly close ballot tests, the Quantus survey is interesting in that it delves more deeply into issues and reveals that both eventual nominees will have challenges in attempting to forge a winning coalition.
For example, while President Donald Trump scores a 49% job approval score, Sen. Ossoff posts 47%, yet the two are virtually diametrically opposed on the issue agenda. Furthermore, while Sen. Ossoff posts a 47:37% job approval index, only 36% of the same sampling universe believes he deserves re-election, and 49% believes it is “time for a change.”
In an overwhelming number (53%), the poll respondents cite the cost of living and inflation as the most important issue. Crime and public safety is second (13%), with jobs and the economy closely behind (12%). The number one response, however, for why costs are rising is President Trump’s tariffs and trade policies (41%). The Biden Administration economic policies were the second-most mentioned cause (27%).
When asked which party do the Georgia respondents trust more to handle the economic issues, 40% said the Democrats and only 39% answered Republicans. On bringing down the cost of living, it is again the Democrats holding a slight edge, 36-35%.
On crime, however, Republicans are more trusted, 42-29%. Same for immigration with a 48-28% Republican favorable split. By a 53-40% majority, the respondents favor the mass deportation policy, while only 31% support Ossoff’s border security position. A total of 76% support the crime prevention Laken Riley Act, a Republican bill that Sen. Ossoff supported.
An inconsistency appears when respondents are asked to list what they believe should be the next Senator’s priorities. In order, the responses were reducing taxes for working families (39%), cutting wasteful federal spending (24%), and reducing regulations that raise prices (21%). This is in line with the Republican message, but the sentiment is not fully translating to the Republican candidates, particularly among Independent voters.
While Sen. Ossoff is unopposed for the Democratic nomination, on the Republican side the Quantus poll found Rep. Collins leading Rep. Carter and Mr. Dooley, 25-20-7%. With a large undecided pool, this campaign will go down to the wire toward the May 19 primary. If no one receives 50%, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16 runoff election.
As a reminder for the general election, Georgia is one of two states that also features a runoff election if no candidate receives majority support in the November vote. The post-election runoff was forced in the past two Georgia Senate elections. If this situation again presents itself in 2026, the deciding runoff will be held on December 1.
As is the case in virtually every election, messaging will be key. Republicans must find a way to relate what are typically Georgia voter issue positions directly to the party’s Senate candidate, while Sen. Ossoff must find ways to improve his electoral standing even though his job approval is relatively good. It is important to note that in this poll’s ballot tests, the Senator did not break 40% preference against any Republican.
Along with the Senate races in Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas, the Georgia Senate battle will be a premier 2026 electoral contest.
