US Senate
Arkansas: Sen. Tom Cotton* won renomination in the Republican primary last Tuesday with 82% of the vote. The general election will now feature a contest between Sen. Cotton and Democratic farmer Hallie Shoffner. Sen. Cotton is a prohibitive favorite for re-election.
Florida: The University of North Florida conducted a survey of the state’s electorate, testing for the first time appointed Sen. Ashley Moody* (R) and potential Democratic nominee Alexander Vindman, a retired Army Lt. Colonel and ex-National Security Council staff member. According to the study (2/21-3/2; 786 FL likely general election voters; live interview & text), Sen. Moody would lead Mr. Vindman, 45-38%. State Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville), also an announced candidate, was similarly tested. In this ballot test, Sen. Moody would lead 46-38%.
Illinois: Public Policy Polling (2/23-24; 546 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) released the results of its survey for the Democratic Lt. Governors Association, which supports Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) in her bid for the US Senate. The results still find US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) leading the primary race, but his longtime advantage appears dissipating. The PPP results project Krishnamoorthi’s lead dropping to 29-27-13% over Ms. Stratton and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago). The Illinois primary is scheduled for March 17. The Democratic primary winner is a lock to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the general election.
Iowa: While many Iowa Democratic leaders are lining up behind state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) for the party’s US Senate nomination, GQR Research, conducting a survey for the Zach Wahls campaign (2/18-22; 605 IA likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), tells a different story. According to their data, state Senator Wahls (D-Des Moines) leads Rep. Turek by a wide 42-24% margin. The eventual Democratic nominee will very likely face US Rep. Ashley Hinson* (R-Marion/ Cedar Rapids) in the open US Senate battle. Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring after serving what will be two terms when the current Congress adjourns.
Maine: A just released University of New Hampshire Pine Tree State poll (2/12-16; 1,120 ME likely voters; 478 likely Democratic primary voters; 406 likely Republican primary voters; online) finds oysterman Graham Platner crushing Maine Gov. Janet Mills in the 2026 US Senate Democratic primary contest. According to the ballot test result, Mr. Platner, a Democratic Socialist with support from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), leads the Governor by a whopping 64-26% margin as the two move toward Maine’s June 9 primary election. The polls have been spotty. While UNH has always found Platner running way ahead of Mills, only three of the last four published surveys show him leading. The Pan Atlantic Research survey, from a firm that frequently polls the Maine electorate (11/29-12/7; 318 ME likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), found Gov. Mills posting a 47-37% advantage. Overall, however, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, Mr. Platner has an average 20.3 percentage advantage over Governor Mills for the length of their testing period. The eventual party nominee will challenge five-term Sen. Susan Collins* (R) in November.
Massachusetts: The regional UNH poll (2/12-16; 352 MA likely Democratic primary voters; online) finds Sen. Ed Markey leading his Democratic primary challengers, Congressman Seth Moulton (D-Salem) and sportswriter Alex Rikleen, by a 35-23-7% margin. This poll suggests the race is closer than most observers believe. In 2020, Sen. Markey withstood a primary challenge from then-US Representative Joseph P. Kennedy, III, with a 55-45% victory. Sen. Markey successfully defeated a member of the Kennedy family in their home state primary after beginning the race trailing in polling.
Montana: The Treasure State of Montana’s political world experienced a political earthquake literally at the close of candidate filing last week when two-term Sen. Steve Daines (R) withdrew his previous re-election candidacy statement and will instead retire.
Having his successor already prepped, US Attorney Kurt Alme (R) then filed for the office just as the deadline was expiring. In addition to Sen. Daines endorsing Mr. Alme, the Trump presidential endorsement was also pre-determined. With Mr. Alme as the only major Republican filing, his path to the party nomination appears virtually unencumbered. Democrats have five candidates, but possibly the most serious Alme opponent is former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, running as an Independent. Chances are strong that this last-minute gambit will work and Mr. Alme will become the state’s next US Senator.
Nebraska: Part of the reason that Independent Dan Osborn would have some chance against Sen. Pete Ricketts* (R) is that no Democratic candidate is on the ballot, thus giving the party the opportunity of officially endorsing. This was the situation Mr. Osborn enjoyed in 2024 when challenging Sen. Deb Fischer (R). Last week, however, two Democrats filed for the Senate. Pastor Bill Forbes, who is known for his pro-life stands, filed in the Democratic primary prompting Osborn to label him as a “stooge” for Sen. Ricketts. The other filing Democrat is Cindy Burbank, who is actually an Osborn supporter. Ms. Burbank indicates that she would decline the nomination if winning the Democratic primary in order to help Mr. Osborn. Therefore, we will see political intrigue in the May 12 Democratic primary.
