September 9, 2025
U.S. Senate
Iowa: As predicted, Iowa Republican US Sen. Joni Ernst who won her previous elections in 2014 and 2020, announced that she will not seek re-election next year. Immediately, and also as predicted, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) entered the race for the now open Senate seat. Rep. Hinson will be a viable GOP candidate, so the party will still be in strong position to hold the Iowa seat. Announced Democratic candidates are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage. It is unlikely we will see much change in the Democratic field despite the seat now being open.
Kansas: Immigration attorney Anne Parelkar (D) announced that she will challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R) next year. Ms. Parelkar joins two other Democrats in the primary, including former USDA official Christy Davis. Sen. Marshall is a prohibitive favorite to win a second term in 2026.
Maine: While Gov. Janet Mills (D) said she will decide in later about whether to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), other Democrats are making moves. Now in the race are two Democratic businessmen, oyster farmer Graham Platner and Maine Beer Company co-founder Dan Kleban. Sen. Collins, originally elected in 1996, is running for a sixth term.
Mississippi: Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom, who represents a four-county region, announced that he will seek his party’s nomination to challenge US Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R). Little has been mentioned about this race so far; therefore, it is quite possible that a Hyde-Smith/Colom general election could be what transpires after the early Mississippi primary on March 10.
New Hampshire: While national Republicans attempted unsuccessfully to recruit former Governor Chris Sununu (R) into the open New Hampshire Senate race, John E. Sununu, brother of the retired chief executive and himself a former Senator and US House member, has been traveling the state and may enter the race. Ex-Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee Scott Brown is an announced candidate, but he is trailing US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) in polling and would likely not make this open race a top tier national campaign. A recent St. Anselm College poll (8/26-27; 1,800 NH registered voters; online) found Rep. Pappas outpacing former Sen. Brown, 48-37%.
Ohio: Emerson College conducted a new statewide Ohio poll (8/18-19; 1,000 OH registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) that finds appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) leading former US Senator Sherrod Brown (D), 50-44%. Mr. Brown was defeated in 2024 when attempting to win a fourth US Senate term. His comeback will be uphill. Despite losing last November, he garnered more votes in his loss than he did in his previous 2018 win, which is an indication as to how far right Ohio has swung during the succeeding six-year period.
Texas: Sen. John Cornyn continues to show movement in his Republican primary race against Attorney General Ken Paxton. A new co/efficient survey (8/25-27; 818 TX likely Republican primary voters) finds the Senator pulling to within a 39-36% ballot test result with AG Paxton still leading. Before August, the Paxton average polling lead was 16 percentage points, but the four most recent surveys find Paxton leading in three of four studies but with an average edge of just over four points.
U.S. House of Representatives
AL-01: Former US Rep. Jerry Carl (R) released a survey posting him in strong position for his comeback attempt. An internal Carl campaign Cygnal poll (8/21-22; 400 AL-1 likely Republican primary voters) sees Mr. Carl leading state Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) and Army veteran Joshua McKee, 29-5-2%, respectively. Mr. Carl was defeated in the 2024 Republican primary when a court-ordered redistricting forced he and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) into the same district.
CA-07: Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang (D) has filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission in anticipation of a Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento). The Congresswoman succeeded her husband in the House, Rep. Bob Matsui, when he passed away and has served since early 2005. Rep. Matsui says she will seek re-election.
CA-22: A released Public Policy Polling survey (8/6-8; 547 CA-22 likely general election voters; text and live interview) finds US Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) and state Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains (D-Bakersfield) tied at 22% preference apiece. The poll was taken prior to the new California map being released which would make a new 22nd District about a point more Democratic. Irrespective of the partisan number, Rep. Valadao has been able to win in heavily Democratic territory over six elections but did lose in 2018 to Democrat T.J. Cox. Rep. Valadao returned to re-capture the seat in 2020.
CA-38: Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis (D) says she will run in the new 38th District if the special redistricting election replaces the current congressional map. The move would send Solis back to the US House where she served from 2001-2009 before President Barack Obama chose her as his US Labor Secretary. After serving in that position during the first Obama Administration, she returned to southern California to seek her seat on the Los Angeles County Board. The move back to Congress would be an interesting one, since the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, a panel of just five members, is viewed as one of the most powerful bodies in California. In fact, Supervisor Janice Hahn (D) gave up a seat in Congress to run for the Board in 2016.
CT-01: State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford) became the fourth Democrat to launch a primary challenge against veteran US Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford). Ms. Gilchrest joins former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, Hartford School Board Member Ruth Fortune, and Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry in a primary challenge race that has become very serious. Rep. Larson, who is battling health issues, has not yet confirmed that he will seek re-election to a 15th term.
GA-13: Reality show personality Heavenly Kimes (D) became the ninth Democrat to launch a primary challenge against Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). The three leading candidates appear to be veteran state Senator Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur), state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) and ex-Gwinnett School Board chairman Everton Blair. The Congressman has yet to officially declare for re-election.
