July 28, 2025
There has been much public speculation as to whether two-term Iowa Senator Joni Ernst (R) will seek re-election next year, and such talk has heightened because of circumspect actions emanating from the incumbent.
On a local radio show, however, Sen. Ernst appeared to tap down the rumors, indicating that such talk is “titter tatter.” The Senator further said an announcement is “coming in the fall,” but stopped short of saying she would make a declaration of candidacy. For the record, she has hired a campaign manager for the ’26 election cycle.
Sen. Ernst was first elected in 2014 with a 52-44% win over then-US Rep. Bruce Braley (D). Ms. Ernst, then a state Senator, began that race as an underdog but built a strong campaign, took advantage of a favorable Republican election cycle, and won going away.
Six years later, she was a Democratic target and faced Des Moines real estate business executive Theresa Greenfield (D) who had more in the way of campaign resources and led the Senator in polling throughout most of the race. In the end, Sen. Ernst again finished strong and pulled away to record a victory exceeding six percentage points.
Early this year when questions abounded whether she would support then-Defense Secretary designate Pete Hegseth, rumors were flying that President Donald Trump’s (R) Iowa leaders were attempting to convince Attorney General Brenna Bird (R) to challenge Sen. Ernst in the Republican primary.
After Ernst announced for Hegseth, which seemed to be the key proclamation that tipped the confirmation process in his favor, such primary challenge talk died down. Sen. Ernst, as did most Republicans, then supported every other Trump Administration nominee.
As a result, and at least for now, it does not appear that Sen. Ernst is threatened with a serious primary challenge, though she does face several opponents considered as minor candidates.
Preparing for the 2026 general election, this year appears differently. While there is talk that her re-election could become competitive, she is nowhere near the top of the Democratic conversion opportunity list, nor do the Democrats have a candidate who should be considered top tier at this time.
State Senator Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), state Representative J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City), and Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage have announced for the Senate. Of the three, Sen. Wahls is viewed as the strongest (Scholten has previously lost two congressional campaigns) but the eventual party nominee will have to win a competitive June Democratic primary before being in position to develop a credible bid against Sen. Ernst.
A viable challenge may unfold, but the type of general election campaign that can seriously threaten a multi-term incumbent in a state where the most recent voting trends are in the incumbent party’s favor, such as in Iowa, appears improbable.
Some, though, are pointing to Sen. Ernst’s 2nd quarter fundraising. While she raised just over $720,000 according to a report in The Down Ballot political blog, that dollar figure is only about 65% of the amount she garnered in the 2020 race during the commensurate time frame. Her cash-on-hand, however, appears strong, over $3.4 million for a race in a state without an expensive media market.
The fundraising data can also be explained not as a clue toward incumbent retirement but rather illustrating that in 2020 Sen. Ernst was running her first re-election campaign and considered a top tier Democratic target. Neither of those points currently apply.
Should the Senator reverse what now appears to be a course toward re-election, the Republicans have an ace in the proverbial bullpen. Three-term US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids), a former local news anchor, has secured what had been a marginal political district featuring one of Iowa’s most Democratic metro areas. With over $2.8 million in her own campaign account and not facing serious re-election pressure, Rep. Hinson is in position to quickly step in and fill the Senate void should Sen. Ernst ultimately retire.
In terms of the Hinson House seat, Republicans have a backup for this incumbent, too. Cedar Rapids Mayor Tiffany O’Donnell won her current position in the Democratic heart of Hinson’s 2nd Congressional District.
While speculation about Sen. Ernst’s future will continue until she makes a definitive re-election declaration, Republicans are in very favorable position to hold the Iowa Senate seat irrespective of the current incumbent’s eventual career decision.