Texas: The Texas primary was held on Tuesday, and incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced into a Senate Republican runoff scheduled for May 26. US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) finished a distant third and is now eliminated. President Donald Trump is dropping hints that he may endorse Sen. Cornyn and saying that the individual he does not back should concede the race. For his part, Mr. Paxton says he will drop out if the Senate passes the SAVE Act relating to citizenship voting and other election oriented law and procedure. On the Democratic side, state Rep. James Talarico defeated US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas). For the first time since the 1990s more Democrats voted in the Texas primary election than Republicans, which suggests the Senate general election will be a hotly contested campaign.
US House of Representatives
CA-1: Northern California’s 1st District has been at the focal point of California congressional politics for the past eight months, and last week the CD attracted more political attention. A new candidate declared for the 1st District’s special election, and the individual’s decision to run for the short term is at least somewhat head scratching. It was reported during the week that former state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) announced his special election candidacy. His move brings political risk that need not be undertaken. If Mr. McGuire simply remained in the Senate and ran only for the regular term he would be considered a prohibitive favorite, but not so for the special election. Instead of a 1st District under the current map that read 60.2R – 37.7D and occupied the territory in the northeastern corner of the state that Oregon and Nevada bordered, the new 1st is anchored in Sen. McGuire’s home county of Sonoma and encompasses Democratic territory in the outer Sacramento suburbs. The new 1st CD’s partisan lean is 55.2D – 44.1R. On January 6, seven-term 1st District US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) suddenly passed away. His death leads to a special election that will be held concurrently with the state’s June 2 statewide primary election in the Republican favorable district. GOP Assemblyman James Gallager (R-Yuba City) is the lone Republican to have announced his candidacy. The special election is scheduled for June 2nd.
FL-2: Former Congresswoman Gwen Graham (D) announced last week that she will not enter the open seat race from her now open congressional district. Ms. Graham served one term in the House from 2015-17. She is the daughter of former Governor and US Senator Bob Graham (D). After a court ordered redistricting drew her into a Republican seat, Ms. Graham did not seek re-election in 2016. Five-term US Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) is retiring. The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat in the 2026 general election.
FL-19: Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno (R) who had been contemplating entering the open 19th Congressional District race announced last week that he will not become a candidate. This leaves an interesting Republican primary since the major participants are all former elected officials from other states. Incumbent US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is running for Governor.
KS-3: US Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City) again made a public statement saying she is committed to seeking re-election unless the GOP state legislators redraw the congressional districts. At this time, it appears no redistricting move will be made in the legislature. Democratic leaders have been attempting to convince Rep. Davids to challenge Sen. Roger Marshall* (R) who is seeking a second term this year. It is very likely that Rep. Davids will seek re-election and win a fifth term in November.
ME-2: The aforementioned UNH poll also tested the 2nd Congressional District general election (2/12-16; 522 ME-2 likely general election voters; online) and found former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R) slightly leading his two top potential Democratic opponents. Opposite state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), Mr. LePage posts a 48-47% edge. He records a similar 47-46% margin over State Auditor Matt Dunlap (D). The 2nd District is the most Republican seat in the nation that sends a Democrat to Congress. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is retiring after what will be four terms when the congressional session adjourns. The 2nd CD also voted three consecutive times for President Donald Trump. In 2026, ME-2 is a prime GOP conversion opportunity race.
NC-4: Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam has conceded to US Rep. Valerie Foushee* (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) in the state’s 4th District Democratic primary. It appeared that Rep. Foushee’s small 1,202 vote lead over Ms. Allam would hold because only provisional and overseas ballots remain. Commissioner Allam and her campaign strategists agreed with the analysis. Now as the official nominee, Rep. Foushee becomes the heavy favorite in the Autumn.
