August 11, 2025
South Carolina
As has been expected for months, US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) officially entered the open South Carolina Governor’s campaign.
The June 2025 primary already has the makings of a Republican Battle Royal as at least five contenders will be competing for the party nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R).
Rep. Mace will be facing four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of US Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who announced last week, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg).
The personal battle rages between Mace and Wilson, which is likely to carry over into the campaign. Ms. Mace accuses AG Wilson of not being aggressive in his position and particularly so regarding her accusations against a former fiancé and several of his associates for alleged sexual related offenses.
Rep. Mace claims Wilson has ignored the case. The AG explains that his office has no jurisdiction over individual cases and that the South Carolina Law Enforcement Division (SLED), which does have jurisdiction, is addressing the matter. The SLED spokesperson indicates that a large number of interviews have been conducted regarding the Mace complaints, and the investigation has not been completed. The Congresswoman’s former fiancé and his associates all vehemently deny any wrongdoing.
The personal battle between who most believe are the two leading candidates could prove a distraction in the gubernatorial nomination contest. Often, when two candidates begin to attack each other neither win, and another comes from the outside to snatch the election. It remains to be seen how this race unfolds, but we can certainly expect major campaign fireworks and a great deal of national political attention.
The South Carolina election format is unique in that the state maintains a two-week runoff election after the primary should no candidate receive majority support. With a well-funded crowded field such as we will have in the race, the top two finishers advancing to the quick runoff is a virtual certainty.
The Palmetto State primary is scheduled for June 9, with the runoff, if necessary, calendared for June 23. The eventual Republican winner will become the prohibitive favorite to claim the Governorship in November of next year.
Rep. Mace’s decision to enter the Governor’s race will leave her 1st Congressional District open for the first time in a regular election cycle since 2010. The seat was open for a special election in 2013. Then-US Rep. Tim Scott (R) was appointed to the US Senate that year, thus opening the 1st District. Former Governor and ex-1st District Congressman Mark Sanford (R) won the special election.
In 2018, however, Sanford was defeated for renomination, thus opening the seat in the general election. Democrat Joe Cunningham won the 2018 election and became the first Democrat to represent the district in 30 years. Two years later, Ms. Mace, then a state Representative, unseated Mr. Cunningham to return the seat to the GOP column.
In her two-re-elections, Rep. Mace has averaged 57% of the vote, which is consistent with the Dave’s Redistricting App’s reported partisan lean. According to the DRA statisticians, SC-1 posts a 55.6R – 42.3D partisan lean, which is almost identical to the statewide partisan lean of 55.8R – 42.3D.
Rep. Mace vacating the Charleston area anchored district means there are 24 open House seats before the next election. Of the two dozen total, 13 are Republican held versus 11 for the Democrats. Four of the seats (3D and 1R) will be filled in special elections before the end of the year, thus reducing the regular election open seat count to 20.
The 1st District begins almost at the Georgia border and then stretches northeast along the Atlantic Ocean to the city of Georgetown’s outskirts. The district includes the communities of Beaufort, Hilton Head, Mt. Pleasant, and Moncks Corner, along with James Island, Kiawah Island, Sullivan’s Island, and the Isle of Palms. The 1st CD contains Beaufort and Berkeley Counties, along with parts of Charleston, Colleton, Dorchester, and Jasper counties.
President Donald Trump (R) carried the district with a 56-43% margin over Kamala Harris (D) in 2024, and defeated President Joe Biden (D) here, 53-45% in 2020.
Tennessee
As has been expected for months, US Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) announced that she will enter her state’s open Governor’s race, and the political road appears clear for an easy victory. Incumbent Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Upon her election, Ms. Blackburn would become the 51st Governor and the first female chief executive in the Volunteer State’s long history. Tennessee became the nation’s 16th state, officially admitted to the Union in 1796.
She must first battle US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) who, at this point, is the only other official Republican gubernatorial primary entry. With her strong electoral record and being a fervent Trump supporter, it is hard to see a scenario where she fails to claim the nomination. With Democratic strength at its nadir in the state, it becomes challenging to see how she would have difficulty in the general election.
Only one Republican gubernatorial poll has been published of the race, and that came back in January when Sen. Blackburn began confirming she was considering running for Governor. The Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm released the survey (1/13-16; 800 TN likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) and the results favored the Senator with a whopping 71-13% margin. The poll also found Sen. Blackburn scoring a clear 57% majority support figure in Rep. Rose’s 6th District.
Ms. Blackburn was originally elected to the Senate in 2018, defeating the state’s former two-term Governor, Phil Bredesen, in the general election by a 55-44% count. At the time, it appeared that Mr. Bredesen was in the strongest position of any Tennessee Democrat to win the Senate race, but then-Congresswoman Blackburn easily defeated him.
In November, Sen. Blackburn was re-elected in a landslide 64-34% victory over Nashville state Rep. Gloria Johnson in a political battle that was never close.
The Senator’s congressional career began with an open seat victory in western Tennessee’s 7th District 23 years ago. Over her eight US House elections, Ms. Blackburn averaged 73.9% of the vote and fell below the 70% threshold only twice, while running unopposed once in 2004. Prior to her service in Congress, Ms. Blackburn was elected to one four-year term in the Tennessee state Senate.
When talk of Sen. Blackburn running for Governor began, the Republican field was largely frozen with only Rep. Rose stepping forward to challenge her for the party nomination. Candidate filing in Tennessee for the August 6, 2026, primary ends on March 10, 2026, so much time remains for others to join the race and the situation could change. At this point, however, it appears most of the political jockeying will center around who might be appointed to fill the Senate seat after the new Governor is elected.
Should Sen. Blackburn be successful in her gubernatorial quest, she would be in position to appoint her successor. Since the Senator was just re-elected, the appointed Senator would serve until a special 2028 election would be held to fill the remaining balance of the term. This means the succeeding Senator would assume the office at some early point in 2027 and be eligible to run in the 2028 special election concurrent with the regular election schedule and calendar. The special election winner would then be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2030.
Ms. Blackburn is now the third sitting Senator who has announced plans to enter an open 2026 race for Governor. She joins Sens. Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL). Of the three, only Sen. Tuberville is risking his seat to enter the state’s gubernatorial campaign.
All three are favored to win their party’s nomination and claim the Governorship in the ’26 general election. Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) is also saying she is considering launching a gubernatorial bid.