IA-02: With incumbent Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) now in the Senate race, we already see action coming from the Republican sector for her open House seat. Former US Rep. Rod Blum, who held the seat for two terms until losing to Democrat Abby Finkenauer in 2018, is expressing interest in running, as is ex-state Sen. Joe Mitchell and state Rep. Shannon Lundgren (R-Peosta). Announced Democrats include state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque), retired Army Lt. Col. and ex-nursing college dean Kathy Dolter, 2020 local office nominee Don Primus, and pastor and non-profit organization founder Clint Twedt-Ball.
KS-02: Veterinarian and West Point graduate Don Coover (D) becomes the first Democrat to launch a challenge to freshman US Representative and former Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R-Independence/Topeka). Mr. Schmidt was also the 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee.
MI-07: Climate activist William Lawrence became the seventh Democrat to enter the party primary with the eventual winner challenging freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte/Lansing). The 7th District was the only open seat to switch parties in the 2024 election. The 2026 campaign will also be a toss-up contest.
NJ-11: Four-term state Rep. Martin Zamora (R-Clovis) announced that he will challenge three-term US Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-Santa Fe) giving Republicans a credible candidate in a district that is on the outer edge of competitiveness. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.2D – 41.6R partisan lean. Kamala Harris carried the district over President Donald Trump with a 52-46% margin.
NM-03: Former US Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) is reportedly organizing a Super PAC for a potential special election campaign to replace US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) if she is elected Governor in November. Rep. Malinowski represented the 7th District for two terms until losing to current Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) in 2022. Part of Mr. Malinowski’s original 7th CD is in the current 11th District.
NY-12: Empire State Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City) announced that he will not seek an 18th term next year. The decision ends a long New York political career which featured Mr. Nadler holding an elected office consecutively since the beginning of 1977 when adding his combined time in Congress and the New York State Assembly. In an interview with the New York Times, Rep. Nadler indicated that the generation gap was an issue in making his retirement decision. He said, “[w]atching the Biden thing really said something about the necessity for generational change in the party, and I think I want to respect that…” Mr. Nadler will be 79 years of age when the 2026 election is held. Rep. Nadler’s 12th Congressional District lies fully within the Borough of Manhattan and contains most of Central Park. It stretches from the island’s western border at the Hudson River across Manhattan to the East River. The Nadler departure is likely to leave a very crowded Democratic primary in his wake. With a partisan lean of 83.9D – 13.7R (Dave’s Redistricting App projection), the Nadler successor will be the eventual Democratic nominee. One name that has been mentioned is former First Daughter Chelsea Clinton, but a statement was released saying that Ms. Clinton will not enter the race.
NC-01: State Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Powells Point) announced that he will compete for the Republican nomination to challenge two-term US Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill). Already in the Republican primary race is Rocky Mount Mayor and former congressional candidate Sandy Roberson. The general election will be competitive. In 2024, Rep. Davis was re-elected with only a 49-48 percentage margin, while President Trump carried the seat, 51-48%.
PA-07: Pennsylvania firefighters union president Bob Brooks becomes the fifth Democrat to compete for the party nomination to challenge freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown). The toss-up PA-7 race will be one of the top campaigns in the country to decide the next House majority.
PA-08: Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) announced that she will challenge freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton). In 2024, Mr. Bresnahan unseated six-term US Rep. Matt Cartwright who is not returning for a re-match. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 50.0D – 47.9R partisan lean. Both Rep. Bresnahan and President Donald Trump exceeded the partisan lean in November. The President defeated Kamala Harris here, 54-45%.
SC-05: South Carolina US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who is leaving the House to run for Governor, has endorsed state Sen. Wes Climer (R-Rock Hill) as his successor. At this point, Sen. Climer has the opportunity of becoming a consensus candidate in a Republican open seat. No other major Republican has yet stepped forward even though Rep. Norman announced his gubernatorial campaign in late July.
TN-06: Brad Gaines, the father of women’s sports advocate and former college swimmer Riley Gaines, filed papers to run in his state’s open 6th Congressional District. Obviously, the issue of men competing in women’s sports will be at the forefront of the Republican primary campaign. We can expect a crowded Republican primary, with the winner clinching the open seat in November. Incumbent GOP Congressman John Rose is running for Governor.
TX-21: Former New York Yankees and Texas Rangers star baseball player Mark Teixeira (R) announced his congressional candidacy for the seat that Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) is vacating. Other potential Republican candidates are Federal Election Commissioner Trey Trainor and State Republican Executive Committee member Michael Gleeson. The eventual Republican nominee becomes a prohibitive favorite in the open general election.
TX-33: US Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth), who loses his Ft. Worth base but could run in a new 33rd District that is fully contained in Dallas County, indicates he may instead run statewide or for a local office in Ft. Worth’s Tarrant County. The move would then give freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch/Dallas) a winnable place to run meaning she would not challenge Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving) in District 24.