MT-1: US Representative and former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) announced last week that he will not seek a third consecutive term from the state’s western, and more politically competitive, 1st Congressional District. The veteran Representative says he must endure several medical procedures related to long-term injuries sustained from his days as a Navy SEAL, which, though non-life threatening, would require him to be absent from Congress over what will likely be a long recovery period. Thus Mr. Zinke, who returned to the House in 2023 after winning the 2016 and ’18 at-large congressional elections (Montana was awarded a second congressional seat in the 2020 national apportionment), said that western Montana deserves a full-time Representative. In conjunction with the situation surrounding Sen. Daines’ departure as previously described, the Zinke move had obviously been quietly planned for a sustained period. As part of his retirement announcement, the Congressman endorsed radio talk show host Aaron Flint as his successor. The Zinke endorsement of Mr. Flint was quickly followed with an equivalent show of support from President Donald Trump proclaiming his “complete and total endorsement” for Mr. Flint. Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-MT) then publicly endorsed the new congressional candidate, as well.
Texas: Several open seat candidates won US House nominations outright last Tuesday. They are: Jessica Hart Steinmann (R-TX-8), Chris Gober (R-TX-10), Mark Teixeira (R-TX-21), Trever Nehls (R-TX-22), and Frederick Haynes (D-TX-30). All are prohibitive favorites to win their respective general elections.
TX-2: In a major upset, state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) defeated four-term US Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) in what has to be categorized as a landslide result especially since the winner was badly outspent. Mr. Toth’s strong base within the conservative movement and receiving a late boost from US Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) helped push the challenger to victory. Rep. Crenshaw is the first incumbent of this election cycle to be denied renomination, but several others are expected to follow as the primary cycle progresses.
TX-15: Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, as expected, won the 15th District Democratic primary and will advance into the general election to challenge two-term US Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen). According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the new district’s partisan lean is 51.4D – 46.8R, but President Donald Trump carried the seat with a whopping 59-41% margin in a district that is 79% Hispanic and stretches from the region east of San Antonio all the way to the Mexican border. Mr. Pulido is a strong Democratic recruit, so expect this to be another competitive Texas campaign later this year.
TX-18: It is now clear that the 18th CD Democratic primary featuring paired US Reps. Al Green (D-Houston) and Christian Menefee (D-Houston) will advance to a runoff election. Though former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards had withdrawn from the race, her name still appeared on last Tuesday’s ballot and attracted about 8% of the vote. Her total was enough to deny a majority to Rep. Menefee who held a slight lead. This means the race will be decided in a new election on May 26.
TX-19: Two candidates in retiring US Rep. Jodey Arrington’s (R-Lubbock) open 19th District will advance to a runoff election but only one of the participants is known. Agribusinessman Tom Sell has secured the first position. Separated by just 193 votes are Gov. Greg Abbott supported Abraham Enriquez and businessman Matt Smith, with only provisional and overseas ballots remaining to count. One of the latter two will advance into the runoff once the final vote tabulations are published.
TX-23: Now admitting to having an affair with his late staff member who committed suicide, thus recanting his previous claims that he had not engaged in adultery, three-term US Rep. Tony Gonzales* (R-San Antonio) on Thursday night conceded the 23rd District Republican runoff election to gun manufacturer Brandon Herrera. The Congressman also committed to serving the balance of the term. With such a small majority, the Republican leadership could not afford for the Congressman to resign. Therefore, the exit decision and announcement is seemingly the GOP leadership’s best-case scenario. Now they can openly support Herrera in order to hold the seat in the general election, while keeping Gonzales in the House to serve the balance of the term. The entire Gonzales scenario presented a difficult tightrope for Speaker Mike Johnson* and his leadership team to walk, but it appears they have made the best of a difficult and complex circumstance.
TX-32: In the new open 32nd District, businessman Jace Yarbrough, who enjoys support from both President Donald Trump and Governor Greg Abbott, is knocking on the door of 50%, but may fall just short once final tabulations are published. Therefore, second place finisher Ryan Binkley, the 2024 long shot presidential candidate who trails Yarbrough by approximately 30 percentage points, can either force the runoff or concede.
TX-33: Because of voting issues in Dallas County, a large number of ballots remain uncounted in the region’s 33rd Congressional District Democratic primary, but it is clear that former Congressman Colin Allred, who led the primary by 11 percentage points, and freshman US Rep. Julie Johnson* (D-Farmers Branch) will advance to a Democratic runoff election.
TX-38: In the Houston anchored open 38th District, businessman Jon Bonck is another contender close to, but not reaching, the majority support level required to secure a nomination. Like in District 32, it will be up to a trailing second-place finisher, likely businesswoman Shelly deZevallos, to decide if she will force a runoff or concede.
