October 7, 2025
A Democratic challenger to Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) released an internal poll that he says positions him to end her congressional career. Ms. Pelosi, then the California Democratic Party chair, began her tenure with a special election victory in 1987 that would eventually lead to eight years directing the U.S. House.
Saikat Chakrabarti quarterbacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shocking upset 2018 Democratic primary victory over veteran New York U.S. Rep. Joe Crowley and now believes he can engineer a similar result for himself against a Democratic Party icon.
A Chakrabarti campaign poll from Beacon Research (9/12-20; 600 CA likely June jungle primary voters; text and live interview) finds Rep. Pelosi leading Mr. Chakrabarti 47-34%. After the respondents are read push questions featuring the 85-year-old incumbent’s age and whether or not a new generation of Democratic leadership should come to power, the ballot test then flips to 44-36% in Chakrabarti’s favor.
Though the poll could arguably be within the realm of accuracy at this early date, the results should not be taken particularly seriously. Most importantly, we are not looking at a Democratic primary battle on June 2nd. Instead, California uses the top two jungle primary system that places all candidates on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. The top two finishers in what is ostensibly a qualifying election then advance into the general election regardless of the percentages attained on the initial vote.
Thus, to think Rep. Pelosi would not advance into the general election under this system is absurd considering her consecutive 20 congressional election win streak from her San Francisco anchored CD.
The general election will yield an entirely different campaign because the turnout will be much larger in the November election, which benefits the former Speaker. Thus, it will not be enough for Mr. Chakrabarti to outpace Ms. Pelosi in the lower turnout June election because both contenders would advance into the general no matter what their attained percentages.
It is already becoming clear, however, that we will see a number of intra-party challenges to aging Democratic incumbents around the country from younger candidates. Several, such as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH; 78 years of age), and Reps. Danny Davis (D-IL; 84), and Jan Schakowsky (D-IL; 81), have already announced their retirements in the face of potential challengers who said they would use the “new generation of leadership” theme.
Others looking at serious challenges and facing the same theme are Reps. John Larson (D-CT; 77 years of age) and David Scott (D-GA; 80). Other aged 75+ Democratic members who look to be seeking re-election may have nomination challengers, but the opposition at this point does not look particularly strong. This list includes two past leadership members, Reps. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and Jim Clyburn (D-SC), along with Reps. Maxine Waters (D-CA) and Frederica Wilson (D-FL).
While Rep. Pelosi has filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, she has yet to formally announce her re-election candidacy. It is presumed, however, that she will seek a 21st term.
The California Congresswoman’s 11th District, fully contained on the San Francisco peninsula, is one of the most Democratic seats in the country. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the CA-11 partisan lean is 86.6D – 11.6R. In California, only two districts are more Democratic, and only by a point or two. The pair are the Oakland seat of freshman Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) along with two-term Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove’s (D) Los Angeles domain.
Should voters approve the proposed California redistricting map in the November 4 special election, the three strongest Democratic districts will remain virtually intact. This means that Ms. Pelosi’s general election opponent will almost assuredly be a Democrat, and very likely Mr. Chakrabarti.
Assuming the former Speaker runs for re-election, the chances of Mr. Chakrabarti or any other Democrat dethroning her are minimal at best. Therefore, though an early poll such as his Beacon Research study may suggest a modicum of weakness for the long-time House member, the final vote will again return her for yet another term.