TX-34: Former Rep. Mayra Flores (R) who earlier in the year indicated she was moving to the 28th District to challenge Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) is now returning to the Brownsville anchored district to again oppose Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen). With the Republican partisan lean substantially increased in TX-34, Ms. Flores’ move back to this CD makes a great deal of political sense. In 2024, the two battled to a 51-49% Gonzalez tight victory.
TX-37: While veteran US Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) says he will retire rather than face a paired Democratic primary campaign against Rep. Greg Casar (D-Austin) under the new Texas map, another key Austin political figure has no such trepidation. State Sen. Sarah Eckhardt (D-Austin) confirms that she is considering entering the 37th District primary, an area where Rep. Casar only represents 32% of the new constituency.
VA-01: Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor, who lost a close Attorney General’s Democratic primary in June, announced that she is joining the crowded field hoping to challenge veteran US Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross). The Democratic primary field has now swelled to eleven candidates. Rep. Wittman was first elected in a 2007 special election. He won re-election in 2024 with a 56-44% margin. President Trump carried the district 51.8 – 46.9%, but it is the only Virginia congressional district where his percentage dropped from 2020. Therefore, Democrats now believe they have a better chance of converting the seat, hence the large candidate field.
Redistricting
Florida: The special legislative committee constructed to draw a new congressional map is meeting and developing a proposed plan. The legislative leadership says the committee product, should the members develop a final version, will be addressed when the legislature convenes on January 6, 2026. The Florida candidate filing deadline is April 24th for an August 18th plurality primary election.
Missouri: The Missouri legislature has reconvened for purposes of redrawing the state’s congressional map. A new draw will likely target Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Kansas City) 5th District in an attempt to increase the Republican seat count in the eight member delegation to 7R-1D.
Utah: Considering the new judicial ruling that the state must redraw its congressional map means a new Democratic Salt Lake City downtown district could be put in place. Former Rep. Ben McAdams (D) confirms that he would consider making a political comeback. Mr. McAdams was first elected to the 4th District in 2018 but was defeated for re-election in 2020.
Governorships
Alaska: Appointed Attorney General Treg Taylor (R) is scheduled to soon resign from his position in order to enter the Republican primary for Governor. With former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) expected to become a gubernatorial candidate and leading in early polling, Republicans will need a strong candidate in order to hold the Alaska State House. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Arizona: Noble Predictive Insights conducted one of their regular Arizona polls (8/11-18; 948 AZ registered voters; 385 AZ likely Republican primary voters; online) and finds a surprise in the Republican primary. Previous polling suggested that Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is the leading candidate, but this ballot test result yields a 37-27% advantage for 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson. In general election polling, Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) again posts a slight lead against both Robson and Biggs, 40-38 and 39-37%, respectively. Clearly, Arizona will see yet another competitive statewide race in 2026.
California: We may see a new entry into the California Governor’s race. Democratic US Sen. Alex Padilla is indicating that he is considering becoming a gubernatorial candidate. The Senator says he will not decide until the special redistricting election concludes in November. Currently, former Congresswoman Katie Porter appears to be the leading candidate. Gov. Gavin Newsom is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Mr. Padilla run for Governor, he would be the fourth Senator to do so, joining Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, Michael Bennet of Colorado, and Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn.
Florida: Former state House Speaker Paul Renner announced that he will join the open gubernatorial field, which has so far been US Rep. Byron Donalds’ (R-Naples) clear domain. Recently appointed Lt. Gov. Jay Collins is also reported to be considering the race. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).
Ohio: The aforementioned Emerson College statewide Ohio poll (8/18-19; 1,000 OH registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) [see Ohio Senate above] also posts businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, the officially endorsed Republican Party candidate, leading former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton (D) 49-39% and former Congressman Tim Ryan (D) 49-41%. Mr. Ryan recently said he would make a decision about entering the Governor’s race in September.
Oklahoma: A new regular Sooner Poll from Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates again finds Attorney General Gentner Drummond continuing to post a commanding lead in the open Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial primary. According to this most recent poll (8/4-10; 400 OK likely Republican primary voters; live interview), AG Drummond posts a 43-8-8% lead over Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters and former state House Speaker Charles McCall. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Virginia: A new coefficient polling firm survey (8/23-26; 1,025 VA likely voters) again finds former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R). This time the margin is again a relatively close 48-43 percent. Incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) is ineligible to run for a second term. Virginia is the only state that limits its Governors to just one term in office.
State and Local
Iowa State Senate: For the second time this year, a Democratic candidate won a state Senate special election in what should be a Republican district. Catelin Drey defeated her Republican opponent by a ten-point margin in a district where President Donald Trump scored an 11-point victory. This is another example of Republican underperformance in 2025 special elections.
New Orleans: A Faucheux Strategies survey (polling for WWL-TV Louisiana; 8/8-14; 600 New Orleans registered voters) projects Democratic City Councilwoman Helena Moreno holding a major lead over the field vying to replace term-limited Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the data, Ms. Moreno holds a 47-18-16% advantage over state Sen. Royce Duplessis (D) and City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for October 11th.