UT-4: Due to a redistricting court decision, one Utah Republican congressional seat has been collapsed in favor of drawing a Democratic seat in Salt Lake City. With all the courts backing the initial judicial decision, three-term US Rep. Burgess Owens* (R-Salt Lake City), who would turn 75 years of age before the election, announced that he will not seek re-election. His decision prevents Reps. Celeste Maloy* (R-Cedar City) and Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) from being paired in one district.
Governors
Arizona: The Noble Predictive Insights firm conducted one of their Arizona Governor race surveys and found incumbent Katie Hobbs (D) leading her two prospective rivals by a close margin, but in spreads that are improvements over her earlier polling standing. The Noble poll (2/23-26; 1,023 AZ registered voters; online) found Gov. Hobbs leading US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), 42-37%. If US Rep. David Schweikert* (R-Fountain Hills) were the Republican nominee, Gov. Hobbs’ advantage swells to 44-35%.
Florida: The University of North Florida’s poll (see Florida Senate above) also tested the impending open Sunshine State Governor’s contest. Here, we see US Rep. Byron Donalds (R) leading former Congressman David Jolly (D), 42-36%. If Orange County Executive Jerry Demings were the Democratic nominee, Rep. Donalds’ advantage would be a similar 43-36%. Rep. Donalds is a heavy favorite, at this point, to win the Republican nomination.
Maine: The previously covered UNH Maine poll also tested the state’s open Governor’s campaign. For the Democrats, former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah again leads the field with 25% support. Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is next with 19%, followed by ex-state Senate President Troy Jackson at 16%, ex-state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), at 10%, with businessman Angus King III, son of US Sen. Angus King (I), only drawing 5 percent. For the Republicans, ex-State Department official Bobby Charles posts a 28-12-5% advantage over former state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason, and Jonathan Bush, a relative of the former two Presidents, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.
New Mexico: The GBAO polling organization, surveying for the Deb Haaland for Governor campaign (2/9-12; 500 NM likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) posts Ms. Haaland, a former US Interior Secretary for the Biden Administration and an ex-Democratic Congresswoman, leading Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, 56-26% in the Democratic primary. The New Mexico primary is scheduled for June 2. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D).
Rhode Island: The University of New Hampshire also surveyed the Rhode Island electorate (2/12-16; 703 RI residents; 687 RI registered voters; online) as part of their regional New England survey series. The RI poll finds current Gov. Dan McKee (D) in deep trouble as he seeks a second full term. According to the UNH result data, former CVS CEO Helena Foulkes, who opposed Gov. McKee in 2022, leads him in a Democratic primary by a whopping 34-18 percent. This race has a long time to develop, however. The Ocean State primary is not until September 8.
Wisconsin: Marquette University Law School (2/11-19; 817 WI residents; 792 WI registered voters; live interview) released their regular quarterly Wisconsin poll, and finds a very tight Democratic primary race for the open Governor’s position. State Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison) leads former Lt. Governor and 2022 US Senate nominee Mandela Barnes and Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez, 11-10-3%, with all others not exceeding the 2% support level. For the Republicans, US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) jumps out to a big 35-2% lead over medical technician Andy Manske. The general election to replace retiring Gov. Tony Evers (D) is expected to be close.
State and Local
New York Redistricting: The US Supreme Court granted US Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ (R-Staten Island) motion to stay the New York state judge’s ruling that her 11th Congressional District is a racial gerrymander under the NY State Voting Rights Act. This was the first ever ruling that used a state law to invalidate a federal district. The SCOTUS action very likely means that the current New York map will remain in effect for the 2026 election.
Utah Redistricting: A three-judge federal panel in Utah turned down the Republican appeal of the new Beehive State congressional map, saying that the plaintiffs’ arguments are not likely to prevail at the upper court level. The judicial decision means that the new redistricting plan will be used in the 2026 election that will cost the Republicans one seat in the delegation. The map creates an open Salt Lake City Democratic district while pairing two Republican incumbents, Reps. Celeste Maloy* (R-Cedar City) and Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) into a new eastern 3rd CD.
Virginia Redistricting: Clarifying the confusing Old Dominion redistricting situation, the Virginia state Supreme Court justices ruled that the April 21 special redistricting referendum election may proceed but stressed that the high court has not ruled on the substance of the issues before them. Therefore, a court ruling in favor of the Republican appeal, if the justices were so to decide, could nullify a favorable referendum vote. The legislature and Governor have moved the candidate filing deadline and the Virginia primary to May 26 and August 4, respectively, to yield more time to finalize the contentious issues.
