August 21, 2025
U.S. Senate
Alabama: Alabama US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) made his expected entry into the open US Senate race official. He will at least compete against two-term Attorney General Steve Marshall in the Republican primary. The eventual party nominee will become the prohibitive favorite to win the general election. Rep. Moore’s move will open the state’s 1st Congressional District, yielding a competitive Republican primary.
Georgia: The TIPP Poll organization released the results of their new survey (7/28-8/1; 2,956 GA registered voters; online) that forecasts US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) potentially as Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) top challenger. According to the related ballot test, Sen. Ossoff’s edge over Rep. Collins would be a scant 45-44%. The other Republican candidates also poll well against Sen. Ossoff but draw less support than Rep. Collins. Savannah area Congressman Buddy Carter (R-Pooler) would pull within 44-40% of the Senator. Former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, son of legendary Georgia University football coach Vince Dooley, would trail 44-39% in a hypothetical general election pairing with the first-term incumbent. TIPP also surveyed the likely Republican primary voters and found Rep. Collins leading Rep. Carter and Mr. Dooley, 25-19-7%. Familiarity with the Republican candidates is not particularly high, however. This means the candidates will have to spend heavily during the nomination period just to win the right to challenge Sen. Ossoff.
Iowa: State Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City) withdrew last week from the Senate race amongst a growing Democratic primary. While leaving the race, Mr. Scholten endorsed state Rep. Josh Turek’s (D-Council Bluffs) US Senate effort. Also in the Democratic primary are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage. While not yet officially announced, two-term Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is expected to seek re-election
Illinois: A new internal campaign poll for US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) finds a large lead developing. Z to A polling (for the Krishnamoorthi campaign; 8/8-10; 615 IL likely Democratic primary voters; online), projects Rep. Krishnamoorthi holding a 38-17-7% lead over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), respectively. When those leaning to one of the candidates are added, the Krishnamoorthi advantage expands to 51-28-13 percent. In June, the GBAO research firm released an Illinois Senate survey (6/5-10; 1,200 IL likely Democratic primary voters) that posted Mr. Krishnamoorthi to a 32-19-14% edge over Lt. Gov. Stratton and Rep. Kelly so the more recent data suggests an expansion of the previous lead.
Maine: So far, the Democrats have not produced a major candidate to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but reports suggest that Attorney General Aaron Frey (D) is likely to run. If so, the move would suggest that outgoing Gov. Janet Mills (D) may not enter the Senate race. In Maine, the Attorney General is elected through a vote of the state legislature and not the voters. Mr. Frey has not previously run for a statewide elected office. Prior to being appointed as Attorney General, he served three terms in the Maine House of Representatives.
Ohio: Former US Senator Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat in November to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R), released an official announcement video this week saying he will challenge appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R). Also announcing for the Democratic nomination is venture capitalist Fred Ode who said he would invest millions into his race if it became clear he has a chance to win. Otherwise, his campaign will be short lived.
South Carolina: Former Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who just a few weeks ago announced a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), has already ended his effort. Remaining in the GOP primary race are wealthy businessman Mark Lynch, Project 2025 founder Paul Dans, and several minor candidates. Sen. Graham is the prohibitive favorite for renomination and re-election next year.
Texas: For the first time this year, US Senator John Cornyn has posted a polling lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton in their 2026 Texas Republican primary battle. Emerson College tested the Lone Star State electorate (8/11-12; 1,000 TX registered voters; 491 TX self-identified Republican voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results project Sen. Cornyn only edging AG Paxton by a scant 30-29%, but the survey clearly shows positive movement for the veteran incumbent. Both Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton would lead former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D) in general election pairings. Sen. Cornyn would top Mr. Allred 45-38%, while Mr. Paxton posts a smaller 48-44% advantage. The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University also released US Senate poll results. Their survey (8/6-12; 1,500 TX Republican primary voters; online) found Mr. Paxton leading 44-39%, yet even this spread is a major improvement for Sen. Cornyn when compared to previous 2025 polling.
U.S. House of Representatives
AL-01: Former US Rep. Jerry Carl (R) formally announced that he will compete for the now open 1st District since incumbent Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) is running for the Senate. In 2024, Reps. Moore and Carl were paired by a court-ordered redistricting plan that forced the state to add another minority district. Also joining the race is State Rep. Rhett Marques (R) who secured the endorsement from Sen. Katie Britt (R).
AZ-06: Immigration attorney Mo Goldman (D) announced that he is ending his congressional campaign and endorsed retired Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza (D). With Ms. Mendoza already outraising Goldman by a 6:1 ratio according to the 2nd Quarter FEC campaign disclosure reports, Mr. Goldman decided he could not overcome Mendoza’s early advantage. Very likely, the move clinches the Democratic nomination for Mendoza meaning she will battle two-term US Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) in what is proving to be a politically marginal congressional district.
FL-06: Attacking freshman Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) as someone who lives far from the district he won in an April special election, Flagler County School Board chairman Will Furry announced that he will challenge the Congressman for renomination in the Florida Republican primary. The state Senate district that Mr. Fine represented before winning his congressional seat is approximately 100 miles from the 6th CD border, suggesting that Fine’s familiarity with the congressional district could become a significant issue in the 2026 GOP primary campaign.
IN-04: State Rep. Chris Haggard (R-Mooresville) announced that he will challenge either US Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle) or state Rep. Beau Baird (R-Greencastle) for the congressional seat next year. Mr. Haggard said he will run against “whichever Baird enters the race.” It has long been thought that state Rep. Baird would attempt to succeed his father with the latter man decides to retire. For his part, Congressman Baird says he will seek re-election in 2026.
IA-02: State Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque), who was first elected to the legislature in 2018 and is an ordained minister, announced that she will enter the Democratic congressional primary to challenge US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) next year. Rep. Hinson is in strong political and financial shape (almost $2 million cash-on-hand) and will be difficult to unseat as she moves forward with her quest for a fourth term.
NV-03: Cardiologist James Lally announced a Democratic primary challenge from the left to four-term US Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas). The politically marginal 3rd District will likely be one of the few toss-up general election battles we will see in 2026, redistricting notwithstanding. While it is unlikely that Rep. Lee would lose renomination, a battle from a self-funding opponent could force her to spend significant dollars in a June election. Already seven Republicans have announced their candidacies in what promises to be a competitive GOP primary campaign.
TN-07: Candidate filing has closed for the October 7 special primary elections, the first step toward filling Tennessee’s vacant 7th Congressional District seat after former Rep. Mark Green (R) resigned in July. A total of 11 Republicans, including three state Representatives, four Democrats, including three state Representatives, and four Independents have filed for their respective special primary election. The eventual party nominees will then compete in an October 2 special general election. The 7th District carries a partisan lean of 55.1R – 42.1D. President Donald Trump carried the district last November with 60.4% of the vote. Democrats claim their nominee will be competitive, but the eventual GOP standard bearer will begin the special election as the clear favorite.
TX-18: A new internal campaign poll was released for the TX-18 special election scheduled for November 4. A large field of 32 announced candidates are competing for the opportunity of replacing the late US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston). The eventual winner, however, may have a very short tenure in Congress. Once the new redistricting map is enacted, the new House member will very likely be forced to face US Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a paired incumbent situation. Former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-statewide candidate Amanda Edwards (D) released the results of her campaign’s Brilliant Corners survey (7/20-23; 500 TX-18 likely special election voters; live interview) that found her leading former Miss Universe contestant Carmen Maria Montiel (R), state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D-Houston), Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D), and George Foreman IV (I), 18-12-11-10-6%, respectively.
TX-21: Texas US Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) will not seek re-election in 2026 as he announced his statewide candidacy for Texas Attorney General. The move will open a safely Republican seat even under the new map though in a different configuration. Thus, we will likely see a highly competitive Republican primary with the winner clinching the seat in November.
TX-23: Gun manufacturer Brandon Herrera, who forced US Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) into a 2024 Republican runoff election, announced that he will return for a re-match. In the runoff, Rep. Gonzales just slipped past Mr. Herrera with a 354 vote margin, so another hard fought contest is expected.
VA-08: Alexandria City Councilman Mo Seifeldein announced that he will launch a Democratic primary challenge to six-term Congressman Don Beyer (D-Alexandria) in another situation nationally where a younger Democrat is challenging an older incumbent – Rep. Beyer will be 76 years of age at the next election – and using the age argument as an issue in the campaign. Rep. Beyer will be favored for renomination.
WA-03: State Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Chehalis), as expected, announced his congressional candidacy in what is the second-most Republican seat that elects a Democrat to the US House. Mr. Braun entering the race gives the GOP an upgraded candidate to challenge two-term Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County). This race promises to become a premier national congressional campaign.
Redistricting
California: The California proposed retribution redistricting map in response to the Texas redraw is now public, and the process to adopt such a plan occurred this week. In order for the California Governor and legislators to replace their current congressional map before the 2030 census is completed, the leadership must find a way to usurp the California Citizens Redistricting Commission that the voters instituted through a 2010 ballot measure. The only way to cancel the Commission map, Governor Gavin Newsom and the majority Democrats believe, is to have another vote of the people to directly adopt a specific new map. To approve a ballot referendum, each legislative chamber must do so with a 2/3 super majority, and such vote was cast. Count on a legal challenge being filed to contest the process. If the redistricting plan goes to the ballot, the voters would then have to adopt the map in a November special election.
Louisiana: The US Supreme Court has set October 15 as the date the Louisiana redistricting case will again be heard. The high court held previous oral arguments but failed to reach a ruling decision in the previous Supreme Court session. It is presumed the court will rule on this case before the end of this year. Affirming the lower court order would mean a redraw of the state’s current congressional map.
Governorships
Alaska: Former state Sen. Tom Begich (D), son of the late US Rep. Nick Begich (D), brother to former US Senator Mark Begich (D), and uncle to at-large US Rep Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak), announced his campaign for Governor last week. The move is a curious one since former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D), who is still viewed very favorably statewide, is also expected to become a gubernatorial candidate. Should she decide to run, Mr. Begich says he would end his own campaign. Since two-term Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, the Alaska Governor’s race will feature a competitive open campaign.
Arizona: Eight-term Arizona US Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/ Scottsdale) is confirming reports that he is considering entering the 2026 Governor’s race. In the statewide Republican primary contest are US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), who is leading in early polling, and Karrin Taylor Robson who ran for Governor in 2022 but failed to overtake Kari Lake for the GOP nomination. Earlier in the year, President Trump issued a dual endorsement for Rep. Biggs and Ms. Robson, but her support was recently withdrawn because the President said she was not using his backing to its fullest benefit. With Robson likely stagnating, Rep. Schweikert may see the opportunity of overtaking Mr. Biggs in a GOP primary race that won’t be decided until August 4 of next year. The eventual Republican nominee will be highly competitive against Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) who defeated Ms. Lake by a scant 50.3 – 49.6% count in 2022.
Connecticut: Two state legislators announced their 2026 gubernatorial campaigns during the week, one from each party, even as Gov. Ned Lamont (D) decides whether to run for a third term. State Sen. Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich) and state Rep. Josh Elliott (D-Hamden) are the new gubernatorial entries. If Gov. Lamont announces for a third term, which is expected, he will be favored both for his party’s nomination and re-election.
New Jersey: The Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University released the results of their most recent statewide survey (7/31-8/11; 1,650 NJ likely 2025 general election voters; online) and find US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) continuing to lead former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) in the open Governor’s race. The initial ballot test found Ms. Sherrill topping Mr. Ciattarelli 44-35%. When leaners are added, the ballot test moves to 47-37%. It is clear that Ms. Sherrill is the race leader, but the margin may be tighter than the data indicates since Mr. Ciattarelli has consistently outperformed the polling in his previous elections. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
New York: An early August Siena College poll (8/4-7; 813 NY registered voters; live interview and online) provides good news to often embattled Gov. Kathy Hochul. In the Democratic primary, Gov. Hochul swamps Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, 50-15%. In a general election pairing versus US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), the Governor would lead 45-31%. In other favorable Hochul news, US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx), who for months was openly considering challenging the Governor for renomination, called for Democratic unity in announcing he is endorsing the Governor for re-election and cautions others “not to underestimate Kathy Hochul.”
Pennsylvania: As expected, Republican State Treasurer Stacey Garrity announced she will seek the GOP nomination to challenge Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). Ms. Garrity was first elected to her statewide post in 2020 and does not have to risk the position for a 2026 run. She next stands for re-election in 2028. Ms. Garrity made her intentions as a probable gubernatorial candidate clear when US Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon) announced in July that he would seek re-election instead of entering the 2026 Governor’s race. Ms. Garrity is expected to draw little in the way of primary opposition but will be an underdog to Gov. Shapiro in the general election.
South Carolina: US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) released the results of her most recent internal campaign poll (8/8-11; 600 SC likely Republican primary voters; live interview and text), which posts her to a 25-17-10-6-3% lead over Attorney General Alan Wilson, US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), Lt. Governor Pamela Evette, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg), respectively. Even running against the state’s sitting Lt. Governor, four-term Attorney General, and a five-term Congressman, Rep. Mace was the best known among the respondents. A total of 83% recognized her name, and her favorability index stood at 50:21 positive to negative. Despite winning four statewide elections, AG Wilson’s name ID was only 60% according to this poll, but his favorability index is a strong 37:8.
Tennessee: The first poll since Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) announced for Governor has been released. Targoz Market Research published their flash poll results (7/28-8/1; 1,200 TN registered voters) finding Sen. Blackburn, as expected, posting a commanding lead over US Rep. John Rose (R-Clarksville). The Republican primary ballot test finds the Senator leading Rep. Rose 66-14%. If elected, Sen. Blackburn will become the first female Governor in Tennessee history.
Wisconsin: US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) released the results of a Fabrizio Lee & Associates poll (7/28-31; 600 WI likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) that post him to a 39-13-10% lead over Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and manufacturing company CEO Bill Berrien. The Tiffany lead expands to 60-8% over Schoemann when informed Rep. Tiffany would have President Trump’s endorsement. Since Gov. Tony Evers (D) recently announced that he would not seek a third term, the 2026 Wisconsin Governor’s race will be open. For the Democrats, Secretary of State and former State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski became the first party member to formally announce his or her gubernatorial candidacy.
Wyoming: State Sen. Eric Barlow (R-Gillette) became the first elected official to announce for Governor. The potential field is largely frozen awaiting a decision from Gov. Mark Gordon (R). While Wyoming has a two-term limit law for Governor, many legal scholars believe the prohibition could be successfully challenged. There is discussion that Gov. Gordon may do so in order to seek a third term. Gov. Gordon has yet to make any public statement about the term limit, but he also hasn’t denied attempting to seek a third term. Should the Governor decide to retire, at-large US Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) is viewed as a likely gubernatorial candidate. The Wyoming primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026, with a candidate filing deadline to be set for a date next May. Therefore, much time remains for this situation to develop.
